DHUnplugged #697: YesNo Rate Cuts

A WINNER – CTP for Rumble

A new CTP to announce!

Club 72 Thank You

Solar Eclipse

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Warm Up
- A WINNER - CTP for Rumble
- A new CTP to announce!
- Club 72
- Solar Eclipse

Market Update
- Boeing issues continue
- Oil market on fire
- Yellen - talking tariffs again
- Kashkari and others on cuts
- Earnings season starts this week

Lucky CLUB 72
Jonathan Farris
Mark Studebaker
William Palmer
Susan Erickson
Terrence Cleary
Anonymous (2)

Fed Walking All Back
- Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari said on Thursday that at the U.S. central bank's meeting last month he penciled in two interest rate cuts this year but if inflation continues to stall, none may be required by year end.
- "If we continue to see inflation moving sideways, then that would make me question whether we need to do those rate cuts at all," Kashkari said during an interview with Pensions & Investments. "There's a lot of momentum in the economy right now."

Walking Forward
- Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said Friday that it's possible interest rates may have to move higher to control inflation, rather than the cuts her fellow officials have indicated are likely and that the market is expecting.
- "While it is not my baseline outlook, I continue to see the risk that at a future meeting we may need to increase the policy rate further should progress on inflation stall or even reverse,"

Who is the best?
-If you were wondering about the track record of the Fed Chair's performance over time, it's worth delving into the historical data.
- Overall, the track record of Fed Chairs over time reflects the challenges and complexities of managing monetary policy in a dynamic and ever-changing economic environment. Each Chair has faced unique circumstances and challenges during their tenure, and their actions have had far-reaching implications for financial markets and the economy as a whole.


- Hearing that the car business - used and new having one of the worst years on record (from selective car salespeople)
- Same as above on lower end boat business (sales)
- U.S. small-business confidence slipped to the lowest level in more than 11 years in March amid rising concerns about inflation, according to a survey on Tuesday.
- The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) said its Small Business Optimism Index fell 0.9 point to 88.5 last month, the lowest level since December 2012. It was the 27th straight month the index was below the 50-year average of 98.
- - Twenty-five percent of owners reported inflation was their single most important problem in operating their business, reflecting higher input and labor costs, up 2 points from February. The share of businesses raising average selling prices rose 7 points from the prior month.

Inflation Data and ECO
- CPI and PPI this week
- CPI expectations are 0.4% MoM for March
--- Many are sahing that this is a clean month without odd seasonal factors - so something to watch
- - 10 Yr at 4.378%
----------- FOMC minutes at 2:00 Wednesday
-- Last week - Employment situation continues to be strong - 3.8% Unemployment rate 300k added to payrolls (Wage growth was okay)

Earnings Season - Banks in Focus
- Banks are expected to see some decline in earnings over the period
- Focus on net interest margin as well as credit deterioration (and days outstanding)
- However, YoY - earnings growth for some look pretty good
- - - - Property & Casualty Insurance (87%), Reinsurance (62%), Life & Health Insurance (12%), and Multi-line Insurance (12%).

REMOTE WORK on the sea
- Virgin Voyages is targeting a new type of traveler: remote workers.
- In March, the Miami-based cruise line owned by Sir Richard Branson introduced a month-long cruise called the “Scarlet Summer Season Pass.” It’s essentially four week-long cruises packaged together to appeal to remote workers who want to spend a month at sea in southern Europe.
- Starlink WiFI included
-Europe and other locations
- $9,900 for 2 people!

DNUT Follow up
- Krispy Cream stock - we flagged something weird after big jump last week with McDonalds news (2026+ completion???)
- Stock moved up and now got shot down....

3PM Monday - Solar Eclipse
- Starting at 1Pm warnings that volume could dry up from 3PM - 4PM as eclipse is more interesting than trading stocks
- Volume did dry up a bit as most were out with their pinhole glasses

Back to this...
- U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Monday said she would not rule out any measures, including potential tariffs, on China's green energy exports.
- Yellen not too happy as China providing industry incentives to local companies
- WHY? Didn't we just pass a multi-billion dollar chips act?
- Don't we have tax incentives and other government handouts to companies?

- A Southwest Airlines flight had to make an emergency stop after an engine part fell off during takeoff from Denver International Airport on Sunday morning.
- The airline said that they lost "approximately $160 million" in their first quarter.
- Boeing pays Alaska Airlines $160 million in cash in 'initial payment' following mid-air blowout

Spirit Airlines
- Spirit Airlines said on Monday it has reached a deal with Airbus to delay all aircraft deliveries scheduled from the second quarter of 2025 through 2026 and intends to furlough about 260 pilots, as the U.S. carrier looks to save cash.
- The agreement with Airbus would improve Spirit's liquidity by about $340 million over the next two years, the carrier said, adding that there were no changes to its orders scheduled to be delivered during 2027-2029.

Oil Mexico
- Mexico's state energy company, Pemex, is planning to cut at least 330,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude exports in May, leaving customers in the United States, Europe and Asia with a third less supply, two sources said.
- As they require more domestically - Pemex has no option other than applying monthly cuts to exports after its crude production in February fell to the lowest level in 45 years and the country's refineries, including a new facility in the port of Dos Bocas, began taking in more crude oil.

- A ticket sold in Oregon has won Powerball jackpot of more than $1.3 billion, the eighth largest in U.S. history.
- Powerball drew the numbers early on Sunday and the winning numbers were white balls 22, 27, 44, 52, 69 and red Powerball 9. The drawing is the 41st since the last Powerball winner hit the jackpot on New Year's Day.
- The winner matched the correct six double-digit numbers on a $2 ticket. The chances of that happening are one in 292.2 million

EV Trends
- Hybrids are the thing
- Ford Motor is delaying production of a new all-electric three row vehicle, as it shifts to offer hybrid options across its entire North American lineup, the company said last Thursday.

Amazon - Just Walk Out: Cancelled
- Removing from its Fresh stores
- However, unbeknownst to many, the Just Walk Out technology was relying on more than 1000 workers in India who were watching the footage to ensure the checkouts were accurate. The Information alleges that over 70% of sales relied on these human video reviewers.
- WAIT - what?



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