DHUnplugged #824: Little Jensen’s Mishap

We are going to spend some time on NVDA and Jensen’s problem

Remember, biggest moves happen in BEAR markets

CPI hits hot again – now they are talking about

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BIG CASH PILE, BIGGER COMMITMENTS
- Anthropic's updated filing shows $131.8 billion in cash and short-term investments.
- Total liquidity of $146.6 billion also includes available credit; that portion is not cash in the bank.
- Purchase and lease commitments total $895.4 billion, with $69.8 billion due over the next 12 months.
- About $447.5 billion is expected through 2030; most remaining commitments extend through 2045.

ANTHROPIC'S TRILLION-DOLLAR HAIRCUT
- Earlier IPO hopes approached $2 trillion; prospective investors now discuss $1.2-$1.3 trillion, with some considering $1.1 trillion.
- Formal IPO marketing is expected next week; these are investor indications, not a final offering price.
- Third-quarter revenue reached $17 billion, but the company reported a $23.3 billion quarterly net loss.
- Nine-month losses included a $94 billion financing-related accounting adjustment; headline losses are not equivalent to cash burn.

MICROSOFT UNPLUGS ORACLE CAPACITY
- Microsoft reportedly declined to renew an Oracle AI-computing contract and has been switching off rented capacity.
- The servers used older Nvidia chips that no longer met Microsoft's evolving specifications.
- The arrangement began in 2023 to support AI-powered Bing; its full financial size was not disclosed.
- Separately, IREN delayed infrastructure deliveries after Microsoft requested network-design changes.

JENSEN AND NVDA
- JSD tells it like it is....

MODERNA - GOOD DATA, TERRIBLE STOCK REACTION
- Moderna shares plunged 17.6% despite positive cancer data.
- Merck partnership showed a 42% reduction in melanoma recurrence or death risk.
- Two-year cancer-free survival: 82.2% versus 70%.
- Trial results reportedly leaked ahead of conference; shares had already gained over 500% earlier this year.

Lesson: WHY MODERNA PLUNGED DESPITE GOOD RESULTS
- EXPECTATIONS TOO HIGH - Moderna shares had surged more than 500% in 2026, pricing in nearly perfect cancer vaccine results.
- KEY DATA DISAPPOINTED - Vaccine reduced melanoma recurrence or death risk by 42%, but distant metastasis risk reduction was only 38%, versus 59%-65% in earlier trials.
- EARLY DATA LEAK - Results appeared on an oncology website before the scheduled presentation, triggering heavy selling and a 17.6% stock plunge.

MERGER COLLAPSES OVER WHO GETS THE TOP JOB
- Johnson & Johnson and Smith & Nephew discussed merging J&J's orthopedic medical-device business.
- Financial terms and deal structure reportedly agreed.
- J&J favored former Smith & Nephew CEO Namal Nawana; Smith & Nephew favored current CEO Deepak Nath.
- Advanced negotiations reportedly collapsed over who would lead the combined company.
- Obviously this was never about what is best for shareholders - rather what is best for management....

PRESS BRIEFING OR FIGHT NIGHT?
- Trump says he offered UFC chief Dana White the White House press secretary job.
- He suggested White bring MMA fighters as assistants, including Khabib Nurmagomedov and Amanda Nunes.
- Acceptance and a formal appointment were not confirmed in the reports.

SEIZURES DROP MORE THAN 90%
- Three patients with drug-resistant epilepsy received experimental gene therapy directly into their brains.
- The treatment combined gene-carrying viruses with low-dose clozapine; average seizure frequency fell 92.6%.
- Early results from just three people; effectiveness and safety still need confirmation in larger trials.

 


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