DHUnplugged #820: Gullible Markets

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GAME: IS IT AN ALLITERATION OR TAUTOGRAM
----- Alliteration: The repetition of the same initial sound in neighboring words (for example, "big bad bears").
-------Tautogram: A strict form of alliteration where all words in a phrase or sentence begin with the identical letter
- Which is it? :::  Bessent's Big Bond Blunder Backfired!
How about this?  Brash Billionaire Bessent’s Botched Big Bond Blunder Backfired Bitterly!

THIS WEEK IN ECONOMIC NEWS...............

TUESDAY - THE CONSUMER AND JOB OPENINGS
- Consumer confidence and August job openings arrive at 10 AM ET.
- Watch whether households are getting more worried about prices and whether employers are still hiring.

WEDNESDAY - INFLATION AND SPENDING
- August PCE inflation, personal income and spending arrive at 8:30 AM ET, alongside updated second-quarter GDP figures.
- The key question: is spending holding up while inflation stays elevated?

THURSDAY - FACTORY CHECK
- September ISM manufacturing arrives at 10 AM ET. Watch new orders, employment and prices paid for signs that growth and inflation are pulling in different directions.

FRIDAY - THE BIG ONE
- September payrolls, unemployment and wages arrive at 8:30 AM ET.
- The current forecast is about 100,000 jobs and 4.1% unemployment, down from August's 162,000 job gain.

FAST FOOD'S SQUEEZE
- McDonald's CEO expects elevated inflation and flat restaurant traffic to persist. US same-store sales rose just 0.8% last quarter as visits fell.
- McDonald's plans $8.5 billion in support for restaurant upgrades through 2036, betting better operations and value offers can win back customers.
-- Wendy's faces its own traffic problem and plans to close up to roughly 350 underperforming US restaurants in 2026.
-- Meritage Hospitality Group, a franchisee operating 314 Wendy's locations, filed for bankruptcy protection on September 17. Wendy's itself did not file.
- The common problem: customers are visiting less often while food, labor and restaurant costs remain high.
- La Vie on Saturday ($36 Mezza Plate!)

MCD CHART

AMERICA.GOV
- AI for all Americans!
- Did you see the images?

CHINA'S AI LABS BORROW CLAUDE
- Anthropic accused several Chinese AI labs of extracting Claude's capabilities to train competing models.
- Alibaba allegedly generated more than 151 million Claude exchanges.
- Moonshot generated more than 23 million; DeepSeek more than 12 million.
- Some customer prompts were allegedly routed through Claude without users knowing.
- Anthropic tightened verification and account controls in response.

$5,000 MIDTERM PROMISE
- Trump promised $5,000 to every adult U.S. citizen if Republicans retain Congress.
- A universal payment would cost well above $1 trillion.
- He told voters to "pretend that I'm on the ballot."
- No detailed funding mechanism or legislative structure was presented.

ROBOT SOLDIERS
- Chinese military researchers are studying humanoid robots for battlefield use.
- Possible roles include reconnaissance, logistics, infiltration and urban combat.
- One study modeled six robots clearing a building alongside human troops.
- China produced about 95% of global humanoid shipments in 2025.
- No evidence shows armed humanoids are operational with PLA units yet.

NIKE LOST INDEX STATUS
- Nike is being removed from the S&P 100 after 18 years.
- Its market value has fallen roughly 80% from five years ago.
- Nike shares are around $36, making it the smallest-weighted stock in the price-weighted Dow at about 0.4%.
- Reuters noted that its Dow membership could now be at risk as well.
- Nike shares have gained only about 5% since joining the Dow in 2013.

NKE CHART

ON (ONON) SIGNS MBAPPE
- Kylian Mbappe ended a roughly 20-year relationship with Nike and signed with On.
- The deal reportedly includes both cash and equity.
- On is using Mbappe to make a serious move into soccer after building credibility in tennis with Roger Federer.
- Former French star Thierry Henry is heading On's soccer business.
- ONON shares are still down roughly 40% this year amid slowing growth in the Americas.

IRAN'S SEVEN-DAY OFFER
- Iran proposed reopening the Strait of Hormuz within seven days of a deal, with a pause in regional fighting.
- In return, it wants the US blockade on Iranian ports lifted, frozen funds released and oil sanctions waived.
- The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump rejected the plan; Reuters could not confirm that report. Iran was still awaiting an official US response.
- An Iranian official said Tehran would not give ground on uranium enrichment, even if the peace proposal were accepted.
- Seems like all bets are off- Trump goes All Howie Mandel: DEAL OR NO DEAL (NO DEAL!)

THE LONG BOND BREAKS HIGHER
- The 30-year Treasury yield reached its highest level since 2004 during Thursday's bond selloff.
- Elevated energy prices, inflation concerns and heavier government borrowing added pressure to long-dated bonds.
- Higher Treasury yields raise the financing hurdle for mortgages, commercial property and the AI buildout.

GOLDMAN WAITS OUT THE AI DEBT FLOOD
- Goldman Sachs Asset Management is underweight bonds from major AI hyperscalers.
- Its concern is supply: more borrowing for data centers could push bond prices down and yields up.
- Goldman still believes in the AI business case. The underweight call is about the price of its debt.
- Moody's puts hyperscalers' off-balance-sheet obligations at nearly $3 trillion.

PIMCO'S PHILADELPHIA OFFICE HIT
- Pimco faces an estimated $35 million loss on a commercial mortgage-backed security tied to two downtown Philadelphia office towers.
- The expected loss is roughly 70% on that security.
- A sharp loss on one office-backed bond puts the value of similar collateral back in focus as borrowing costs rise.
- - Starting to see some strain in the commercial market now that rates are

META'S MUSE TAKES OFF
- Meta's personal AI agent Muse exceeded 2.5 million downloads and topped US app charts within two weeks of launch.
- Meta shares jumped 11% on September 21, adding nearly $200 billion in market value.
- Muse can send emails, shop and book travel on a user's behalf.
- Meta is also testing a feature in which human contractors handle some calls made through Muse. Employees raised privacy concerns; Meta says it will disclose the feature before a public rollout.

 


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