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BOND YIELDS KEEP CLIMBING
- Japan now has a 3% 10-year yield while carrying government debt above 200% of GDP.
- Higher Japanese yields also create an incentive for domestic investors to bring money home rather than reaching overseas for returns.
- The broader bond selloff is hitting the U.S., Germany, U.K. and Japan at the same time.

FED HIKE ODDS RISE
- Warsh said the Fed still has “work to do” if officials are not confident inflation is returning to 2%.
- Fed Governor Christopher Waller has left open the possibility of holding rates steady if inflation cools.
- The September decision is increasingly being dictated by incoming inflation data and oil.
-  It is kinda funny.... The “data-dependent Fed” is now apparently oil-dependent, jobs-dependent and whatever-CPI-says-next-week-dependent.

OIL KEEPS PRESSURE ON INFLATION
- Renewed U.S.-Iran tensions have pushed oil higher and revived fears about supply through the Strait of Hormuz.
- The Strait remains one of the most important chokepoints for global energy flows.
- Oil is working directly against central banks trying to bring inflation back toward target.
-  Basically, central banks can raise rates all they want yet it is too bad that the the Strait of Hormuz does not attend FOMC meetings.

SCHWAB VOLATILITY TRADE
- Barron's argues low market volatility may not last as fall seasonality and macro risks build.
- Schwab could benefit if volatility drives heavier customer trading activity.
- The suggested trade used an October risk reversal built around $110 puts and $120 calls.

BEAR INVASION
- Colorado has logged more than 7,000 bear sightings this year, already a record.
- Drought and poor natural food supplies are pushing bears into homes and businesses.
- New Mexico and Utah have also reported unusually high numbers of bears being euthanized.
- One Colorado homeowner found two bears inside his hallway; another wandered into a vape shop.
- Is this a warning for markets?????

META SETTLEMENT
- Meta agreed to pay up to $18 billion over 10 years to settle state claims involving harm to children.
- States had been seeking penalties approaching $200 billion.
- Teen accounts will face time limits, overnight restrictions and muted school-hour notifications.
- Meta did not have to eliminate personalized recommendations or targeted advertising.

BROADCOM: NEXT AI CHECK
- Broadcom reports Wednesday after the close, another major test of AI spending after Nvidia.
- Focus will be on AI semiconductor growth, hyperscaler demand and the outlook for custom AI accelerators.
- Broadcom's guidance matters beyond the stock because it offers a read on whether huge data-center spending plans are still accelerating.

WEIRD ONE: SHEIN'S UPSIDE-DOWN IPO
- Shein is looking to raise about $1.8 billion in its Hong Kong IPO while paying roughly $3.6 billion in cash and stock to early investors.
- The payouts stem from investor protections triggered after Shein's valuation collapsed from about $98 billion in 2022 to roughly $26.8 billion.
- Some of the same early investors receiving compensation are coming back as cornerstone buyers in the IPO.
- Essentially: raise $1.8 billion from new investors while sending twice that amount back to older ones.

GOOD GOOD GOES BAD
- Good Good Golf's controversial Callaway ad showed co-founder Garrett Clark shoving a female creator in a movie spoof, triggering immediate backlash.
- Callaway ended its partnership, Dick's and Golf Galaxy pulled Good Good merchandise, and Golf Channel canceled the current "Big Break x Good Good" season.
- Good Good also stepped away as title sponsor of the PGA Tour's November event in Austin.
- WOW - the company had more than 2 million YouTube followers and become one of golf's fastest-growing media and merchandise businesses before the blowup.

ARGENTINA BEEF PRICE FIX
- Trump expanded lower-tariff beef imports by 300,000 metric tons in an effort to bring down record-high U.S. beef prices.
- The U.S. cattle herd is at its lowest level in 75 years, while USDA expects beef production to fall roughly 4% this year.
- Argentina is one source of additional supply, but U.S. ranchers argue cheaper imports could undercut domestic producers just as they are trying to rebuild herds.
- Trump says imported beef could help lower prices; farm-state lawmakers and ranch groups say the short-term consumer fix could make the long-term supply problem worse.

EUROPE GETS GROWTH AND INFLATION
- Euro-zone manufacturing is expanding at its fastest pace in more than four years as headline inflation moves back above 3%.
- Stronger factories give the ECB more room to tighten without immediately crushing economic activity.
- Much of the new inflation pressure is energy-driven, which higher ECB rates cannot directly fix.
- Europe finally gets better manufacturing numbers, so naturally the reward is another rate hike.

CHINA’S TWO-SPEED ECONOMY
- The private manufacturing PMI showed expansion while the official factory reading remained in contraction.
- Export orders strengthened, but services and domestic demand remain weak.
- The divergence shows the improvement remains concentrated in exporters.
- Alternative Facts: Depending on which PMI you prefer, China’s factory sector is either expanding or contracting. Two economies for the price of one.

THE $50 BILLION DATA-CENTER IPO
- SB Energy is reportedly seeking a valuation above $50 billion despite having no operational data centers.
- It reported about $139 million of first-half revenue against a $3.21 billion net loss.
- The company claims roughly $439 billion of project backlog.
- OpenAI is an investor, warrant holder and major future customer; Nvidia is also providing capital while supplying the chips.
- Soooooo...... No operating data centers, billions in losses and a possible $50 billion valuation. At least they remembered to build the valuation first.

NVIDIA BUYS HUGGING FACE FOR $13 BILLION
- Nvidia agreed to buy Hugging Face for about $12.9 billion.
- Hugging Face was valued at $4.5 billion in 2023 and has about $150 million in annual revenue.
- Nvidia will pay roughly $11.9 billion to shareholders plus $1 billion in employee retention equity.
- Hugging Face will remain open and interoperable.
- JC Called this earlier last week. Obviusly the pressure was on since his scoop and they needed to get this done.

UNCLE SAM'S STOCK PORTFOLIO
- Federal equity positions now include Intel, MP Materials and Trilogy Metals.
- Intel, MP Materials and Trilogy Metals all jumped after their respective government deals.
- An Intel shareholder lawsuit argues the CHIPS Act did not authorize the government to demand an equity stake.
- The case could affect other government investments made using CHIPS Act funding.

GEN Z DUMPS THE BUBBLES
- Non-carbonated drinks accounted for 38% of new premixed-alcohol launches last year, up from 27% in 2021.
- Boston Beer’s Sun Cruiser is growing while Truly slows.
- Mom Water is on pace to exceed 1 million cases this year.
- Lucky One Lemonade sold 1 million cases in its first seven months.
- Gen Z has apparently decided carbonation was the problem.

TRUMP WANTS LOWER RATES
- President Trump called for lower interest rates after the August jobs report.
- Markets moved the other way, increasing expectations for a September Fed hike.
- Kevin Warsh has kept another rate increase on the table.
- Markets were pricing roughly a 60%-plus chance of a quarter-point September hike.

JOBS REPORT CRUSHES ESTIMATES
- August payrolls rose 162,000 versus roughly 56,000 expected.
- July was revised from a 23,000 decline to a 21,000 gain.
- Unemployment held at 4.1%.
- Labor-force participation rose to 61.6%.
- Wage growth eased to 3.1% year over year.

MAPQUEST IS NO. 1 AGAIN
- MapQuest jumped from No. 128 to No. 1 in the U.S. App Store.
- The surge followed its decision to keep the Lake Ontario name.
- More than half of its 2026 U.S. downloads reportedly came in just a few days.
- Google Maps now shows “Lake America” for U.S. users.

AUSTRALIA JOINS THE BOND SELLOFF
- Australia’s 10-year government bond yield climbed above 5.1%, its highest since 2011.
- The three-year yield also jumped as traders priced more central-bank tightening.
- Australia joins the U.S., Japan, Germany and U.K. in the global yield surge.

DICK'S GETS HIT BY FOOTWEAR
- Dick’s shares fell more than 25% after earnings.
- Earnings, revenue and same-store sales missed expectations.
- Foot Locker also disappointed after the acquisition.
- Management cited heavier promotions, fewer product launches and discounting of older shoes.