DHUnplugged #328: Hakuna Matata Markets

Back to the trading desks – summer is over and now we may see trading volume pick up as there is plenty of news that may move markets.dhunplugged97

ISM manufacturing and services reports point to a slowdown while markets remain calm and investors ready to buy any dip.

Markets now seem to be in a Hakuna Matata phase with the idea that central banks keeping the punchbowl full ain’t no passing craze. It means no worries for the rest of your days – It’s our problem-free philosophy
Hakuna Matata!


Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

Summer is over - put away the white pants and shoes ... Markets liked the employment report. The good news is that it missed expectations of 171k+ and came in at 151k. This provides the stimulus bulls with the thought that the Fed will be on hold for longer. The USD dropped and markets moved higher for the week - snapping 2-weeks of losses. (Markets now seem to be in a Hakuna Matata phase)

The ISM Manufacturing Index came in BELOW 50 - showing contraction in the manufacturing sector of the U.S. economy.

ISM Manufacturing Chart

ISM Services Index at 51.4 versus expectations of 54.7 (July was 55.5) - U.S. services sector activity hit a 6-1/2 year-low in August amid sharp drops in production and orders, pointing to slowing economic growth that could further diminish prospects for an interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve this month.

Meanwhile - the PMI number in the U.K. had one of its biggest jumps in years as some of the Brexit worries have abated. On the news the British Pound jumped.

Group of 20 leaders pledged to use all available tools to help prop up global growth that’s weaker than it should be while avoiding competitive currency devaluations. Monetary policy alone can’t lead to balanced growth, and member nations are determined to use all monetary, fiscal, structural tools, the G-20 said in its final communique Monday after two-day leaders summit in Hangzhou, China.

WAIT! What happened to the Red Carpet? All G-20 leaders got red carpet on the stairs when arriving to China for the G-20 - except President Obama.

Obama Red Carpet Fiasco

Also for the G20 - Fireworks, compliments of North Korea - North Korea fired three ballistic missiles off its east coast Monday, South Korea's military said, in a show of force timed to the G-20 economic summit in China.

The price of crude surges with comments from the Saudi oil minister that they have something in the works (and agreed upon) with Russia to stabilize oil prices. BUT, in the end there was nothing more that just talk/idea that has no teeth or written plan of action. Oil rose to $46.50 on the headline then back down to $44 after details were released.
- UPDATE: As crude fell, IRAN is now making comments that they are in agreement to stabilize oil prices - crude reverses losses and closes near $45.

Elon Musk suffers another setback with the explosion of the SpaceX rocket last week. During routine pre-flight check of fuel - something went terribly wrong. Now, Israel's Space Communication Ltd said on Sunday it could seek $50 million or a free flight from Elon Musk's SpaceX after a Spacecom communications satellite was destroyed last week by an explosion at SpaceX's Florida launch site. (since the explosion happened pre-flight, insurance may not pay off)

Only one day away from the "big" Apple announcement/meeting. What to expect... Will this be a disappointment for the stock or do they have something amazing to announce?

A little late? Sears Holding Corp. (SHLD) said today that it will bring paint back to stores due to the strong housing market and the rising number of home-improvement projects. The rollout will start in 23 stores before going nationwide...

Question for JCD and listeners : Does anyone have a alternative suggestion for a small, economical city car - like SMART CAR? (or a street legal Golf Cart...)

Hearing more about these "smart pills" like the Bradley Cooper Limitless drug ... Nootropics (Prescription  - PROVIGIL/Modafinil in U.S.) Brain enhancers. Mental magic - what gives?
-- Modafinil is a wakefulness-promoting agent (or eugeroic) used for treatment of disorders such as narcolepsy, shift work sleep disorder, and excessive daytime sleepiness associated with obstructive sleep apnea.
- PROVIGIL (TEVA distributes brand)  is a prescription medicine used to improve wakefulness in adults who are very sleepy due to one of the following diagnosed sleep disorders: narcolepsy, obstructive sleep apnea (OSA), or shift work disorder (SWD).

OH! After the close today - announcement that Ackman's Pershing Square took at 9.5% position in Chipotle (CMG) - Shares up 7.5% after hours


Love the Show?
Then how about a Donation?





dh_CTPCurrent CTP - Twitter (TWTR)

Current DHUnplugged CTP Cup for DJIA

Announcing the Winner for the CTP Cup for August 2016

DIACTPCup

*** NEW INTERACTIVE CHARTS ***

Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo)

CLICK HERE FOR MORE CHARTS ON TRADING VIEW


UPDATE - NEW ETF - Global X Millennials Thematic ETF Challenge!

The top holdings of Global X Millennials Thematic ETF (MILN) include stocks many investors would expect, such as Facebook, LinkedIn and Amazon, which take advantage of the tech tendencies of millennials. But some names might be more surprising like real estate investment trusts AvalonBay Communities and Equity Residential, and Home Depot, which could benefit from millennials moving out of the home of their parents.

We are creating the DH Old Codger Index Portfolio to compete against this new ETF to see how "old school" stocks do in comparison. Companies in our index will include: (updated names as of 8/29/16)

oldcodgers

We have the performance summary running (daily and since inception of 5/6/16) - DHOCI vs. Millennials ETF Battle


Twitter (TWTR) - stock moving on the view that it is a buyout candidate. Who is likely buyer?

New Sport? Americans are flocking to sports like paddle boarding and mixed martial arts, while participation is falling in traditional endeavors such as golf, bowling and running, according to a report by the Sports & Fitness Industry Association. But upstart sports are starting from a small base of participants. Among the fastest-growing categories, paddle boarding had the most participants last year at 3 million. That was followed by adventure racing -- think Tough Mudder and Warrior Dash events -- which attracted 2.8 million. Running, bowling and golf, meanwhile, totaled 119 million.

Anthony Weiner - Is there any coincidence that new pictures emerge with him sexting with the Movie out?

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. banned all of its partners from making campaign contributions to state and local candidates running for office, as well as state or local officials running for federal office.

It's finally over: ITT Educational Services Inc. (ESI) has abruptly shut down its for-profit technical schools, closing more than 130 campuses and leaving as many as 40,000 students stranded in one of the largest college closures in American history. The company blamed the Department of Education for its downfall in a statement released on Tuesday. Last month, the feds demanded the company produce an additional $153 million in collateral—nearly double its $78 million in cash on hand—to cover possible losses that the government might incur if the company were to suddenly fail.

What is this about?  General Electric (GE) is paying a lot to acquire a pair of European leaders in "additive manufacturing machines" (3D printers). In total, it's offering $1.4 billion for Germany's SLM Solutions and Sweden's Arcam, a punchy 10 times their combined revenues. The premium on the previous day's close is respectively 53 percent and 37 percent.

Do we need this? A New Zealand pizza chain aims to become the world's first company to offer a commercial drone delivery service, a milestone in the once-unthinkable quest to save time and money with an air-borne supply chain dispensing with people.

Boston’s largest police union is headed to court to try to halt a program requiring officers to wear body cameras.

What is JCD writing for PCMag this week?

See this week’s stock picks HERE

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Play

DHUnplugged #327: Contra-Dick-Shuns

It was quite the week. First, there was the Fed’s Vice Chair talking up a rate hike – just after Janet Yellen provided a rather dovish speech.

Then contrary to what Bill Ackman told the world about Carl Ichan looking to sell his large stake in Herbalife (HLF) – only to announce after the close that he bought another 2.5 million shares.clashoftitans

To top it off, Iran said they will pump as much oil as possible, even after the Saudi’s talked up a production freeze. But wait… now we find out that Saudi Arabia pumped the most oil they ever have over the last few weeks. (oil fell on all of this production news.

In this episode we get down to the real stories on all of this and more…


Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

Markets in wait-and-see mode. Coming up this week - THE EMPLOYMENT REPORT

The Jackson Hole gathering - once again, Yellen has slightly hawkish headline and underneath ultra-dovish
- Vice Chair Fisher upset markets with his speech saying that rate hike this year possible. (that move markets lower for most of the day Friday - finished with slight loss)
- Yellen noted that there could be another $2 trillion available for bond purchases if any economic shock..

On the hints of a rise in rates and with the employment report on the horizon - the USD is rising against major currency basket - just crossed above the 50 day moving average -

USD Chart

Herbalife (HLF): This is fun... Ackman comes out Friday morning with news that Jeffries approached him about selling a large block - they were shopping it. Ackman said it was Ichans shares and that he was selling because Ichan knows the company is "toast".
- Shares down all day on the news..
- After the close, Ichan announces that he bought 2.5 million shares of HLF to increase his position on Friday. Said that Ackman has no idea what he is talking about - shares pop 4% after hours.
- Ichan game to break Ackman?
- New complaint: After U.S. multi-level marketing company Herbalife settled a probe of its sales practices with the U.S. Federal Trade Commission last month, top executives assured investors that the company would be able to thrive under the new rules.

JCD - Massive Tweeting lately?

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Bitcoin Poll Results - Click below

Bitcoin Poll Results

Mylan Labs (MYLN) in the hot seat after they increased the price of the life saving EpiPen. That caught the interest of Hillary Clinton who put out a public hand-slap and promise to go after the greedy biotech/healthcare industry.
- A day later Mylan came out with a new plan to provide end users a coupon for up to $300 on the generic to make it more affordable.
- Supposedly, Mylan only takes in $275 on each two pack - even though the retail price is over $650...
- Price was $100 for two-pack in 2009 (Explain why price is going up?)

Regarding Vaping: “Our goal for Japan is to switch every consumer we have to this,” said Paul Riley, who joined Philip Morris in Sydney in 1988 and became its Japan unit’s president last September. “For me, it’s like a no-brainer. The biggest thing is we know that smoking kills. If we’ve got an alternative to that, that’s a pretty good reason to switch.”

Google is moving onto Uber Technologies Inc.’s turf with its own ride-sharing service in San Francisco that would help commuters carpool at far cheaper rates, according to a person familiar with the matter, jumping into a booming but fiercely competitive market.
- News that Uber is not profitable in the U.S. - how is that possible?

 

 


Love the Show?
Then how about a Donation?





dh_CTPCurrent CTP - Twitter (TWTR)

DHUnplugged CTP Cup for DJIA

(September CTP Cup open for entries on Friday -DJIA)

*** NEW INTERACTIVE CHARTS ***

Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo)

CLICK HERE FOR MORE CHARTS ON TRADING VIEW


UPDATE - NEW ETF - Global X Millennials Thematic ETF Challenge!

The top holdings of Global X Millennials Thematic ETF (MILN) include stocks many investors would expect, such as Facebook, LinkedIn and Amazon, which take advantage of the tech tendencies of millennials. But some names might be more surprising like real estate investment trusts AvalonBay Communities and Equity Residential, and Home Depot, which could benefit from millennials moving out of the home of their parents.

We are creating the DH Old Codger Index Portfolio to compete against this new ETF to see how "old school" stocks do in comparison. Companies in our index will include: (updated names as of 8/29/16)

oldcodgers

We have the performance summary running (daily and since inception of 5/6/16) - DHOCI vs. Millennials ETF Battle


The European Union’s competition authorities announced a major tax ruling against Apple’s tax dealings with the Irish government on Tuesday, a decision that will likely increase trans-Atlantic tension over how some of the world’s largest companies pay taxes on their global operations. (Apple to pay $14 billion???)

Apple news - leaked info/photos of the iPhone 7
- Waterproof?
- Wireless Charging?
_Remove Headphone jack
- More colors
- Dual camera (what about old cases?)-- September 7th is the big reveal

Not so sweet: Mondelez, Hershey — Merger talks between the two food manufacturers fell apart after the Oreo cookie maker said late Monday it ended discussions of a potential combination with the chocolate company. Mondelez shares were more than 3.5 percent higher in premarket trade, while Hershey shares were nearly 11 percent lower.

Massachusetts - Looking to dump Daylight Savings time because gets dark too early.

Libertarian Gary Johnson’s plan for capturing the White House hinges on voters following through on polls suggesting they dislike the Republican and Democratic presidential nominees more than in any election year in history. “You know how crazy this election cycle is?” Johnson told Chris Wallace on “Fox News Sunday.” “I might be the next president.”

Headline: "Weight Watchers (WTW) shares moving higher in recent trade; move attributed to NY Post report citing Oprah's weight loss success"

Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) — The teen apparel retailer posted a 14th-straight quarterly decline in sales. Same-store sales at Abercrombie stories open at least a year fell 7 percent in the quarter, versus the expected 6.5 percent decline, according to Consensus Metrix. Shares were more than 13 percent lower in premarket trade.

Chipotle (CMG) - Free food on Sundays?  Desperate move...

What is JCD writing for PCMag this week?

See this week’s stock picks HERE

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Play

DHUnplugged #326: Mayo’s Slippery Slope

OPEC is at it again – trying to rescue the price of oil by scare tactics and promises of “potential” production freeze. slippery slopeUnfortunately, while the Saudi oil minister says one thing, IRAQ and IRAN say another.

New home sales in the U.S .are on on fire as interest rates are near record lows. Meanwhile the housing market in London appears to be imploding.

Friday brings another round of Fed talk with Janey Yellen headlining at the Jackson Hole economic confab. Is there any reason to believe that she will be the slight bit hawkish?


Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

Markets back to sideways chop with buyers still absorbing selling. Can be seen by a few technical readings that there is distribution, but buyers are there to keep prices up. Looks like there is some magnet to the 2,200 level on the S&P that someone wants to tag. (Now just a few points away) - What will

Impressive : July New Home Sales 654K vs 580K Briefing.com consensus; M/M change +12.4%

Coming Friday - Janet Yellen will be speaking at the annual Jackson Hole confab. Most are expecting more dovish talk, even with several key Fed members stating that a rate hike this year is very possible. (is Gold and Silver in play ?)

Oil - Over the weekend, IRAQ said that they are looking to ramp up production. Oil had one of the best weeks in a long time after Saudi oil minister said that they a production freeze may be something that could be in the cards. (BS Meter alert)
- On the news, oil slid 3%
- - API data showed a build of 4.46 mln mln barrels of oil for the week ended Aug 19, compared to last week's draw of 1.0 mln barrels.
- If OPEC continues to cry wolf - they will be on a oil soaked slippery slope that could crash prices

Bitcoin - had a very interesting conversation regarding Bitcoin on TDI Podcast - want to know from audience/listeners:
Is Bitcoin a viable currency - now and in the future (poll on DH Sidebar)

Best Buy (BBY) blows away the earnings and revenue estimates - stock up 15%
- Best Buy beats by $0.14, beats on revs; guides Q3 EPS in-line, revs above consensus; raises FY17 profit guidance  (32.80)
--- Is this possibly due to lack of smartphone buying - people have money to spend on something other than iPhone?

Did we discuss? The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is looking into whether a San Francisco-based food technology startup broke the law by not disclosing that it was buying its own vegan mayonnaise from stores, which made the product appear to be more successful than it was, according to people familiar with the matter. The agency is trying to determine whether Josh Tetrick’s Hampton Creek Inc. improperly recognized revenue from purchases made with company money. (Is this any different from share buyback to goose profits?)

President Barack Obama visits Baton Rouge, Louisiana, to tour flood-damaged areas and meet with emergency officials.

Look at who is taking our ideas - St Louis Fed - FredCast [LINK]

FREDcast

"economic forecasting game from the St. Louis Fed. FREDcast players give their best predictions for four important economic indicators: GDP, employment, unemployment, and the consumer price index. Forecasts are then compared with the actual release numbers and scored for accuracy. Players can judge their performance by looking at their rankings within leagues or among all FREDcast users. "

DOJ sent a memo - they want to shut down private prisons (GEO), (CXW) - stocks tumble then recover a bit.


Love the Show?
Then how about a Donation?





dh_CTPAnnouncing the Winner of  - Shake Shack CTP

ShakeShackCTP

*** NEW INTERACTIVE CHARTS ***

DHUnplugged CTP Cup for DJIA (DIA)

ANNOUNCING - Twitter (TWTR) CTP

Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo)

CLICK HERE FOR MORE CHARTS ON TRADING VIEW


UPDATE - NEW ETF - Global X Millennials Thematic ETF Challenge!

The top holdings of Global X Millennials Thematic ETF (MILN) include stocks many investors would expect, such as Facebook, LinkedIn and Amazon, which take advantage of the tech tendencies of millennials. But some names might be more surprising like real estate investment trusts AvalonBay Communities and Equity Residential, and Home Depot, which could benefit from millennials moving out of the home of their parents.

We are creating the DH Old Codger Index Portfolio to compete against this new ETF to see how "old school" stocks do in comparison. Companies in our index will include:

  • Devita (DVA) - Dialysis/HealthCare, Tootsie Roll (TR) - Candies, Exxon Mobile (XOM) - Oil/Energy, Sears (SHLD) - Misc. Retail
  • More......

We have the performance summary running (daily and since inception of 5/6/16) - DHOCI vs. Millennials ETF Battle


What will happen? On this Thursday, Volkswagen AG must provide an update on its regulatory approval to fix 8.5 million diesel engines in part of a settlement before U.S. District Judge Charles Breyer. This deadline comes in the wake of the automaker’s emissions scandal.

Olympics roundup - Was it all that was expected? Ryan Lochte shenanigans....

LazyBoy (LZB) did not get a benefit from the Olympics - company missed earnings guidance and stock trading down 15%.

Congrat Mr. Gates - Net worth hits $90 billion

Tesla Motors announces larger battery packs (100kWh up from 90kWh) for extending EV driving ranges.

High risk car loans: Santander Consumer USA (SC) delays the filing of its 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2016 beyond the August 15, 2016 extended filing date; does not foresee a material interruption related to the delayed filing 

What is JCD writing for PCMag this week?

See this week’s stock picks HERE

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Play

DHUnplugged #325 – Don’t Raise the Bridge, Lower The River

Now that central banks are starting to get the point that more of the same is not working, they are looking to change their targets.raisebridge

Markets slip from all-time highs as China and U.S. economic data softens.

Inflation tame, GDP slow, just another day at the eco-office.

Many of the well-known hedge funds are dumping Apple (AAPL) while Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway is buying.


Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

Market volumes are anemic, but buyers still pushing in as they are in TINA mode. THERE IS NO ALTERNATIVE

Twitter (TWTR) - Was this genius? Twitter in talks to have Twitter on Apple TV... With NFL stream does that mean that Apple TV will have NFL streaming?
- Is this end run around NFL? Stock now over $20 /share...
-- Twitter Inc. is offering about a quarter of the space at its San Francisco headquarters complex for sublease, adding to a growing amount of excess offices available in the city as the technology industry cools.

About 78,800 square feet (7,320 square meters) is listed for sublease on the seventh floor of 1355 Market St., a renovated 1930s furniture mart, and 104,850 square feet is available along three floors in an adjacent building at One Tenth St., according to marketing materials from Cresa, a commercial real estate firm.

GoPro (GPRO) share on the move since their latest earnings announcement. Up ~ 50% since the lows in July. Sustainable? Chart looks as if there are some open air levels that could continue to squeeze shorts.

Twilio (TWLO) - Recent IPO - UP UP UP -  See chart

Twilio Chart

Don't raise the bridge - Lower the River....Fed's Williams says considering raising or replacing 2% inflation target; reiterates need for fiscal policies; says central banks should target nominal GDP not inflation (More dovish than he has been as he discusses removing the 2% inflation target, suggesting the Fed is content with overshooting this target to drive growth)

U.S. consumer prices were unchanged in July on falling gasoline costs, but solid gains in industrial output and home building suggested a pickup in economic activity that could allow the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this year.

TrimTabs Investment Research reported today that announced stock buybacks in earnings season through Monday, August 15 have fallen to the lowest level since the summer of 2012, averaging just 3.3 for $1.8 billion daily.
- “Buyback activity has been disappointing in earnings season,” said David Santschi, chief executive officer of TrimTabs.  “The reluctance to pull the trigger on share repurchases suggests corporate leaders are becoming less enthusiastic about what they see ahead.”

** September - murmurs that there may be some backtracking to markets that is followed with an uptick. Several seasonality indicators showing it could be a tough month..

** At a meeting - heard about the "Year 7 Cycle" - years ending with 7 seem to be tough for markets (2007, 1987, 1977. 1937) - However that is not true - 1987 actually was an up year and so was 2007 - maybe some weaker returns, but this is reason not to get too caught up in just what someone says.

Japan’s Economic Growth Slows as Business Spending Slumps - GDP misses estimates and now there is even more evidence that the Abeonomics plan is not what it was cracked up to be.
- YEN - Falls below $100 in overnight trade Tuesday (99.50) then saw some selling - possible BOJ intervention. Now Yen is up 18% YTD

In a sign that investors are content with passive investing: Billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones on Tuesday laid off roughly five dozen employees, or about 15 percent of his workforce, a person familiar with the moves said on Tuesday, in the wake of poor returns and investor redemptions.
-- Investors pulled $32.9 billion last month from actively managed U.S. mutual funds that buy domestic stocks in July, the biggest monthly outflow in data going back to 1993, as money continues to move into low-cost passively managed funds, according to Morningstar Inc. About an equal amount, $33.8 billion, went into passive funds that invest in U.S. equities, Chicago-based researcher Alina Lamy of Morningstar said Friday in an interview.

In the latest blow to Obamacare, Aetna is vastly reducing its presence on the individual exchanges in 2017. The insurer will stop offering policies on the exchanges in 11 of the 15 states where it currently operates, according to a press release it issued Monday evening. Aetna will only sell Obamacare products in Delaware, Iowa, Nebraska and Virginia.

Volkswagen owners in the United States will receive about $20,000 per car as compensation for the company’s diesel deception. Volkswagen owners in Europe at most get a software update and a short length of plastic tubing.

Home Depot Inc reported a 9.3 percent rise in quarterly profit and boosted its full-year earnings forecast as it kept a tight lid on costs, while benefiting from a strong U.S. housing market.

North Korea has an odd Olympic spirit: on Friday the country foiled Samsung’s plan to provide its Summer Olympics athletes with free Galaxy S7 handsets. North Korean athletes were barred from participating. North Korea’s Olympic Committee forbade them from carrying Galaxy S7 units “as they entered Maracana Stadium during the opening ceremony,” according to Radio Free Asia, and a spokesperson for Samsung later told the publication that a North Korean team manager confiscated the devices. Reportedly, government officials were concerned that the phones would provide a means to “access the Samsung exhibition, where the company displayed South Korean electronics.”


Love the Show?
Then how about a Donation?





dh_CTPCurrent CTP - Shake Shack

*** NEW INTERACTIVE CHARTS ***

DHUnpluged CTP Cup for DJIA (DIA)

Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo)

CLICK HERE FOR MORE CHARTS ON TRADING VIEW


UPDATE - NEW ETF - Global X Millennials Thematic ETF Challenge!

The top holdings of Global X Millennials Thematic ETF (MILN) include stocks many investors would expect, such as Facebook, LinkedIn and Amazon, which take advantage of the tech tendencies of millennials. But some names might be more surprising like real estate investment trusts AvalonBay Communities and Equity Residential, and Home Depot, which could benefit from millennials moving out of the home of their parents.

We are creating the DH Old Codger Index Portfolio to compete against this new ETF to see how "old school" stocks do in comparison. Companies in our index will include:

  • Devita (DVA) - Dialysis/HealthCare, Tootsie Roll (TR) - Candies, Exxon Mobile (XOM) - Oil/Energy, Sears (SHLD) - Misc. Retail
  • More......

We have the performance summary running (daily and since inception of 5/6/16) - DHOCI vs. Millennials ETF Battle


Discussed last show - Zika: Four Zika-related biotech companies — BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc. (BCRX), Intrexon Corp. (XON), Inovio Pharmaceuticals Inc. (INO) and Cerus Corp. CERS), — could potentially benefit from the virus’ spread to the continental U.S., , though each company has a different approach to fighting the virus.
- Puerto Rico is now calling for a state of emergency related to Zika outbreak
- What is the outlook on the potential for consumers if Zika problem continues?
- Is this just a summer thing?

Update - Crude oil: Starting to see headline and murmurs about a potential for OPEC to freeze output - AGAIN! This could mean that there is a bigger glut that thought and they are worried - Oil surges! Now above $46 (After hours API data came in and oil dropped hard)

On Monday, the Securities and Exchange Commission halted its shares, which trade on over-the-counter markets in the U.S., over “potentially manipulative transactions” and concerns about the “identity of the persons in control.” There were red flags over the years. But Neuromama, which has ambitions to license “heavy ion fusion technology patents” among its many projects, began to draw more scrutiny this year after its paper value more than quadrupled to $35 billion on scant volume. Before its suspension, the market cap of Neuromama, which was based in southwest Siberia before moving to a beach community near Tijuana, Mexico, was greater than even Tesla Motors Inc.

Self-service checkout technology may offer convenience and speed, but it also helps turn law-abiding shoppers into petty thieves by giving them “ready-made excuses” to take merchandise without paying, two criminologists say. In a study of retailers in the United States, Britain and other European countries, Professor Adrian Beck and Matt Hopkins of the University of Leicester in England said the use of self-service lanes and smartphone apps to make purchases generated a loss rate of nearly 4 percent, more than double the average.

House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi told fellow Democrats to change their phone numbers and not let family members read their text messages after a cybersecurity breach led to the release of personal information of members of Congress and their staff. “I have received scores of mostly obscene and sick calls, voicemails and text messages,” Pelosi said Saturday in a letter to party members. “Please be careful not to allow your children or family members to answer your phone.”

What is JCD writing for PCMag this week?

See this week’s stock picks HERE

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Play

DHUnplugged #324: The 3-Day Workweek

Employment numbers keep on showing signs of a strong economy. On the other hand, productivity showed a massive drop.3ball

Market continue to creep higher – even in light of valuations and headwinds as the search for yield continues.

Olympic update! What is the deal with advertisers dropping Facebook? And much more …


Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

New highs! markets continue to creep higher after a breakout post employment report.

The employment report came in strong with 255k added to payrolls. The official unemployment number now stands at 4.9%. The average workweek was steady at 34.5 hours with a slight uptick to average hourly earnings.

 Employment Chart

With the employment report - markets surged - the S&P 500 hit an all-time high after floating sideways for the past few weeks.
- Productivity is down hard last month and inventories on the rise. What does that portend?

Walmart is buying Jet.com for $3 billion. Now that is going to be interesting competition for Amazon.

Trump's economic plan recently announced:

  • No American company will pay more than 15% in its income; reducing taxes from 35% to 15%.
  • Will cut regulations 'massively'.
  • Lower business tax will kill corporate inversions.
  • Plans to eliminate the estate tax.
  • Proposed reducing income tax to 3 levels not 7 (12%, 25%, and 33%); Prior high for this was 25%.
  • Will target tax-specific loop holes in tax laws.
  • Says no family will have to pay the death tax.
  • Says will kill all 'illegal and over reaching' executive orders.
  • Wants to renegotiate the NAFTA deal; says if U.S. does not get what it wants then he will walk away from the deal.
  • Says will eliminate the Trans Pacific Trade Pact.
  • Reiterates he would repeal Obamacare.

Olympics: A Sky News reporter tweeted that an Olympic kayaker on a practice run capsized after hitting a sofa. The Olympic organizers are currently investigating. (Water where they race is very polluted)

What is with the cupping ? Plenty of Olympic athletes have the red/purple circles from cupping procedures.

Dutch gymnast Yuri van Gelder has been expelled from the Olympics for "gravely" violating team rules by going out for a night of drinking in Rio after qualifying for the finals of the rings event, the Dutch team said.

Medal count? [LINK]

3-day workweek - Carlos Slim (Mexico's richest person) - "It’s important that people don’t retire at 50, 60, or 65 years old. I think people should retire later, because they’ll have more knowledge and experience. And I think they should work three days a week, so that it creates space for others." " This way, there will be less need for transportation. Nations wouldn’t have to face early retirements that are financially destabilizing. The quality of life and having four days a week free would encourage a lot of economic activities—more tourism, entertainment, sports, culture, and education. People can take advantage of those extra days to keep learning."

It looks like Volkswagen's diesel scandal could keep rolling as reports claim that the automaker has three hidden software programs in its 3.0-liter engines.
- That secret software in Volkswagen's 3.0-liter diesels can turn off the vehicles' emissions controls, Reuters reports, citing the German newspaper Bild am Sonntag. The emissions control system allegedly shuts off after 22 minutes, when most emissions tests take about 20.

Nikkei Asian Review reported Monday that AMZN Japan was raided by antitrust officials in Japan. Amazon Japan pricing deals with competitors are under antitrust investigation

Walt Disney Co's quarterly profit and revenue on Tuesday beat analysts' estimates fueled by movie studio hits, and the media company said it was taking a stake in a streaming video technology company to sell more content directly to consumers.


Love the Show?
Then how about a Donation?





dh_CTP

*** NEW INTERACTIVE CHARTS ***

Current CTP - Shake Shack

DHUnpluged CTP Cup for DJIA (DIA)

Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo)

CLICK HERE FOR MORE CHARTS ON TRADING VIEW


UPDATE - NEW ETF - Global X Millennials Thematic ETF Challenge!

The top holdings of Global X Millennials Thematic ETF (MILN) include stocks many investors would expect, such as Facebook, LinkedIn and Amazon, which take advantage of the tech tendencies of millennials. But some names might be more surprising like real estate investment trusts AvalonBay Communities and Equity Residential, and Home Depot, which could benefit from millennials moving out of the home of their parents.

We are creating the DH Old Codger Index Portfolio to compete against this new ETF to see how "old school" stocks do in comparison. Companies in our index will include:

  • Devita (DVA) - Dialysis/HealthCare, Tootsie Roll (TR) - Candies, Exxon Mobile (XOM) - Oil/Energy, Sears (SHLD) - Misc. Retail
  • More......

We have the performance summary running (daily and since inception of 5/6/16) - DHOCI vs. Millennials ETF Battle


Massive outage for Delta Air - planed grounded worldwide on Monday - what caused this?
- Delta suffered a meltdown of its computer system, causing hundreds of canceled flights and shining another light on the airline industry’s aging technology.

Zika: Four Zika-related biotech companies — BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc. (BCRX), Intrexon Corp. (XON), Inovio Pharmaceuticals Inc. (INO) and Cerus Corp. CERS), — could potentially benefit from the virus’ spread to the continental U.S., , though each company has a different approach to fighting the virus.

Crude oil: Starting to see headline and murmurs about a potential for OPEC to freeze output - AGAIN! This could mean that there is a bigger glut that thought and they are worried (watch for $35?)

Facebook: Procter & Gamble, the biggest advertising spender in the world, will move away from advertising on Facebook that targets specific consumers after deciding the practice has limited effectiveness. AND
- Facebook is going to start forcing ads to appear for all users of its desktop website, even if they use ad-blocking software. The social network said on Tuesday that it will change the way advertising is loaded into its desktop website to make its ad units considerably more difficult for ad blockers to detect.- - - “This isn’t motivated by inventory; it’s not an opportunity for Facebook from that perspective,” Mr. Bosworth said. “We’re doing it more for the principle of the thing. We want to help lead the discussion on this.”

Corporate bond defaults keep coming. The global default rate among bonds rated below investment grade rose to 4.7% in July from 4.6% in June, Moody’s Investors Service reported Tuesday. The long-term average default rate is 4.2%. The year-to-date tally rose to 102 with 11 defaults in July — they highest monthly count since 2009. (However, HYG and junk bond funds are continuing to rally as the hunt for yield continues)

Judge leaves 14-year sentence intact for ex-Illinois Governor Blagojevich in government corruption case

The U.S. State Department has approved the potential sale of more than 130 Abrams battle tanks, 20 armored recovery vehicles and other equipment, worth about $1.15 billion, to Saudi Arabia, the Pentagon said on Tuesday.

What is JCD writing for PCMag this week?

See this week’s stock picks HERE

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Play

DHUnplugged # 323: Welcome To Zikami

Stocks are reaching levels that may not be sustainable. With European stress tests under scrutiny, banks within the region are getting hit hard while Greek banks have been upgraded from selective default. 2016-08-02_13-50-49

The CDC is now warning people to stay away from Miami as the Zika virus has been showing up more frequently – specifically in the town of Wynmoor in Miami.

Where else can you hear a discussion about Whale poop?


Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

Markets - 7 days down for DJIA - but nothing major...

Atlanta Fed President Lockhart says keeping a close eye on asset prices as they are particularly buoyant at the moment; need to watch valuations

How much?? The chart below from the Congressional Research Service describes the costs to taxpayers of the four former presidents and one widow, Nancy Reagan, who were given pensions and benefits in fiscal year 2015. In total, taxpayers spent more than $3.2 million on the four former presidents — a tiny sum relative to the $3.7 trillion federal budget, but a healthy chuck of change to spend on people who can earn millions through speaking fees, book deals and other sources of incomes. The president’s fiscal 2017 budget requested an increase to $3.865 million to cover the costs of adding Obama as a former president.

Former Presidential Costs Table

LARRY! In acquisition news, Oracle has agreed to buy NetSuite for $109 a share, or about $9.3 billion. Larry Ellison already owned about 40% of NetSuite, so the deal will net him about $3.5 billion.
European Banking Authority (EBA) releases 2016 EU-wide stress test results: No surprise - With one exception, all banks show CET1 capital levels well above the benchmark of 5.5% used in 2014 in the hypothetical adverse scenario. This reflects the robustness of overall capital levels at the banks tested in the EBA led stress tests. (Italy's Monte Dei Paschi was the only "failure")
UBER OUT IN CHINA - Lost billions... (Approx $35billion) Didi Chuxing announced a strategic agreement with Uber under which Didi Chuxing will acquire all assets of Uber China--including its brand, business operations and data--for operation within mainland China. This landmark transaction signals a new stage in the development of China's rideshare industry.

  • In exchange for the Uber China assets, Uber will receive 5.89% of the combined company with preferred equity interest which is equal to a 17.7% economic interest in Didi Chuxing. In addition, Baidu (BIDU) and other Chinese shareholders will receive a 2.3% economic interest in Didi Chuxing. Under the agreement, Didi Chuxing will also obtain a minority equity interest in Uber. Cheng Wei, founder and chairman of Didi Chuxing, will join the board of Uber. Travis Kalanick, founder of Uber, will join the board of Didi Chuxing.
  • With this transaction, Didi Chuxing becomes the only company with common investment from Tencent (TCEHY), Alibaba (BABA) and Baidu.

Just to show how bad a long-term investment the some of the leveraged ETFs are - The UVXY (2X Short-term Vix) now trades at about $25.25. If you would have owned it since inception ..... See Chart

UVXY Long-Term Chart

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo has asked the state’s Department of Corrections and Community Supervision (DOCCS) to bar registered sex offenders from playing the game Pokémon Go, citing concerns that pedophiles could use the app to find or lure victims.
- Supposedly 100 million downloads and company pulling in $10million/day -

Welcome to Zikami - The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued an unprecedented travel warning Monday, advising pregnant women and their partners not to travel to a small community just north of downtown Miami, where Zika is actively circulating. This is the first time the CDC has warned people not to travel to an American neighborhood for fear of catching an infectious disease, according to agency spokesman Tom Skinner. (Wynmoor specifically)

 - ZIKA: Florida public health investigators have identified 10 additional Zika cases in the Miami area, bringing the total to 14 in the first known outbreak of the virus to be caused by mosquitoes in the continental U.S., Florida Gov. Rick Scott said Monday.


Love the Show?
Then how about a Donation?





dh_CTPAnnouncing the Winner of this CTP - Pfizer (PFE)

pfeCTP

*** NEW INTERACTIVE CHARTS ***

Current CTP - Shake Shack

 DHUnpluged CTP Cup for DJIA (DIA)

Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo)



CLICK HERE FOR MORE CHARTS ON TRADING VIEW


UPDATE - NEW ETF - Global X Millennials Thematic ETF Challenge!

The top holdings of Global X Millennials Thematic ETF (MILN) include stocks many investors would expect, such as Facebook, LinkedIn and Amazon, which take advantage of the tech tendencies of millennials. But some names might be more surprising like real estate investment trusts AvalonBay Communities and Equity Residential, and Home Depot, which could benefit from millennials moving out of the home of their parents.

We are creating the DH Old Codger Index Portfolio to compete against this new ETF to see how "old school" stocks do in comparison. Companies in our index will include:

  • Devita (DVA) - Dialysis/HealthCare, Tootsie Roll (TR) - Candies, Exxon Mobile (XOM) - Oil/Energy, Sears (SHLD) - Misc. Retail
  • More......

We have the performance summary running (daily and since inception of 5/6/16) - DHOCI vs. Millennials ETF Battle


DOWNGRADE: Global equities are at the upper end of their "fat and flat range," according to Goldman Sachs, who downgraded stocks to "underweight" on Monday as part of its 3-month asset allocation. The bank remains "neutral" on equities over a 12-month period and continues its "overweight" position in cash. The downgrade comes after a rally in risk assets over the past few weeks driven by the U.K.'s vote to leave the European Union on June 23 and the search for yield amid expectations of easing. But Goldman suggests equities are now expensive and with weaker-than-expected earnings growth it views this as the right time to downgrade.

Buying Spree? Verizon Communications Inc. VZ, -1.00% on Monday said it's entered an agreement to acquire Fleetmatics Group PLC  in a deal valued at $2.4 billion. Fleetmatics is a mobile workforce solutions company offering businesses the software and means to track and analyze data from their vehicles and, or drivers.

Drink Up! Scientists on opposite sides of the globe appear to be getting closer to harnessing one of red wine’s most elusive health-giving ingredients and putting it into a pill. The ingredient, resveratrol, has been touted for years for its ostensible powers to prolong life and protect against a range of ailments including heart disease, diabetes and Alzheimer’s disease. Studies pointing to those benefits have been performed in laboratories on yeast, worms, fruit flies and mice, among other organisms.

Market manipulation: Credit Suisse (CS) and Deutch Bank (DB) to be removed from Euro Stoxx 50 - nicely done index dudes!

Selective Default upgrade : S&P revises ratings/outlook on Greek banks to CCC+ from SD -- Alpha Bank (ALBKY), Piraeus Bank (BPIRY), Natl Bank of Greece (NBG / NBGGY)

More to come? Three senior Irish bankers were jailed on Friday for up to three-and-a-half years for conspiring to defraud investors in the most prominent prosecution arising from the 2008 banking crisis that crippled the country's economy. The trio will be among the first senior bankers globally to be jailed for their role in the collapse of a bank during the crisis.

Greatest job in the world? Recently,  the Washington City Paper reported on what might sound like a dream job to qualified applicants  — the Smithsonian National Museum of American History sought a "Beer Historian" for a three-year appointment.  The job came with an annual salary of $64,650, and curator Paula Johnson told the paper that "the museum is seeking someone who can 'focus and dedicate efforts towards research, documentation, and collecting American brewing history.'"

Children in the Syrian city of Aleppo are burning tires in an attempt to create a no-fly zone above the besieged city. By creating a "smoke curtain" they hope to impede visibility from warplanes that have been carrying out bombing raids.

McDonald's, which is trying to shake its image for serving processed junk food, said Monday it's eliminating some unpalatable ingredients from its most popular menu items. That includes making Chicken McNuggets and other items without artificial preservatives, and removing high-fructose corn syrup from its burger buns.

Privacy advocacy groups are sounding the alarm on LinkNYC, a network of free Wi-Fi kiosks that have been installed across New York City in the past year by CityBridge, which is a consortium of companies such as Qualcomm, CIVIQ Smartscapes, and Intersection, the latter a company in which Sidewalk Labs invested, who is part of Alphabet. ** Seems concern that user data is collected when using ***

More data: A listing has been published today on TheRealDeal Dark Web marketplace, claiming to be offering data on over 200 million Yahoo users.
- While Yahoo says it is currently investigating the breach, the listing has almost instant credibility since it's been put up for sale by the infamous Peace_of_Mind (Peace), the same hacker behind many other verified and proven breaches. If the name still doesn't ring a bell, you should know that Peace previously sold data dumps from sites such as LinkedIn, MySpace, Tumblr, Fling.com, and VK.com. In total, this hacker sold the personal details of over 800 million users, and probably more.

What is JCD writing for PCMag this week?

See this week’s stock picks HERE

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Play

DHUnplugged #322: Earnings Deluge

Investors are waiting for the Fed to help prop up markets as over 200 companies are scheduled to report earnings this week.dh07262016

While 68% of companies are beating earnings, not so much discussion about the currency tailwind they are seeing. What happened to transparency?

The RNC and DNC have some great scandals on their hands – if nothing else makes for some very entertaining times. Much more and plenty of ideas to chew on in this episode.


Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

Trouble at the DNC - nice timing on the release of the emails by WikiLeaks. DNC Chair steps down - (but now on Clinton Campaign?)

- Can we discuss why they send emails for sensitive info that can get them in a bind?
- What is wrong with the people that write these types of things down?
- Is this a help to the Republicans?

Blame the Russians:  The FBI is investigating the cybertheft of emails from the Democratic National Committee amid concerns hackers working for Russia are attempting to use the breach to influence the presidential election.

Bernie Sanders, who lost the nomination to Hillary Clinton, told his supporters it was important to vote for her to stop Donald J. Trump. Yet many booed that sentiment, and other protesters picked up on the Republicans’ chant of “Lock Her Up.”

Looks like the RNC convention and the DNC email fiasco is lifting Trump in the polls

Latest CNN Presidential Poll

The DNC started off with a bang! Michelle Obama provided a powerful speech...

Final Roll Call - Clinton is the official Dem candidate!

DNC Roll Call Count

Yahoo! (YHOO) core assets bought by Verizon (V) for just under $5 billion. Meyers stays on....But what is the benefit for Verizon? What is Meyers going to do with a simple holding company?

Earnings this week - over 200 companies +/- from S&P 500 are reporting this week. Including Apple, Facebook and other major names - what will this do for markets?

Earnings season update - about 25% of the S&P companies have reported. Estimates are for a drop of 3.7% on a growth basis for earnings this quarter - better than the 5.5% estimated just a few weeks ago. 65% of companies have beat ES estimates and about 58% beat sales estimates. Current P/E ratio on forward basis is still high at 17.5% given conservative estimates.

Apple (AAPL) beats on EPS, in-line on revenue. All major metrics soft as compared to last year same quarter. (Stock up 6%)

(Oh - 3rd straight quarter of sales/revenue drop)

  • Apple Q3 EPS $1.42 vs $1.38 Capital IQ Consensus;
  • Rev $42.4 bln vs $42.10 bln Capital IQ Consensus;
  • Sees Q4 rev $45.5-47.5 bln vs. $45.8 bln consensus
  • Margins were better than expected which is good considering concerns about cheaper product mix
  • Q3 iPhones 40.4 mln vs 40.2 mln ests vs 47.5 mln last year.
  • Q3 iPads 9.95 mln vs 8.7 mln ests vs 10.9 mln last year.
  • Q3 Macs 4.2 mln vs 4.6 mln ests vs 4.4 mln last year.

Twitter beats by $0.04, reports revs in-line; guides Q3 revs below consensus; Raises low end of FY16 EBITDA guidance (Stock down 10%)

Conference call notes:

  • Seeing an improvement in engagement driven by product changes not associated with live content it has launched (has only done 2 events).
  • DAU to MAU ratio remains stable; saw an improvement in tweet impressions.
  • Focused on Live sport, news/politics/ and entertainment.
  • For guidance, evaluating what has happened in July and how quarter ended; factoring in bookings and what it sees happening; launching more streaming products in September (notes only two NFL games in quarter so will not have a big impact in Q3).
  • Video is now the #1 ad format in terms of revenue on TWTR. (????)

So much for breakfast all -day - McDonald's posts a rather weak quarter with tepid outlook - shares down 4%.

Have you noticed? Remember when companies were whining and complaining that currency headwinds and how they would provide "Constant Currency" comparables? Now that there is a currency tailwind over the past quarter - no one seems to be talking about the constant currency anymore.

Oil at multi-month lows -  clipping $43.

Barrons: Investors looking for safety and income have driven utility stocks to pricey levels and low yields. The rally may not be quite over yet, but don’t play chicken—it’s time to take profits.

Turkey Mess: President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s government is detaining journalists, while others are being fired or having their credentials revoked.


Love the Show?
Then how about a Donation?


dh_CTPAnnouncing the Winner of this CTP - Pfizer (PFE) Next week

Current CTP - Shake Shack

Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo)


UPDATE - NEW ETF - Global X Millennials Thematic ETF Challenge!

The top holdings of Global X Millennials Thematic ETF (MILN) include stocks many investors would expect, such as Facebook, LinkedIn and Amazon, which take advantage of the tech tendencies of millennials. But some names might be more surprising like real estate investment trusts AvalonBay Communities and Equity Residential, and Home Depot, which could benefit from millennials moving out of the home of their parents.

We are creating the DH Old Codger Index Portfolio to compete against this new ETF to see how "old school" stocks do in comparison. Companies in our index will include:

  • Devita (DVA) - Dialysis/HealthCare, Tootsie Roll (TR) - Candies, Exxon Mobile (XOM) - Oil/Energy, Sears (SHLD) - Misc. Retail
  • More......

We have the performance summary running (daily and since inception of 5/6/16) - DHOCI vs. Millennials ETF Battle


Nintendo (NTDOY) - company announced that the profitability from Pokemon Go will be negligent - stock tumbles.

Japan is asking for the Fukushima nuclear exclusion zone to be classified as a no-go area for Pokémon after the discovery of at least one of the game’s characters on a power station’s site. Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings (Tepco) has requested that Pokémon Go developer Niantic and the Pokémon Company prevent Pokémon appearing in and around areas affected by the nuclear reactor meltdown in Fukushima to help prevent encouraging players to enter dangerous areas.

The highest-paid CEOs tend to run some of the worst-performing companies, according to new research. The study, carried out by corporate research firm MSCI, found that for every $100 (£76) invested in companies with the highest-paid CEOs would have grown to $265 (£202) over 10 years. But the same amount invested in the companies with the lowest-paid CEOs would have grown to $367 (£279) over a decade.

Everything has to be a movie?  Streaming service Netflix said on Tuesday it had acquired the rights to a book written by two German investigative journalists and was turning it into a feature movie to be produced by John Wells. It is the second proposed movie on the scandal that thrust tax havens and transparency into the spotlight after the details of hundreds of thousands of clients' tax affairs were leaked from Panama-based law firm Mossack Fonseca in April by an anonymous whistleblower.

Purchases of new U.S. single-family homes rose in June to the highest level in more than eight years, indicating a firm and resilient housing market. Sales increased 3.5 percent to a 592,000 annualized pace, the fastest since February 2008, Commerce Department data showed Tuesday in Washington. Figures for May were revised higher. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey called for a 560,000 rate.

Oil - tapping $42 as price slumps to multi-week low. We are now entering the slowest time of year for oil demand.

Facebook (FB) earnings out tomorrow - does the massive ad engine start to slow? (Still do not see any ads on FB)

What is JCD writing about this week for PCMAG?

See this week’s stock picks HERE

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Play

DHUnplugged #321: Energizer Bunny Markets

Markets acting like the Energizer Bunny – Keeps going an going and going… Seems that world events, economic headwinds and even coup attempts are not enough to dissuade investors from throwing their money into stocks. bunnymarkets

Earnings season is well underway with hundreds of companies reporting over the next couple of weeks.

John nails it with his latest pick !


Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

Markets unfazed by escalating violence and coup in Turkey - setting all-time highs almost daily for DJIA and SP500.

How full of shit are they? IMF's Christine Lagarde said that Turkey's central bank did a great job containing markets and currency moves in response to Coup attempt. (No! - Lira off by 4% and markets down 5%)
- Update Lira now lower than when coup was headline....
- Massive move by Erdogan govy to take control, fire judges, politicians and seek to bring back death penalty

Softbank buys ARM Holdings (ARMH) with a 45% premium. Brexit may be some of reason with BP

Netflix Q2 International Net Additions 1.52 mln vs 2.00 mln guidance; For Q3 NFLX expects addition of 2 mln, expectations were in the range of 2.70-2.85 mln; Q1 Adds was 4.51
- US Net additions only 160k
- Churn due to higher rate on older subs that got rate hike
- International lower than expected
- Company beat on EPS by $0.07 (expectations of $0.02) - guided lower than expectations
- Company commentary about why they fell short was focused on the churn (they don't expect that to continue) and also spent a lot of time trying to show that it was not competition
- STOCK DOWN 14%

IBM prelim Q2 $2.95 vs $2.89 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $20.24 bln vs $20.06 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate - had one segment (Watson) that showed growth.

Goldman Sachs (GS) Beat by 0.67 - however this was on lowered estimates. Looking at March estimates - company just met.. (Big revisions to estimates over the past several months to make bar lower)

Yahoo! said that its revenue in the second quarter fell 15 percent, after excluding accounting adjustments, and its operating profit fell 64 percent. Yahoo also acknowledged that Tumblr — its biggest acquisition under its current chief executive, Marissa Mayer — was now worth only one-third of the $1.1 billion that Yahoo paid for it in 2013.

Microsoft prelim Q4 $0.69 vs $0.58 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $22.64 bln vs $22.14 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate  - Stock up 3% after-hours

JCD Called it: British voters, it turns out, can’t actually remove their country from the European Union. Only their elected leaders can do so. Since the June 23 referendum, the debate has turned to whether the new prime minister, Theresa May, can initiate the country’s EU exit without first seeking permission from Parliament. The question has sparked what could turn into a wave of legal challenges, known as judicial reviews. The first one begins Tuesday.

More Brexit fallout: Concerns over the U.K.'s Brexit referendum significantly hampered confidence in Germany's economy in July, with the ZEW survey of economic sentiment sliding to the lowest level since 2012. The indicator slumped to negative 6.8 points, down from 19.2 in June.

Big trouble at RNC - Seems that there was some plagiarism:

Here is Trump, on Monday:

"From a young age, my parents impressed on me the values that you work hard for what you want in life, that your word is your bond and you do what you say and keep your promise, that you treat people with respect. They taught and showed me values and morals in their daily lives. That is a lesson that I continue to pass along to our son," Trump said.

And we need to pass those lessons on to the many generations to follow. Because we want our children in this nation to know that the only limit to your achievements is the strength of your dreams and your willingness to work for them."

And here is Obama, on August 25, 2008:

"And Barack and I were raised with so many of the same values: that you work hard for what you want in life; that your word is your bond and you do what you say you're going to do; that you treat people with dignity and respect, even if you don't know them, and even if you don't agree with them.

And Barack and I set out to build lives guided by these values, and to pass them on to the next generation. Because we want our children -- and all children in this nation -- to know that the only limit to the height of your achievements is the reach of your dreams and your willingness to work for them."

 


dh_CTPAnnouncing the Winner of this CTP - Nike (NKE)

Current CTP - Pfizer (PFE)

2016-07-18_10-14-22

Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo)dh_CTP2DHU's Official Model - Vivi Jugo


UPDATE - NEW ETF - Global X Millennials Thematic ETF Challenge!

The top holdings of Global X Millennials Thematic ETF (MILN) include stocks many investors would expect, such as Facebook, LinkedIn and Amazon, which take advantage of the tech tendencies of millennials. But some names might be more surprising like real estate investment trusts AvalonBay Communities and Equity Residential, and Home Depot, which could benefit from millennials moving out of the home of their parents.

We are creating the DH Old Codger Index Portfolio to compete against this new ETF to see how "old school" stocks do in comparison. Companies in our index will include:

  • Devita (DVA) - Dialysis/HealthCare, Tootsie Roll (TR) - Candies, Exxon Mobile (XOM) - Oil/Energy, Sears (SHLD) - Misc. Retail
  • More......

We have the performance summary running (daily and since inception of 5/6/16) - DHOCI vs. Millennials ETF Battle


Nintendo (NTDOY) - some discussion that ZAGG would be a beneficiary of the Pokemon craze.... Connection? Stock was up 11%, filled gap today then retreated.

ZAGG Chart

More: McDonald’s Holdings Co. (Japan) saw its shares jump as much as 23 percent, the biggest daily gain since its July 2001 listing after it started giving away figurines based on Pokemon characters such as Pikachu with sales of Happy Meals on Friday. Nintendo Co.’s mobile game Pokemon Go, which has sparked a worldwide frenzy, still isn’t available in Japan where the cartoon series was first created.

NTDOY Updtae: (We shorted for client portfolios today - closed soon after as it filled lower gap for 8% profit)

Russian track-and-field athletes had already been banned from this summer’s Olympics for using performance-enhancing drugs. On Monday, the World Anti-Doping Agency released a report on the alleged state-run doping scheme at the 2014 Sochi Olympics. No surprise, perhaps. Now Curling, Beach volleyball and ..... Ping-pong!

Herbalife (HLF) - FTC out with "verdict" on the Pyramid Scheme - NOT a Pyramid scheme BUT fines company $200m and mandates changes to biz practices - does this seem like the company is in the clear?
-If company needs to change the way they operate that has made them so successful for so long, will they maintain profitability?

Anything to this? : Women over 40 are having more babies than the under 20s for the first time in nearly 70 years, official figures for England and Wales show. The Office for National Statistics data showed there were 697,852 live births in 2015. There were 15.2 births per 1,000 women aged over 40, compared with just 14.5 per 1,000 women in their teens. The last time the over 40s had the higher fertility rate was in 1947, in the wake of WWII.

Still at it: Tesla Motors: Elon Musk tweets - "Will be working at Tesla on Autopilot & Model 3 today, then aiming to pull an all-nighter and complete the master product plan

Andrew was on Benzinga Pre-Market Prep Show today and will be guest on Frank Curzio's podcast next week. Also, upcoming guest this week on TDI Podcast is Dr. Daniel Crosby - Author of The Laws of Wealth

What is JCD writing about this week for PCMAG?

See this week’s stock picks HERE

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Play

DHUnplugged #320: Pokeman GO Markets

Brexit turned out to be nothing. In fact markets making new highs as the promise of stimulus and liquidity quiet market fears.ppokeman

Meanwhile, several U.K. based real estate funds are denying withdrawals as investors are pulling out too much money. Bonds rallying hard along with equities as the flight to safety pushes sovereign debt “more” negative. Crazy times….

What comes next as earnings season begins?


Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

A teaser from Elon Musk: Master plan 2 for Tesla - Tweeted... What a master of manipulation!

Stocks up post Brexit. S&P 500 hits ALL TIME HIGH - DJIA right behind.
- Governments panic over Brexit pushed out liquidity and the potential for stimulus and now that there is not much fallout money rushing into stocks
- US 10Y bond sub 1.5%
- Commodities ramp (Gold, Silver, Copper)

Update from Myanmar - incredible trip - posted some pix on Twitter. Very poor country - highlight was cooking class on Inle River.

Interesting culture of food - most meals come with an array of salads (Penny Wort, Asparagus flower, Pickled teea leaves, tomatoes)
- AND the river is like a giant hydroponic garden for most vegetables.

Key Reversal Indicator flashing a warning sign that an imminent move lower is possible (may be shallow but market well overbought)

KRI Indicator

Pokeman GO app is something of a phenomenon. Going to be lots of injuries with this augmented reality app.
-A man has suffered the full pains of Pokemon Go after accidentally becoming the owner of a gym. Boon Sheridan woke up to find that the hugely popular augmented reality game had decided that his house was one of the game’s important gyms. That means that people are rewarded for coming to it in real life – resulting in what he said was dozens of people outside his door.

AND: At least one military base is warning service members against the dangers of wandering into unauthorized areas while chasing Pokemon. "Since Pokemon Go hit last week there have been reports of serious injuries and accidents of people driving or walking while looking at the app and chasing after the virtual Pokemon," says the message posted this morning to the Joint Base Lewis McChord official Facebook page. "Do not chase Pokemon into controlled or restricted areas, office buildings, or homes on base."

** Will the app be another way for advertising as perhaps the places that have the things to find pay to get on the game? (That is genius)

In a recent development, Intel is jotting down the options for Intel Security and it might plan to sell the Antivirus maker software formerly known as McAfee. Six years ago, the same software maker was bought by Intel for $7.7 billion. Even though Intel has declined to offer any clarity on the issue, people who are part of the ongoing discussion have indicated that the Silicon Valley chipmaker might be considering options for selling their cyber security unit to bankers, and if at all the deal is materialized, it’d be one of the largest within the sector.

SBUX - The coffee chain will boost prices on selected coffee beverages at company-operated U.S. stores, effective today. Starbucks said certain sizes of brewed coffee will see increases of 10 cents to 20 cents per cup.

Seagate is cutting 6,500 jobs or about 14 percent of the hard disk drive maker's global workforce. That announcement comes only a few weeks after Seagate announced it would reduce 1,600 jobs. Seagate also boosted its revenue guidance for the quarter that ended July 1, saying demand for its drives was strong.

The bottom line of the state of global finance:

US officials refused to prosecute HSBC for money laundering in 2012 because of concerns within the Department of Justice that it would cause a "global financial disaster", a report says. A US Congressional report revealed UK officials, including Chancellor George Osborne, added to pressure by warning the US it could lead to market turmoil. The report alleges the UK "hampered" the probe and "influenced" the outcome. HSBC was accused of letting drug cartels use US banks to launder funds.
- The bank, which has its headquarters in London, paid a $1.92bn (£1.48bn) settlement but did not face criminal charges. No top officials at HSBC faced any charges.

Can we talk about the rash of violence that is happening all over the world?

Still don't get it - Twitter is set to live-stream some of Bloomberg LP's television programs, the latest in a series of content deals struck by the microblogging service this year. (are they going to be another TV ?)


dh_CTPAnnouncing the Winner of  (none this week)

Next CTP - Nike (NKE) - Winner announced next week

Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo)dh_CTP2DHU's Official Model - Vivi Jugo


UPDATE - NEW ETF - Global X Millennials Thematic ETF Challenge!

The top holdings of Global X Millennials Thematic ETF (MILN) include stocks many investors would expect, such as Facebook, LinkedIn and Amazon, which take advantage of the tech tendencies of millennials. But some names might be more surprising like real estate investment trusts AvalonBay Communities and Equity Residential, and Home Depot, which could benefit from millennials moving out of the home of their parents.

We are creating the DH Old Codger Index Portfolio to compete against this new ETF to see how "old school" stocks do in comparison. Companies in our index will include:

  • Devita (DVA) - Dialysis/HealthCare, Tootsie Roll (TR) - Candies, Exxon Mobile (XOM) - Oil/Energy, Sears (SHLD) - Misc. Retail
  • More......

We have the performance summary running (daily and since inception of 5/6/16) - DHOCI vs. Millennials ETF Battle


Lawyers filed a $1 billion lawsuit against Facebook Inc., alleging it allowed the Palestinian militant Hamas group to use the platform to plot attacks that killed four Americans and wounded one in Israel, the West Bank and Jerusalem. “Facebook has knowingly provided material support and resources to Hamas in the form of Facebook’s online social network platform and communication services,” making it liable for the violence against the five Americans, according to the lawsuit sent to Bloomberg by the office of the Israeli lawyer on the case, Nitsana Darshan-Leitner.

Have you seen this survey? Seems bogus...  GOBankingRates.com survey that over 62% of Americans do not even have $1000 in their savings account.

Venezuela:

Citi is planning to shut down the Venezuelan government's foreign currency accounts, according to Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Citi has not made any official announcement, but Maduro criticizes the move as a "blockade."

Kimberly-Clark's plant in Venezuela will be taken over and re-activated by the government, according to the country's labor minister. The U.S. consumer products company said Monday it was suspending operations at the plant due to deteriorating economic conditions and a shortage of raw materials.

Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto was clear and blunt in his view of Donald Trump's proposed wall on the U.S. and Mexican border: There's no way his country is paying for it.

Elon Musk has no plans to disable Tesla’s Autopilot function in the wake of a fatal crash of a Model S electric car. The auto maker instead plans to redouble efforts to educate customers.

Germany Europe's growing army of robot workers could be classed as "electronic persons" and their owners liable to paying social security for them if the European Union adopts a draft plan to address the realities of a new industrial revolution.

PARTY! TMZ is claiming the former NBA star Lamar Odom had to be taken off a Delta Airlines flight leaving Los Angels on Monday night after getting drunk in the airport lounge and vomiting on the plane.

Jeep will resume production of the classic Wagoneer and Grand Wagoneer model after 2019 as the brand's luxury "pinnacle," Jeep boss Mike Manley told industry trade magazine Automotive News.

What is JCD writing about this week for PCMAG?

See this week’s stock picks HERE

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Play

DHUnplugged #319: Brexit Wrecks It

The Brexit vote sent shock wave throughout financial markets. What really happened and what is the outlook for Europe and the rest of the world?brexitonly

Is there a chance for a re-vote and an undo of the referendum? Markets jolted, financial leaders say be calm, but is this a short-term sell off or is something more ominous in store? Markets lost over $2 trillion over the last few days…

We cover the ins and outs of the markets, what could be in store and some ideas on how to profit.


Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

Brexit - Brexit - Brexit
- JCD explanation of what happened.
- Is it true the most Google'd term in UK is "What is the European Union"  ??
- Listen to latest No Agenda show for amazing coverage - Open the Chunnel! [LINK TO MP3] - Can it be reversed? (U.K. politicans say NO!)

Markets plunged around the world - MSCI Global equity index down 5% Friday, another 2% today
- Us markets hit with DJIA down 600, S&P 500 down 4% and small caps down 4.5%
- U.S. equity futures were locked down limit for about 30 minutes after the vote counted.
- S&P cuts UK rating to AA from AAA; Outlook Negative
- Crude oil down 5%, Gold up 5%

Currencies were whipped around - British pound - 7.5%, Yen +3% (clipped 100) , Euro -3% (1.10)

European banks hammered - down 15% - 25%
- DB (-17%), SAN (-19%), RBS (-27%) , LYG (-23%), BCS (-22%) , BBVA (-19%)

US Major banks
- JPM (-7%) , BAC (-7%), MS (-10%), GS (-7%)
- Smaller regions did much better

European Insurers also slammed
- ING (-19%), AV (-21%), ALIZF (-13%)

US Airlines
- DAL (-8%) , AAL (-11%)
- Smaller regions did much better

Over $2 trillion lost over past couple of days in markets - worst day ever loss in $ terms ....

Let's take a look how European markets did on Friday - (ETFs)

Europe ETfs

Time to buy some of these beaten down names????

(Trading in Barclays and RBS shares was suspended on Monday morning following heavy losses on the London Stock Exchange.)

What is the chance that the Brexit will now cause further European Union referendums to exit.

Grexit. Departugal. Italeave. Fruckoff. Czechout. Oustria. Finish. Slovlong. Latervia. Byegium.. until EU reach the state of Germlonely.

You have to love the commentary coming out of the "experts" in high places:

- IMF's Lagarde: "Markets got Brexit vote it wrong, but don't panic"

Where does market go from here? Looking at fundamentals value could be seen at 1,930 - 1950 on S&P 500. Already DJIA is down 900 points since Friday.

**** US 10-year treasury at 1.45%  - LOWEST ON RECORD **** 

This week:

- Tuesday, an E.U. leadership summit begins in Brussels; the Conference Board presents its June consumer confidence index; the April Case-Shiller home price index appears; the BEA issues its final estimate of Q1 GDP; and Nike reports quarterly results.

- Wednesday, Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen, European Central Bank president Mario Draghi, and Bank of England governor Mark Carney take part in a panel discussion at an ECB forum in Portugal; Wall Street will also pay attention to May pending home sales, May personal spending figures, and earnings news from General Mills, Monsanto, and Pier 1.

- Thursday, a new initial claims report complements earnings from ConAgra Foods, Constellation Brands, Darden Restaurants, and Paychex.

- Friday, investors consider ISM’s June U.S. manufacturing PMI and China’s latest factory PMI reading.

** During the market swoon on Friday, some interesting things occurred. Once in particular - Betterment (pure roboadvisor) shut down trading until early afternoon.
--- So many emails over past year about companies like Robinhood or Betterment as they are cheap and app based. Anyone learning a lesson on this? Will this show that it pays to pay for some help from a human?

On Twitter - someone asked if anyone has hear from the Queen on Brexit - I think I saw a comment: Brexit: Why Yes! I will have truffled eggs, a buttered muffin with gooseberry jam and tea - two lumps"

 


dh_CTPAnnouncing the Winner of Biogen

Next CTP - Nike (NKE) - Open for entries

dh_ctp_Biogen

Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo)dh_CTP2DHU's Official Model - Vivi Jugo

**** Getting many requests from listeners that they want to BUY the shirt ******


UPDATE - NEW ETF - Global X Millennials Thematic ETF Challenge!

The top holdings of Global X Millennials Thematic ETF (MILN) include stocks many investors would expect, such as Facebook, LinkedIn and Amazon, which take advantage of the tech tendencies of millennials. But some names might be more surprising like real estate investment trusts AvalonBay Communities and Equity Residential, and Home Depot, which could benefit from millennials moving out of the home of their parents.

We are creating the DH Old Codger Index Portfolio to compete against this new ETF to see how "old school" stocks do in comparison. Companies in our index will include:

  • Devita (DVA) - Dialysis/HealthCare, Tootsie Roll (TR) - Candies, Exxon Mobile (XOM) - Oil/Energy, Sears (SHLD) - Misc. Retail
  • More......

We have the performance summary running (daily and since inception of 5/6/16) - DHOCI vs. Millennials ETF Battle


Podcast awards update ? NO AGENDA WINS!!!!!!!! (News category)

Hate crimes n the rise post-Brexit vote - what is that all about?

Barron's cover this week - U.S. companies depend on domestic customers, which helps to insulate them from problems abroad. (some truth to that....but not in all cases)

Chinese authorities will require Baidu Inc. and other search engines to report banned content and verify advertisers’ qualifications in its latest attempt at Internet regulation. Under rules to take effect Aug. 1, search engines operating in the country will be prohibited from providing banned information in various formats including links, summaries, cached pages, associative words, related searches and relevant recommendations, the Cyberspace Administration of China said in a statement. They will also be required to report websites and applications that contain prohibited content when spotted, the regulator said.

Sad: New York’s landmark Waldorf Astoria hotel is scheduled to close in spring 2017 so owner Anbang Insurance Group Co. can begin converting most of the more than 1,400 rooms to luxury condominiums, said a person with knowledge of the plans.

Hawaii's governor signed a bill making it the first state to place its residents who own firearms in a federal criminal record database and monitor them for possible wrongdoing anywhere in the country, his office said.

Watch China currency - lowest in years as safe haven trades are preferred.

What is JCD writing about this week for PCMAG?

See this week’s stock picks HERE

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Play