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Warm-Up
- Here we go again - Tariffs and retaliatory tariffs
- DAVOS - Elitists are Meeting
- Suicide Coaches?
- Hedge funds - finally a good year!

Markets
- Silver and Gold - ATH
- Selling off after Greenland threat
- Netflix - Saga continues

Davos - 2026
- Economic Confab that often brings out the elite (elitists)
- Many watch for their key points and do the opposite
- Trump going, Xi Jinping and Narendra Modi not
- Why is Zelensky going?
- Kushner, Bessent, Little Marco will be attending with Trump
- Did you know - Larry Fink is the interim Co-Chair.
- The CEOs that you would expect that love the limelight ) (Jensen, Nadella etc)

World Economic Forum Report (Davos)
- Due out Wednesday - expected to show that geopolitical confrontation is the top concern this year
- Rising Inflation
- Economic Downturn
- Asset Bubbles
- High debt burdens
- Any of those could be any year and anyone in the world that is breathing could have made that list

WEF List

NEXT
- Greenland - Sell or Else!
- Trump promises 100% that he will impose tariffs and follow through
- The tariffs will start at 10% on Feb. 1 and shoot up to 25% on June 1, Trump said.
- Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Finland
- Supposedly in response to EU allies moving troops into Greenland
- Greenland protests with - Make America Go Away hats
- 200% tariff threatened in champagne and wines (Mad at Macron)

Oh - and Gaza
- The new Board of Peace
- Trump names himself 'Board of Peace' chair under October plan
- Marco Rubio, special envoy Steve Witkoff, former British prime minister Tony Blair and Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner.
- Supposedly Putin has said he was also invited to be on the board.
- Purpose? Officially, the Board is mandated to “promote stability, restore dependable and lawful governance, and secure enduring peace in areas affected or threatened by conflict...

Saks - bankrupt
- Chapter 11
- Problems really got worse after they agreed to purchase Needless Markup (aka Neiman Marcus)
- Amazon filed an objection to Saks Global’s bankruptcy financing plan on the grounds it could harm creditors and push the tech company further down the repayment pecking order.
- Amazon The tech company invested $475 million into Saks’ acquisition of Neiman Marcus in December 2024,  a stake it said is now effectively “worthless.”
- Amazon threatened more “drastic remedies” if Saks doesn’t heed its concerns, including the appointment of an examiner or a trustee.
- Amazon initially invested because it thought Saks would start selling its products on Amazon’s website and the tech company would offer technology and logistics expertise.|
- Amazon's attorneys: “Saks continuously failed to meet its budgets, burned through hundreds of millions of dollars in less than a year, and ran up additional hundreds of millions of dollars in unpaid invoices owed to its retail partners.”

Suicide Coaches
- “This year, you really saw something pretty horrific, which is these AI models became suicide coaches,” Benioff told CNBC’s Sarah Eisen on Tuesday at the World Economic Forum’s flagship conference in Davos, Switzerland.
- In 2018, Benioff said social media should be treated like a health issue, and said the platforms should be regulated like cigarettes: “They’re addictive, they’re not good for you.”
- “Bad things were happening all over the world because social media was fully unregulated,” he said Tuesday, “and now you’re kind of seeing that play out again with artificial intelligence.”

China
- China 2025 new yuan loans 16.27 trln yuan, lowest since 2018
- Dec new yuan loans beat forecast
- PBOC announces targeted monetary policy easing
- "From the asset side, amid the property market adjustment, the private sector including households and firms showed insufficient willingness to add leverage, while government bond issuance was ramped up to stabilize leverage and the economy."
- Now what is happening is that $ that used to go into real estate is heading for stocks/risk assets.
- Chinese authorities tightened rules on margin financing, signaling unease over the pace of a rally.
- - Under the new rule, investors must now provide margin equal to the full value of the securities they buy on credit, up from the previous 80% threshold.
- - - Regulators made the move to rein in potential froth in financial markets, with a fund manager saying it sends a clear signal that they want a slow bull market, not an overheated one.
--- Under the new rule, investors must now provide margin equal to the full value of the securities they buy on credit, up from the previous 80% threshold, according to a Shenzhen Stock Exchange statement. The move, which applies to Shenzhen, Shanghai and Beijing bourses, underscores regulators’ efforts to rein in potential froth in financial markets.

More China
- China’s population of 1.4 billion continued to shrink, marking the fourth straight year of decrease, new government statistics show. The total population in 2025 stood at 1.404 billion, which was 3 million less than the previous year.
- After the one-child policy - now government is pushing or more births
- Measured another way, the birth rate in 2025 — 5.63 per 1,000 people — is the lowest on record since 1949
- Government tactics range from cash subsidies to taxing condoms to eliminating a tax on matchmakers and day care centers.

Bank Earnings
- Generally pretty good!
- Yield curve is helping in a big way - steepening
- Goldman beats, BAC beast Morgan Stanley bets etc. etc.
- Goldman: The company said profit jumped 12% from a year earlier to $4.62 billion, or $14.01 per share, on gains across its capital markets businesses.
- Morgan Stanley: Last Thursday reported fourth-quarter results that exceeded Wall Street expectations on the back of strong revenue from wealth management.

Fed Chair
- Over the weekend, Hassett thinks Trump is right not to have him in that position (What a sap! Good he is not in running anymore)
- Rick Reider and Warsh are front-runners
- Who ever kisses the most ass should win
- Warsh would actually be a good pick - experience and smart guy that is level headed
- Meanwhile - all of a sudden Trump says he is not looking to fire Powell (maybe h wants him to resign)

Netflix/Warner Brothers Update
- Netflix now plans to pay $27.75 per WBD share entirely in cash to acquire WBD’s streaming platform HBO Max and the Warner Bros. film studio.
- In reaction tot he hostile takeover bid from Paramount/Skydance
- The last offer was unanimously approved by the BOD
- NFLX Earnings .....
--- Earnings per share: 56 cents vs. 55 cents, estimated
------Revenue: $12.05 billion vs $11.97 billion, estimated
- Stock down AH

Inflation (Did we talk about this?)
- Even though we are told there is little inflation...
- Consumer Price Index increases 0.3% in December
- Food, rents were the main drivers of consumer inflation
- Underlying inflation rises a moderate 0.2%
- Food prices surged 0.7%

Planes!
- Boeing outsold Airbus last year
- First time since 2018
- BA stock made an ATH last week

Bond Vigilantes
- Danish pension operator AkademikerPension said it is exiting U.S. Treasurys over finance concerns tied to America’s budget shortfall.
- The move comes amid increasing tensions with the U.S. over Greenland as President Donald Trump pushes for control of the island.
- AkademikerPension said it plans to have closed its position of around $100 million in U.S. Treasurys by the end of the month.
- 10 YR yields moved up again to 4.3%
- What if.....??? (Mutual assured destruction?)

Hedgies
- Hedge fund investors posted gains of about 12.6% last year, the best returns since 2009, according to data compiled by Hedge Fund Research Inc.
- Funds run by industry giants such as D.E. Shaw & Co. and Millennium Management posted double-digit returns, with Bridgewater Associates' Pure Alpha II fund scoring a 34% gain.
- Hedge funds secured net inflows of $71 billion during the first three quarters of last year, a major reversal after a decade of outflows, with the industry's giants being among the major beneficiaries.

 

 

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