DHUnplugged #540: StimulusMAX

Massive stimulus is on the way setting up for the roaring 20’s.

Earnings are out for the banks and some tech – winners and losers.

Last days for President Trump and a new team takes the field.

Fed Limericks are Back – PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!


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Earnings Season Begins
Last Days for President Trump
Massive Executive Orders Coming
Light Week for Eco – Holiday Shortened Trading Week
Markets Seem to want to go higher – but can’t
Major Averages down for last week….
NEW TEAM TAKES THE FIELD

Market Update
Same as before but different
Buy The Dip
Yellen ALL IN on StimulusMax (Stimulus+)
— Roaring 20’s?
Market Puzzle – Answered in One Chart
Earnings Season – Banks Drift

Stream and Chatroom
– We don’t mention this often enough – Live at 9PM Tuesdays with listener chatroom (dhunplugged.com)

Last Week – Earnings
– Citi, Wells and others
– Big takeaway is that they moved some of the loan loss reserves and therefore goosed income/balance sheets
– Headline beats, but stocks came in (down)

Netflix Earnings
– Netflix prelim Q4 revs $6.64 bln vs $6.62 bln S&P Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
– Netflix sees Q1 $2.97 vs $2.15 S&P Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; sees revs $7.13 bln vs $7.03 bln S&P Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
– Netflix guides to Q1 global streaming paid net adds +6.00
– Netflix op margin for Q4 14.4% vs 13.5% prior guidance
– No longer has need to raise external financing for day-to-day operations/considers share buybacks
– Stock up 13% A/H (biggest post earnings surge since 2Q/17

More Banks
– Goldman Sachs and Bank of America
— Good numbers again, but stocks trading sideways to down
— BIG numbers from deals an equity trading
— Goldman: ” Said progress on economic growth is contingent on an effective vaccine rollout program globally.”
—- “Although initial vaccine rollouts are beginning in the US, UK, and other nations, mgmt feels there remains significant uncertainty in the path forward related to virus resurgence.

Gamestop
– Stock is flying – SHORT SQUEEZE after recent update
–  Citron tweets “Tomorrow am at 11:30 EST Citron will livestream the 5 reasons GME buyers at these levels are the suckers at this poker game. Stock back to $20 fast. We understand short interest better than you and will explain. Thank you to viewers for pos feedback on last live tweet”  

GME Stock

One Chart that Explains it all…. But first –MASTERWORKS

Chart – US Personal Income – Explains It All….
– H/T Natixis

OMG Chart

Travel Bans and Un-Bans
– President Trump (Monday) lifts bans on travel in from Europe and Brazil effective Jan 26th – after winning support from coronavirus task force members and public health officials.
– 30 minutes later, U.S. President-elect Joe Biden plans to quickly extend travel restrictions barring travel by most people who have recently been in much of Europe and Brazil
– Was this just a stunt?

Catastrophic
– The head of the World Health Organization said Monday the equitable distribution of coronavirus vaccines is at “serious risk.”
– Warning of a “catastrophic moral failure,” WHO’s Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said “the recent emergence of rapidly-spreading variants makes the rapid and equitable rollout of vaccines all the more important.”
– But he added that this distribution could easily become “another brick in the wall for inequality between the world’s haves and have-nots.”
– Is WHO relevant any more?

More Vaccine News
– New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo asked Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla Monday for the ability to buy Covid-19 vaccine doses directly from the company.
— In his letter to Bourla, Cuomo suggested Pfizer should be able to sell directly to his state, bypassing federal agencies, since Pfizer is “not bound by commitments that Moderna made as part of Operation Warp Speed.”
– California’s state epidemiologist is urging a halt to more than 300,000 coronavirus vaccinations using a Moderna vaccine version because some people
received medical treatment for possible severe allergic reactions.

New Discussion – Perpetual?
– Gottlieb: “If we can’t get more protective immunity into the population, we could be facing a situation where we have, sort of, a perpetual infection heading into the spring and summer as these variants get a foothold here”

Family Conversation
– Text to my parents from family member
– “Please do not take the vaccine”
— “Bill Gates, who owns Pfizer, is putting chips in the vaccine and it will be a genocide~”
— “Don’t trust with the MSM is saying, they are lying, I know the truth”

China
– China’s economic recovery beat analyst expectations in the fourth quarter, expanding 6.5% from a year earlier, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Monday.
– The gross domestic product (GDP) growth was faster than the 6.1% forecast by economists in a Reuters poll, and followed 4.9% growth in the third quarter.
– However, retail sales slowed considerably

Discussion: BNPL
– Buy Now Pay Later – All the rage
– Concept : With Buy Now Pay Later, the consumer is able to increase their buying power AND decrease the chances of abandoning their shopping cart when it comes time to checkout
– For the growing group of BNPL companies, adding a no-cost payment option for customers is a key driver in market acquisition. The lending programs themselves are not credit card based, but installment micro loans at point-of-sale that do not require a hard credit check of the shopper.
– Paypal, Affirm and others….
– Impact on economy? Bad Debt?

Pelosi Computer
– U.S. law enforcement is investigating whether a woman took a laptop computer or hard drive from U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s office during the Jan. 6 siege of the Capitol and tried to sell the device to Russian intelligence, according to a court filing.
– An FBI agent disclosed the detail in an affidavit released on Sunday night that outlined a criminal case against Riley June Williams, a Pennsylvania woman accused of unlawfully breaching the Capitol building and directing people to Pelosi’s office.
– Was this the plan all along?

Venture Capital
– U.S. startups raised $130 billion last year, topping the prior high of $120 billion set back in the dotcom craze of 2000, per the MoneyTree report.

 


420 Stocks …

CLICK for list of “Pot Stocks”

Stocks to watch: CGC, STZ, TLRY, CRON, MJ, NBEV

 


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UPDATE – NEW ETF – Global X Millennials Thematic ETF Challenge!

The top holdings of Global X Millennials Thematic ETF (MILN) include stocks many investors would expect, such as Facebook, LinkedIn and Amazon, which take advantage of the tech tendencies of millennials. But some names might be more surprising like real estate investment trusts AvalonBay Communities and Equity Residential, and Home Depot, which could benefit from millennials moving out of the home of their parents.

We are creating the DH Old Codger Index Portfolio to compete against this new ETF to see how “old school” stocks do in comparison. Companies in our index will include: (updated names as of 8/29/16)

We have the performance summary running (daily and since inception of 5/6/16) – DHOCI vs. Millennials ETF Battle


Electoral College
– JCD Article

Fed Limericks

JCD?


See this week’s stock picks HERE


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