Last week was a good week for markets ahead of some key reports and a holiday shortened trading week. DJIA up 2%, NASDAQ up 3.4%! Some better then expected economic reports, a more hawkish Fed. But could it be that the move to postpone any Greek debt write-downs for a few years AND postpone the tax hike in Japan was more beneficial to markets? Or maybe oil hitting $50 for the first time since November 2015.

DJIA up for 4 months in a row - first time since 2014!

Trial balloons by Fed and government - thoughts on that as a method of molding markets.

Crawfish Boil and BBQ last weekend at Andrew's house - Pix:

Crawfish Party 1

Crawfish Party 2

Even with the uneven housing recovery, there has been some slow, but steady improvement and last week we saw some really good reports:

- A 16.6% jump in new home sales in April, putting them at an 8-year peak.
- Housing contract activity surged 5.1% last month, according to the National Association of Realtors, reaching a level unseen since February 2006

GDP - 2nd estimate of the 1st Quarter 2016 activity was revised up (we see this many times that revisions are often to the upside). Still sluggish at 0.80% versus the estimate of 0.50% on an annualized basis.
- Some important takeaways from the GDP Report:
- Net exports continue to slide to the lowest levels in years and years
- Personal consumption is not picking up - which could explain some of the retail sales weakness
- The upward revision had a good bit to do with the change in private inventories

Barron's cover-page this week - contrary-indicator or?

Barron's Cover

Hackers infiltrated Time Inc.’s Myspace social network and published user data on an online forum shortly before Memorial Day weekend, the company said Tuesday. The data stolen includes e-mail addresses, user names and passwords for accounts created prior to June 11, 2013 on the old Myspace platform, according to a statement. The breach doesn’t affect any Time Inc. information or financial data, the New York-based publisher said.
- Why is the "old" platform still active and accessible?
- Why is any MySpace platform still active?  Has anyone seen this lately? What is the purpose --> www.myspace.com

ANNOUNCING THE WINNERS of the
DHUnplugged Closest to the Pin Contest for Intel (INTC)

Currently CTP = Fitbit (FIT)

Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo)DHU's Official Model - Vivi Jugo

UPDATE - NEW ETF - Global X Millennials Thematic ETF Challenge!

The top holdings of Global X Millennials Thematic ETF (MILN) include stocks many investors would expect, such as Facebook, LinkedIn and Amazon, which take advantage of the tech tendencies of millennials. But some names might be more surprising like real estate investment trusts AvalonBay Communities and Equity Residential, and Home Depot, which could benefit from millennials moving out of the home of their parents.

We are creating the DH Old Codger Index Portfolio to compete against this new ETF to see how "old school" stocks do in comparison. Companies in our index will include:

• Devita (DVA) - Dialysis/HealthCare
• Tootsie Roll (TR) - Candies
• Exxon Mobile (XOM) - Oil/Energy
• Sears (SHLD) - Misc. Retail
• McDonald's (MCD) - Fast Food
• Goldman Sachs (GS) - Financial
• Altria (MO) - Cigarettes
• Kroger (KR) - Food Market
• More......

We have the performance summary running (daily and since inception of 5/6/16) - DHOCI vs. Millennials ETF Battle

Let's read through this story slowly:

A former director at Barclays Plc was arrested on Tuesday on U.S. charges that he provided inside information about impending mergers he learned about at the bank to a plumber, who used the tips to make $76,000 illegally. Steven McClatchey, 58, was charged in a criminal complaint filed in Manhattan federal court with conspiracy, wire fraud and securities fraud after the plumber, Gary Pusey, secretly pleaded guilty on Friday and agreed to cooperate with authorities.
In exchange, Pusey paid thousands of dollars in cash to McClatchey, sometimes placing cash in a gym bag that McClatchey brought with him to a marina in Freeport, New York, and provided free bathroom remodeling services, authorities said.

Oil trying again for that $50 mark - keeps hitting and failing. Supplies coming down as production offline..

Some good news on the spending front - April spending on Month-over-Month basis was up 1% - better than estimates. Also, housing prices came in 5.4% higher on Year-over-Year basis. However, May consumer confidence dropped a bit to 92.6 versus estimates of 96. MIXED MESSAGES!

SodaStream (SODA) stock was left for dead as the company's products were not going anywhere. Now the company launched a new home brew beer system  and stock got some legs - ($13.50 - $21 recently)
-- The system will launch in Europe first, and is currently available on Germany's online store and at retailers in Switzerland. Other markets will launch in 2016 and 2017. The Beer Bar will allow users to make home-crafted beer "in seconds" using sparkling water and a beer concentrate. How will that taste? Why not just drink the concentrate? (Cost $5 /3 liters of beer)
-- There are other companies that make the concentrate already (Pat's) and can use carbonated water

SodaStream Beer

Starbucks Corp. (SBUX) said Tuesday that it was adding new cold coffee offerings, including Nitrogen-infused coffee in major U.S. cities, as the coffee maker tries to increase its summer-weather drinks and compete with specialty shops. The company’s “Nitro Cold Brew,” which infuses nitrogen into its slow-steeped, cold-brewed coffee, imparts a “smooth and creamy sweetness, “ the company said. Similar offerings, which are typically delivered from a beer-like tap, have been rolled out in recent years at specialty coffee shops like Stumptown Coffee Roasters.

Finally! The Securities and Exchange Commission is taking another step to crack down on corporate use of numbers that the agency fears deceives investors. The SEC’s Division of Corporation Finance is forming an internal task force to closely review the use of “non-GAAP” numbers and whether companies respond to recently updated guidance on using these metrics. The focus of this new initiative is on companies that use non-GAAP metrics to tell a misleading story, that give too much prominence to non-GAAP numbers, or promote non-GAAP metrics that exclude relevant, recurring costs. [LINK]

HOW? Core Media Group filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on Thursday, saying it has not yet found a way to replace revenue earned from "American Idol."

Jose Cuervo, the world’s biggest tequila producer, is seeking to raise as much as $1 billion in an initial public offering planned for the third quarter of this year, according to people with knowledge of the matter. (Beverage companies have been doing well of late)

Gorilla shot when toddler slips into its zoo compound. How is it possible that there are no better safeguards?

At least 2,234 Indians have contracted the deadly HIV virus while receiving blood transfusions in hospitals in the past 17 months alone. The information was revealed by the country's National Aids Control Organisation (Naco) in response to a petition filed by information activist Chetan Kothari. India has around 2.09 million people living with HIV/Aids.

Oil continues to defy logic as it rises to $44.60 after hours today. Even with record production out of Iraq and news that inventories are expected to rise. The weak economic numbers today helped as the U.S. Dollar continues to lag.

Earnings shows that Tech may have come up a bit too far in the recent rally. Google (GOOG) missed and the stock slid from $750 to $708. Netflix also missed - now at $91.50. Microsoft (MSFT) off by 12% after its earnings outlook was rather disappointing. Apple (AAPL) down 9% as it missed both top and bottom line, guides revenues and margin below estimates - BUT raises dividend and raises buyback to $175 billion (this looks like a $50 billion increase)
- Total buyback of 30% of the company!!!!!

----- Is Apple turning into IBM?

Apple metrics:

• Q2 iPhones 51.2 mln vs 51.5 mln ests vs 61.2 mln last year. (First ever iPhone sales drop)
• Q2 iPads 10.2 mln vs 9.9 mln ests vs 12.6 mln last year.
• Q2 Macs 4.0 mln vs 4.6 mln ests vs 4.5 mln last year.
• China revenue fell 26% compared to a year ago

Apple suppliers seeing weakness following earnings include: SWKS -4.0%, QRVO -3.9%. CRUS -3.0% (also reported its own earnings), AVGO -2.2%, NXPI -2.0%, QCOM -1.1%, INVN -0.9%, TXN -0.6%.

EVEN WITH ALL OF THIS NEWS - S&P 500 FUTURES HOLDING UP (So far)

Twitter (TWTR) beat by $0.05 on bottom line but missed on top and outlook was weak. However they did add 5 million users and MAU was up for the quarter (stock down 12% after hours)

This is big news: Exxon Mobil (XOM): S&P lowers credit rating to 'AA+' from 'AAA', Outlook 'Stable
- There are only 2 companies left in the U.S. that are AAA rated (MSFT and JNJ)

Baby boomers' long reign over the kingdom of American demographics has finally come to an end: Millennials have officially surpassed them as the largest living generation in the U.S. That's according to new population estimates released this month by the U.S. Census Bureau and analyzed by the Pew Research Center. (Millennials, defined by those born between 1981 and 1997, now number 75.4 million)

See this chart - What is Silent?

Population Chart

Guess what is coming tomorrow - Yes, Fed rate decision - what will they do? Stick save for failing earnings or more confusion?

ANNOUNCING THE WINNERS of the
DHUnplugged Closest to the Pin Contest for GoPro (GPRO)

Currently week CTP = Domino's Pizza (DPZ)

Will announce new longer CTP next week...

Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo)DHU's Official Model - Vivi Jugo

How stupid is this? Snapchat has a filter that lets people share how fast they're traveling while they take selfies.
-- A car accident victim is blaming Snapchat's speed filter for a crash that left him with traumatic brain injuries, according to a new lawsuit.The plaintiff, Wentworth Maynard, was merging onto a four lane highway outside of Atlanta, Georgia when his car was struck "so violently it shot across the left lane into the left embankment," his lawyers contend. Christal McGee was allegedly driving the car that struck him. The lawsuit says that she was on her phone trying to use the Snapchat speed filter at the time of the accident.

Seems that Volkswagen was looking to cheat as far back as 2006 -  A presentation discovered as part of the investigations into Volkswagen provides a direct link to the genesis of the deception, involving vehicles equipped with software to cheat on the tests.

Thoughts on the current Presidential campaigns?

Is this a good thing? The Bank of Japan may become an even bigger shareholder of the nation’s equities if policy makers decide to boost stimulus this week. The central bank’s holdings have been rising since it began buying Japanese exchange traded funds at the start of the decade, and now account for more than half of those ETFs. (also now the largest shareholder in many of the stocks listed on the Nikkei 225)

BOJ Holdings

What is Dvorak writing about for PC Magazine?

Twist - Electric vehicles in Hong Kong may indirectly be the cause of almost 20 percent more carbon dioxide emissions than gasoline-fueled motors, undermining the city’s efforts to get ‘green’ cars on the road, according to Sanford C. Bernstein.

Last week's TDI Podcast - introduced a new way for investors to track their results and have opportunity to gain outside funds to manage with Jack Schwager. Pretty cool concept.

Cue the Trumpets! DJIA over 18,000 and S&P 500 over 2100!

NADA in DOHA - No Deal on oil production freeze. Doomed from the start... However... Oil at $42
-- Kuwait strike takes 1.6m barrels/day offline
-- Nigeria has pipeline issue
-- IRAQ production interrupted

Crude Chart

Saudi Arabia - threatened to sell all their U.S. Treasury holdings - estimated at $750 billion my some if the 28 pages of redacted information on the 9/11 report is released. Also pending legistlation that would allow for victims of 9/11 to directly sue... (Not going to pass - or is it?)

IBM now racks up 16 consecutive quarters of declining revenue. EPS beat, but company is still suffering - Stock up near $143 (was $117 in February)

Yahoo! - Verizon still seems to be the front-runner in the "bidding" for Yahoo! assets/company. What does this do for them? Seems like the old Time Warner /AOL deal.

Seeing more sporting goods stores file for bankruptcy - The owner of Eastern Mountain Sports, which has 13 stores in Massachusetts, and Bob's Stores, which has 11 Bay State locations, has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, with debts over $500 million.

Sport Chalet has announced the closure of all its stores in the next several weeks. The Southern California-based sporting goods company owns 47 stores in about 50 locations in California, Nevada, Utah and Arizona. The company issued an online statement saying that its stores have begun the process of closing on April 16, but it offered no explanation. The company stopped selling merchandise online but its retail stores will remain open for several weeks in order for customers to use their rewards and gift cards.
-- At the same time there is rumor that Bass Pro Shops is possibly looking to buyout Cabelas (CAB)

Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the worst performer in the Dow Jones Industrial Average this year, posted a 60 percent drop in profit as the firm reported its lowest revenue for a first quarter since Chief Executive Officer Lloyd Blankfein took the top post.

Goldman Sachs Chart

Netflix (NFLX) - earnings out and while the company beat expectations, the outlook was miserable - at best. Stock down 11% to $96 after saying that international growth will expand much less that expected and investors seeing more competition from Amazon and others.

Intel (INTC) earnings were messy. Overall not a good outlook for the next quarter or so. Reducing outlook, cutting 11% of workforce and announced restructuring. Shares slipping again down to the $30 support level.

ANNOUNCING THE WINNERS of the
DHUnplugged Closest to the Pin Contest for Transocean LTD

Currently week CTP = GoPro (GPRO)

ANNOUNCING - Domino's Pizza (DPZ)

Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo)

Sunglasses from Spitfire and more!

DHU's Official Model - Vivi Jugo

Apple (AAPL) - announced last week that they will be slowing down production as inventory builds are seen. Same game plan as last quarter ? At that time suppliers tanked and then ramped higher when sales were not seen as soft as expected.

Back on the "no privacy" train: In its latest report on government requests for user information released Monday, Apple revealed U.S. law enforcement agencies lodged 1,015 requests for customer account information affecting 5,192 users in the second half of 2015. (Not time to be a criminal like the old days)

Smart mattress: Sleep tracking is nothing new, but one company wants to track when your mattress is being used, especially if you're not home. (WHY???)

And now - the Bloomberg Top 10 biz schools (under-grad)  [LINK]

Bloomberg Top 10 Undergrad Biz Schools

UnitedHealth Group (UNH) said it would remain in only a very small number of the Affordable Care Act’s marketplaces next year and suggested that it doesn’t currently see a way to run the business effectively.

Who should be on the $10 bill? Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew planned last year to announce a redesign of the $10 bill that would put Susan B. Anthony on the front, but he changed course and decided to ask the public which woman should go on the bill. (Is this a smack to the face of Hamilton? and is the only woman in history they can think of?)

Scam: Theranos...Federal prosecutors are investigating whether the blood-testing company misled investors about the state of its technology and operations.

In some cases in Denmark and Sweden, banks are paying the homeowners mortgage interest as negative rates hit hard.

Saw this while waiting in doctor's office...

  Adult Coloring

And to finish it off - Friday is Earth Day - what are we doing to celebrate?

Markets have been trading sideways - up to resistance and then slowly stagnating. Volume has been anemic. Monday volume lowest of the year. Then....

Yellen speaking today in NY - dovish as can be... Here are a few of the highlights

• Importantly, this forecast is not a plan set in stone that will be carried out regardless of economic developments. Instead, monetary policy will, as always, respond to the economy's twists and turns so as to promote, as best as we can in an uncertain economic environment, the employment and inflation goals assigned to us by the Congress.
• Looking forward however, we have to take into account the potential fallout from recent global economic and financial developments, which have been marked by bouts of turbulence since the turn of the year.
• The Committee continues to expect moderate economic growth over the medium term accompanied by further labor market improvement.
• There is a consensus that China's economy will slow in the coming years...
• The inflation outlook has also become somewhat more uncertain since the turn of the year, in part for reasons related to risks to the outlook for economic growth.
• Given the risks to the outlook, I consider it appropriate for the Committee to proceed cautiously in adjusting policy. This caution is especially warranted because, with the federal funds rate so low, the FOMC's ability to use conventional monetary policy to respond to economic disturbances is asymmetric. If economic conditions were to strengthen considerably more than currently expected, the FOMC could readily raise its target range for the federal funds rate to stabilize the economy. By contrast, if the expansion was to falter or if inflation was to remain stubbornly low, the FOMC would be able to provide only a modest degree of additional stimulus by cutting the federal funds rate back to near zero.

Naturally, post comments markets shot higher - except banks

Bank Stocks

What the Yellen commentary is saying is that there is a lot more to fear about the global economy than we think... Her speech had plenty to say about it and it is not usual that the Fed discusses things so overtly if they are not big issues.

Another example: Japan’s industrial production dropped the most since 2011 in February, as falling exports sapped demand and a steel-mill explosion halted domestic car production at Toyota Motor Corp. Output slumped 6.2 percent after rising 3.7 percent in January, the trade ministry said on Wednesday. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had forecast a 5.9 percent drop.

Small business hiring hot spots. See chart below...

Small Biz Hiring in USA

Crafty plan: Canadian energy companies with surplus cash are buying back bonds on the cheap to help shore up balance sheets amid the worst oil downturn in decades. “If they can go out and spend $100 in cash and buy their bonds at 60 cents on the dollar, it’s a reduction in net leverage,” said Nicholas Leach, a high-yield portfolio manager at CIBC Asset Management Inc.

Virgin America (VA) — The airline's stock continues to be on watch today, after multiple reports Monday said JetBlue and Alaska Air were planning bids for their rival airline. Reuters is also reporting that various Asian airlines may also be interested in Virgin America.

The FBI caved - now THEY have the means to unlock the iPhone...

*** Is there growing apathy about terrorist acts? Quite the week we have had... Brussels, Iraq and a passenger falsely claiming he was armed with explosives hijacked an EgyptAir plane carrying 71 other people and forced it to land in Cyprus.

• Limited response from markets on any of the latest events.

ANNOUNCING THE WINNER of the
DHUnplugged Closest to the Pin Contest for Ford (F)

US Steel (X) and Michael Kors (KORS) announced as well... Coming up end of this week -Transocean LTD

Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo),
Sunglasses from Spitfire and more!

DHU's Official Model - Vivi Jugo

Well known hedge fund manager Kyle Bass - reportedly owns $20 million of nickles and has advocated owning physical gold and platinum rather than financial instruments tied to the precious metals. (where do you keep all those nickles?)
*-*-*- Bonus Question: How much does $20 million of nickles weigh?   4,464,285.71 pounds

Nippon Telegraph & Telephone Corp., the former telephone monopoly in Japan, agreed to buy technology services businesses from Dell for $3.055 billion as the company seeks to expand overseas to counter an aging domestic market.

Last week we discuss how Lumber Liquidators (LL) shot up on report of settlements that appeared fishy. Since then stock retraced all of the move.

SunEdison (SUNE) - In real trouble now - SEC investigation about their recent report on company liquidity in question. Stock down 50% on the news.

Yahoo — Yahoo has given possible suitors until Apr. 11 to submit bids for its assets, according to the Wall Street Journal. Yahoo is said to be shopping both the core web business and its stakes in Alibaba and Yahoo Japan.(Will MSFT be in the deal?)

A California judge ordered a now-defunct for-profit college chain to pay more than $1 billion Wednesday over claims the company misled students and investors. (How are they going to pay that?)