DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.

---

Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

---

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Warm-Up
- Labubus - Beanie Babies ?
- US Debt - wretched
- Good fishing this weekend
- Chip Trackers

Markets
- Bottom Fishing
- Consolidation, Digestion - waiting for the next catalyst
-  Saudi SWF takes a hit
- Validations - to the MOON
- Casual Dining take a hit

Weekend Fishing
- Marlin, Roosterfish and Yellowfin Tuna
- 2 bucket list items

The CONFAB
- August 21 to August 23
- Theme: Labor Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy
- Powell to speak Friday at 10am
- Historically:
---- 1989: Alan Greenspan became the first Fed Chair to formally participate in the program, establishing a tradition of Fed leadership using the event to signal policy direction (Volker stopped by in 1982)
--- 2010: Ben Bernanke used the symposium to signal QE2
--- 2014: Mario Draghi, ECB President, hinted at aggressive stimulus to combat Europe’s sluggish growth, influencing currency markets
--- 2020: Jerome Powell announced the Fed’s new “average inflation targeting” framework, allowing inflation to run above 2% temporarily to support employment growth

More Jackson Hole
- Many are saying this is the be the defining moment in Powell's Career
- Certainly the last one attending that he will be chair
- Odds are that he will look to continue the Fed independence and data dependency talk

US Debt
- The federal government's gross national debt topped $37 trillion for the first time in history last week, and the U.S. has room to add trillions of dollars more to the debt following the enactment of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA).
- OBBBA included a $5 trillion debt limit increase to avert a potential stand-off over the borrowing limit ($41 trillion limit)
- US Debt to GDP = 100%
- Every American owes $111,045 (Assuming spread evenly)
- 25 years ago it was $19,000 er person

LabooooBooo
- Labubus, the quirky monster plush dolls made by Pop Mart, have exploded into a global phenomenon, doubling as collectibles and fashion accessories for adults.
- In the first half of 2025, Labubu-related products generated a staggering $418 million in global sales for Pop Mart, with nearly 40% of revenue last year coming from outside mainland China. The company says sales in the first six months of this year are on track to more than triple, fueled by what’s become a full-blown international craze.
- The thrill of the hunt. Labubus are only available through online purchases and in-store pickups, if you can find one in stock. Adding to the scarcity factor is the blind-box packaging – you never know which character you’ll get.
- Some collectors chase elusive "secret" editions, with odds as low as 1 in 72.

Investing - A better Way?
- Powerball jackpot grows to estimated $643 million after no one won Monday night's drawing
- Next drawing - Wednesday night
- The jackpot is a new high for 2025
- he highest Powerball jackpot ever was $2.04 billion, won on November 7, 2022 by a single ticket sold in California.
- The winner, Edwin Castro, opted for the lump sum payout of $997.6 million

Energy Needed
- Google and Kairos Power will deploy an advanced nuclear reactor to help power the tech company’s data centers on the Tennessee Valley Authority grid.
- The Hermes 2 reactor developed by Kairos will dispatch 50 megawatts of electricity, enough to power about 36,000 homes.
- TVA will purchase the electricity from the reactor, making it the first utility in the U.S. to sign an offtake agreement with an advanced nuclear plant.
- Google, Kairos and TVA said their collaboration will move the U.S. a step closer to deploying advanced nuclear reactors by making sure consumers are not on the hook for the cost of building the plant.
- In other words, public-private and private industry is footing the bill for their own utility infrastructure build out.

Chip Trackers
- U.S. authorities have secretly placed location tracking devices in targeted shipments of advanced chips they see as being at high risk of illegal diversion to China, according to two people with direct knowledge of the previously unreported law enforcement tactic.
- The measures aim to detect AI chips being diverted to destinations which are under U.S. export restrictions, and apply only to select shipments under investigation, the people said.
- None of this is really supposed to be know and if it was - to what extent?

Management called for 97 cents to 99 cents in fiscal first-quarter adjusted earnings per share on $14.65 billion to $14.85 billion in revenue
_ Cisco reported results on Wednesday that narrowly exceeded analysts’ expectations and issued quarterly guidance that was also better than expected.
- Earnings per share: 99 cents adjusted vs. 98 cents expected
- Revenue: $14.67 billion vs. $14.62 billion expected
- Management called for 97 cents to 99 cents in fiscal first-quarter adjusted earnings per share on $14.65 billion to $14.85 billion in revenue

Bottom Fishing
- Lots of news...... Intel and UNH
- UnitedHealth shares soared after Warren Buffett (Berkshire) revealed a stake of 5 million shares, worth about $1.6 billion, in the troubled health insurer.
- The “Big Short” investor Michael Burry and Appaloosa Management’s David Tepper also disclosed sizable stakes in the company.
- The health-care stock ended the day up 12%, its best daily performance since March 2020
- Vote of confidence  - Stock has some backers- more may come to the rescue as they accumulate shares (first accumulate, then disclose)

More Bottom Fishing?
- Let's get busy!
- First the US government teases abut taking a 10% stake - not sure how...
- Now Softbank initiates a $2 billion investment
- SoftBank not seeking board seat or committing to buy Intel chips- this was a capital infusion
- - Most analysts see this nothing more that Masayoshi Son trying to keep good relations with President Trump

Saudi SWF
- 8% writedown is on a decline in investments on GigaProjects (New cities, Entertainment Complex, Heritage preservation, Urban parks, Urban redevelopment)
- The PIF’s assets under management climbed 19% from the end of 2023 to $913 billion, making it one of the largest and fastest-growing sovereign wealth funds on the planet. (The investment portion of the fund)
- No Wonder there is so much money flowing into stocks over the past year - AND this is just one SWF

Valuation Evaluation 
- Open AI - OpenAI is preparing to sell around $6 billion in stock as part of a secondary sale that would value the company at roughly $500 billion, CNBC confirmed Friday.
- Company is is preparing to sell around $6 billion in stock as part of a secondary sale that would value the company at roughly $500 billion, CNBC confirmed Friday.

Japan Economy
- Japan’s economy expanded 0.3% in the second quarter of 2025 from the previous first three months, outpacing forecasts despite tariff headwinds out of the United States.
- Last quarter there was a contraction - so no recession
- The GDP beat was mainly attributed to resilience in exports, which added 0.3 percentage points to GDP growth, compared to the 0.8% contraction in the first quarter of the year.

Predicti0ns and Observations
- David Rosenberg - "Guess what the biggest driver of this stock market rally has been? Leverage. For the first time ever, margin debt has topped $1 trillion and has ballooned +25% over the past year. Fully one-fifth of all the leverage supporting the stock market has been built up just in the past year alone; almost half of the outstanding margin debt has come in the past five years alone."
- M2 (money supply) has also increase dramatically

Fast Casual
- Cava, Chipotle and other fast-casual restaurant chains are finally hit by consumer slowdown
- Cava stock tumbled 16% in afternoon trading on Wednesday, making it the latest fast-casual chain to feel Wall Street’s wrath after reporting disappointing quarterly sales.
- So far in 2025, Shake Shack shares have fallen 16%; Chipotle stock has slid 28%; Cava shares have tumbled 37%; and Sweetgreen stock has plunged 70%
- Wingstop has managed to stay in the green this year, with gains of 20%.

Extortion Anyone?
- US Government now wants equity from Intel as a part of the money provided in CHIPS act
- 10% for $10b grant
- How is this rewritten after the fact? The idea was to create obs and manufacturing in return for these grants
- Mentioned that they will extend to other CHIPS Act recipients as well

 

---

 

 

 

---

Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

Closest to The Pin for Proctor & Gamble (PG)

 

Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt!

 

---

FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS