DHUnplugged #299: Blood In The Streets

dh_299There has been no let up of the selling pressure. Even with an overnight pop, stocks lost most of their luster as the correction continues.

Earnings season is now in full swing and even as we see some decent beats, that is not helping. Banks are expecting big losses on energy related debt and few companies have bright outlooks to share.


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Three Powerball winners – Since we are still doing the show, assume that neither of us won?

Market update: At the end of last week, January 2016 moved up to the #1 worst January since 1966. While it came off the bottom Friday, it is still in the Top 3. Oil dropping, concern over rising provisions at banks for bad debt, consumers spending less and the outlook for earnings still has a cloud hanging over markets. Today we are seeing a bit of a relief rally from an oversold condition – will it last? (All major indices in correction territory now)

BIG reversal (again) today. Futures on S&P 500 were up 24 handles pre-market. By mid-day they were flat. Sellers are not kidding around. (By 2pm, all major indices in the red)

Slowest growth in 25 years! China GDP 6.8% – world markets watching this closely as concern over the growth of the country’s economy could be a problem for the rest of the world. Lowest GDP since 2009. The question is: Do we believe it?

– Several analysts out saying that GDP may really be well below, possibly 5%

– China may need to continue to devalue the Yuan to reduce debt and stoke growth

China GDP Trend

Iran economic sanctions lifted. Iran immediately added 500,000 barrels per day to oil production. Sent Brent crude under $29. Current forecasts are all over the place – see chart.

Brent Crude Forecast

Over five million jobs will be lost by 2020 as a result of developments in genetics, artificial intelligence, robotics and other technological change, according to World Economic Forum research. (But there are over 3 billion employed worldwide, is this a big deal?) (LINK)

Seems that there is not just one cockroach. Renault SA shares plunged the most in 17 years after a union said French fraud investigators seized computers from the automaker, apparently as part of a probe into emissions testing. (Seems that Europe is not very concerned and wants to possibly change emissions rules as their auto sector could be hit by these findings)

Problem for the big ticket housing market? The Treasury Department’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network said that it will seek out the identity of individuals behind limited-liability companies that pay cash for high-end residential real estate in Manhattan and Miami-Dade County. Starting in March, title insurers will be required to name the true “beneficial owner” behind the anonymous entities.

Bank earnings are flowing in – while they look good on the surface, there is concern over the outlook and loan loss provisions. Bank of America (BAC) reported and stock down again. (Also concern about banks in Europe as potential for banking crisis rising again) For 2016:

– Bank of America (BAC): – 16%
– Goldman Sachs (GS):  -13%
– Morgan Stanley (MS): -17%
– Wells Fargo (WFC): -10%
– JP Morgan (JPM): -14%

Signs that the high end shopper/International consumer is pulling back: Tiffany & Co. said Tuesday that sales during the holiday period softened, prompting the luxury jeweler to reduce staff and cut its outlook for the year. The New York company said “challenging and uncertain global economic conditions” have resulted in restrained consumer spending, and a stronger U.S. dollar continues to dent foreign tourist spending. For the crucial holiday shopping season, Tiffany reported a 3% currency-adjusted drop in world-wide sales and a 5% decline in sales at stores open at least a year.

This story is making the rounds – apparently there is a desire to kick up the “Occupy Movement” again: Last year, just 62 individuals held wealth equivalent to the amount owned by 3.6 billion people, about half the world’s population. In monetary terms, that club of 62 has seen its riches climb by $542 billion, or 44%, to $1.76 trillion since 2010. That’s as the less-fortunate half has seen its wealth slide by 41%.

What is going on? Penthouse Magazine, the long-running and raunchier rival of Playboy, said Friday that it is ending its print edition after 50 years on the newsstand and will now only be offered in digital format.

– Didn’t Playboy Magazine discontinue publishing nude pictures recently? Must be that FREE WebSex is very easy to access…

The new Showtime Series: Billions… Pretty wild look at the inside of Hedge funds and the govy.

Twitter (TWTR) – Experienced widespread outage today. 1-2 hours depending on the area. Twitter blaming glitch in software update, now under $17 (- 7%)

Some in U.K. government are trying to ban Donald Trump from coming to the country. Since he said that all Muslims should not be able to visit, they want to do the same to him.

From the ridiculous files: Pamela Anderson, will grace members of the French national assembly with her presence on Tuesday to support proposed legislation that would outlaw methods used in foie gras production. Force feeding ducks and geese aka “gavage” is a process by which food is pumped into the bird’s stomach to enlarge its liver in order to produce the popular French delicacy. (LINK)

Netflix (NFLX) reported earnings tonight after the close. Stock has traded up virtually every January report. Expectations are for EPS of $0.02 on $1.83 billion of sales. (Stock up 14% after hours)

-Netflix reports Q4 Domestic Sub adds of 1.56 mln vs 1.65 mln and guidance; International subs 4.04 mln vs 3.50 mln guidance

-Netflix prelim Q4 $0.10 vs $0.02 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $1.82 bln vs $1.83 bln Capital IQ Consensus; sees Q1 EPS $0.03 vs. $0.03 Consensus

IBM reported earnings today as well. Beat on EPS $4.84 vs. $4.81, light on revenues. 15 straight quarters of revenue declines. Needless to say, stock at 52-week low…($123.14 after hours)

Sara Palin endorses Donald Trump – bet he is happy about that… (LINK)

 

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