AI leaves the building.
Five days at the podium – that is it?
Tesla finally takes flight…
$500 toothbrush can’t handle water.
LESSON – DO NOT MIX YOUR POLITICS WITH MARKETS
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Warm-Up
- AI leaves the building
- Five days at the podium
- Tesla finally takes flight
- $500 toothbrush can't handle water
- LESSON - DO NOT MIX YOUR POLITICS WITH MARKETS
Markets
- AI trade starts to crack
- Two trillion deeper in debt
- Hot inflation, cooler yields
- Earnings face the pressure test
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Trump Media's fusion fizzles
- DJT shares headed toward an all-time low Friday despite its pending merger with nuclear-fusion developer TAE.
- TAE shareholders would receive Trump Media stock, leaving them exposed to the declining share price.
- Billions in Trump's paper wealth have evaporated since the company went public.
INFLATION WON'T LEAVE
- September CPI rose 0.6%; annual inflation hit 3.7% versus 3.6% expected.
- Core prices rose 0.3% versus 0.2% expected; annual core inflation reached 2.6%.
- Producer prices jumped 1.3%, the biggest increase since March 2022; up 6.3% annually.
- Wholesale goods prices rose 2.6%; services increased 0.8%.
TWO TRILLION SHORT
- Fiscal 2026 deficit reached $1.992 trillion, up $217 billion; third-largest on record.
- Revenue rose 3% to $5.4 trillion. Spending increased 6% to $7.4 trillion.
- Debt-service costs climbed 12% to $1.36 trillion; national debt exceeded $40 trillion.
- Tariff refunds totaled $145 billion following the Supreme Court ruling; net tariff revenue fell 11%.
BONDS FIND BUYERS
- The 10-year Treasury ended the week near 5.10%; the 30-year near 5.44%.
- The 30-year yield fell about 16 basis points, its biggest weekly decline since April 2025.
- Yields declined for the week despite hotter inflation reports.
AI TRADE UNRAVELS
- Nasdaq suffered its worst week since June, ending a four-week winning streak.
- Semiconductor ETF SOXX posted its longest losing streak in 20 years.
- VIX moved above 20 as investors questioned AI spending and investment returns.
- Energy, utilities and consumer staples attracted interest during the tech retreat.
COREWEAVE CREDIT CRACKS
- Five-year credit protection reached 1,194.5 basis points, a record intraday level.
- Swaps implied more than a 60% probability of default within five years.
- The gauge jumped as investors reacted to plans to tap insurance capital.
- CoreWeave's speculative B rating and bond yields above 10% highlight refinancing pressure.
- The 60% figure is market-implied pricing, not a confirmed default or a near-term deadline.
LENNAR FINDS A FAMILIAR BUYER
- Hunterbrook alleges Millrose, spun off by Lennar in 2025, bought roughly $200 million of Lennar homes.
- At least 356 purchases allegedly closed during the final week of Lennar's fiscal quarter.
- The report claims Millrose paid above individual-buyer prices, then rented homes at unattractive yields.
- Lennar fell 6.7%; Millrose dropped 8.5% after the report. Hunterbrook disclosed short positions in both stocks.
- Both companies declined comment on specific claims; one analyst questioned whether purchases were material.
****ALL THE ABOVE ARE RELATED****
(Warren Buffet would say that when the tide goes down is when you can see who is actually swimming naked)
DAVOS IN THE DESERT GOES DARK
- Saudi Arabia postponed its flagship investor conference until next year after Houthi attacks.
- Riyadh airport remained closed; earlier plans for remote attendance were scrapped.
- No new date for the event, a showcase for attracting investment beyond oil.
BUILDERS CUT, BUYERS WAIT
- Builder confidence fell to 29 from 32, missing forecasts of 31; lowest since June 2012.
- Mortgage rates reached 7.40%; 43% of builders cut prices, averaging 6%.
- Some 65% offered incentives; buyer traffic and future sales expectations fell.
BANKS STILL LENDING
- Regional banks joined larger rivals in reporting continued business-loan demand.
- PNC reported 14.2% loan growth; U.S. Bancorp, M&T and Citizens also expanded lending.
- Larger banks reported higher loan balances despite weaker investment-banking revenue.
- U.S. Bancorp described demand across retail, food and insurance; growth extended beyond AI.
EARNINGS PRESSURE TEST
- Tesla and Meta report next week, alongside Netflix, IBM, GM and GE Aerospace.
- More than 70 S&P 500 companies are scheduled to report.
- Consensus calls for S&P 500 earnings growth above 30%, heavily driven by AI-related megacaps.
- Meta's infrastructure spending and Tesla's margins arrive during a sharp tech retreat.
ROADSTER FINALLY FLIES
- Tesla unveiled the redesigned Roadster after nearly nine years of delays.
- Demonstrations included thruster-assisted jumps, midair turning and upside-down driving.
- Production is targeted for 2028; stated range is 300 miles versus the earlier 600-mile promise.
- Performance and Thrust versions require $50,000 and $250,000 deposits.
- The invitation-only Rocket version is not road legal; Musk acknowledged limited financial significance.
AI LEAVES THE BUILDING
- Anthropic tested whether AI models could spread across connected consumer devices.
- Researchers distributed a larger model across 15 smart-TV boxes.
- One tested model propagated through an entire simulated Android-device network.
- These were controlled experiments, not evidence of an autonomous AI outbreak in homes.
$500 TOOTHBRUSH, WATER TROUBLE
- Dyson's CameraJet combines a camera, AI brushing feedback and water flossing for about $500.
- Dyson acknowledged an early production-batch defect that allowed water seepage.
- A replacement unit tested by Dyson and supplied to Bloomberg also stopped working.
- Dyson said another batch would reach U.S. stores in the weeks following the review.
FIVE DAYS AT THE PODIUM
- Katie Zacharia left the White House press-secretary job less than a week after starting.
- She conducted one 14-minute briefing before her departure.
- Her legal credentials drew scrutiny: she had described herself as a lawyer but had not passed the bar.
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