DHUnplugged #816: Strikes, Spikes, Hikes

September – here we are and the volatility starts.

Bear Invasions – is this something we should pay attention to?

Target is in the hotseat, Good-Good too.

Bombing Iran again.

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LAKE AMERICA
- Google Maps now shows "Lake America" to U.S. users after the federal naming change.
- Canadian users still see "Lake Ontario"; users elsewhere see both names.
- Canada did not adopt the change, setting up an easy cross-border naming fight.

OIL / IRAN
- Last week - Oil dropped more than 3% as traders viewed tougher Iran sanctions as less disruptive than renewed military escalation.
- Brent fell to roughly $88.58 and WTI to about $82.36.
- Washington stopped short of immediately targeting major Chinese banks buying Iranian oil.
- Markets also reacted to hopes for improved navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.
----  OH WAIT>>>>

IRAN - FIGHT IS ON
- We are back bombing and they are retaliating
- We retaliate, they bomb
- Threat: President Trump in phone interview with Fox News reporter repeats that if Iran retaliates, they will be hit harder, but he adds that if Iran retaliates for a third time "they will be totally wiped out as a country"; says any deal with Iran will not be "worth the paper it is printed on"
- Oil Up ...

DICK'S / FOOT LOCKER
- Dick's shares plunged about 30% after earnings and guidance disappointed.
- Core Dick's comps rose 4.9%, but Foot Locker comps fell 3.6%.
- Management blamed weak sneaker launches, stale inventory and a highly promotional footwear market.
- Dick's has already taken more than $500 million in charges tied to the Foot Locker turnaround.

BASEBALL CARDS GO CASINO
- Online "repack" platforms let customers buy randomized graded cards and immediately sell them back.
- Prices can range from roughly $25 to thousands of dollars per pack.
- The model increasingly resembles gambling: randomized payoff, instant resale value and repeat play.
- Arena Club, Fanatics and others are pushing deeper into a market already generating billions in transactions.

GOVERNMENT-OWNED STOCKS
- Stocks with U.S. government backing face new legal and political risk around Washington taking equity stakes.
- Intel surged after government investment plans surfaced; MP Materials also jumped after a Pentagon stake.
- Trilogy Metals soared after a government deal, then gave back much of the move.
- A lawsuit challenging the Intel arrangement could have implications for similar federal equity deals.

CHINA INDUSTRIAL PROFITS
- China's industrial profits rose 11.2% year over year in July.
- Profit growth slowed from 15.1% in June but remained strong.
- Manufacturing profits rose nearly 19%, while mining profits jumped roughly 35%.
- Strong factory profits continue to contrast with weak property and domestic-demand signals.

DELL EARNINGS GUIDANCE
- Earnings we great - Guidance out of control
- Dell sees Q3 mid-point EPS of $6.50 vs $4.46 FactSet Consensus; sees mid-point of revs at $49.00 bln vs $41.36 bln FactSet Consensus
- Dell sees FY27 mid-point EPS of $25.50 vs $18.99 FactSet Consensus; sees revs mid-point of $192 bln vs $174.05 bln FactSet Consensus

TARGET HALLOWEEN BACKLASH
- Target pulled a children's clown costume after complaints that it resembled blackface imagery.
- The company apologized and said it was reviewing how the product cleared internal approval.
- The controversy adds another brand-management problem after several politically charged merchandise fights.

LEGO BOOM
- Lego first-half revenue jumped 21% to about $6.5 billion.
- Net profit rose 32%, while consumer sales increased 22%.
- More than 330 new products helped drive demand across Star Wars, Formula 1, Botanicals and other franchises.
- Lego continues gaining share while expanding stores and manufacturing capacity.

WAIT - WE'RE BOMBING IRAN AGAIN
- U.S. forces struck Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island near the Strait of Hormuz, the first U.S. attack on Iran in several weeks.
- Iran retaliated with missile attacks targeting U.S. bases in Jordan, restarting direct military exchanges.
- Oil jumped more than 2%; Brent moved back above $90 and WTI above $85.
- The Strait remains the key issue: roughly 20% of global oil shipments pass through it, so actual disruption to tanker traffic matters more than the headlines.

IRAN SANCTIONS
- Treasury warned countries doing business with Iran could face secondary sanctions and loss of access to the dollar system.
- Scott Bessent described the campaign as an "economic D-Day."
- Treasury sanctioned dozens of people, companies and vessels but initially avoided major Chinese financial institutions.
- The expanded sanctions reach oil, shipping, gold, aviation, technology and digital assets.

JOBS REPORT / FED TEST
- August payrolls hit Friday after July shocked with a 23,000 job decline.
- Expectations are for only modest job growth, making revisions and the unemployment rate especially important.
- Fed rate-hike odds jumped after Kevin Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole comments; a strong jobs number could push them higher.
- JOLTS, ADP and ISM data provide several previews before Friday.

 


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