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Warm-Up
- Good overall earnings season - still going strong
- Economic reports show a mixed picture - but still good enough
- Semi-annual earnings report option gaining steam
- Saying goodbye to Spirit Airlines
- EGGS - Breaking News!

Markets
- Are markets riding tariff refund wave?
- Oil shoots up then slips back after Iran tensions rise and fall
- New Highs - NAZ100 powering ahead
- Huge Capex and OBBBA

NEED A NEW CTP
- CMG (last time was 2017)

Ship Sailing
- Seems that under the protection of the USA - a Maersk ship passed through the Strait
- But how many can they do a day like this?
- Oil down after a huge spike yesterday due to IRAN striking UAE

Big Shakeup
- US transportation stocks plunged after Amazon announced expanded logistics offerings that will turn it into a major competitor for parcel carriers and air freight companies.
- The move is a threat not just to other couriers' grasp on e-commerce, but potentially to more profitable areas such as healthcare, which UPS and FedEx have made a central part of their strategies.
- Amazon will offer freight, distribution and fulfillment, and parcel shipping to standalone customers, and its announcement "could be a watershed moment for North American freight transportation companies," according to Morgan Stanley analyst Ravi Shanker.
- FedEx Corp. shares fell 9.1% in their worst day in more than a year, while rival United Parcel Service Inc. dropped more than 10%.
-- Logistics firms Forward Air Corp. and GXO Logistics Inc. suffered double-digit declines. Old Dominion Freight Line Inc., among other truckers, slid almost 7%.
--- FYI - Did you know... last year there was a total of 23.9 BILLION packages shipped in the US. 25% was delivered by Amazon, Fed and UPS delivered a third.

Off the Hook - Chump Change
- Elon Musk agreed to pay $1.5 million to settle Securities and Exchange Commission allegations that he cheated Twitter shareholders by failing to properly disclose his growing stake in the social media company.
- An Elon Musk revocable trust would pay the penalty to end the SEC’s lawsuit, which is still subject to court approval, and Musk didn’t admit to the regulator’s allegations.
- The SEC said the deal would be the largest penalty the agency has levied against an entity or individual for allegedly failing to file a beneficial ownership report on time, but Musk’s attorney called it a “small fine”.
- Musk didn’t admit to the regulator’s allegations, according to a filing on Monday.

This could be something...
- Sonos Inc. shares climbed after reporting revenue that jumped 8% and said that it is filing for tariff refunds totaling $40 million.
- The company reported second quarter revenue of $282 million, up 8% year over year, and strong growth in international markets.
- Sonos is forecasting adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization between $20 million and $48 million for the current quarter
- Are markets riding higher also on the tariff refunds?
---- The US government is paying back up to $166 billion in revenue it collected through sweeping global tariffs that were struck down by the Supreme Court in February, with the first payments set to go out on May 11.

AND
- General Motors raised its 2026 guidance after significantly beating Wall Street’s first-quarter earnings expectations following a roughly $500 million benefit from the U.S. Supreme Court decision to terminate and refund certain levies AKA - tariffs.

OPEC?
- In an unexpected announcement - The United Arab Emirates will exit OPEC on May 1, in a major blow to the cartel that coordinates production among many of the world’s largest oil producers, particularly those in the Middle East.
- OPEC+ to raise June output quotas by 188,000 bpd
- Most members cannot meet targets due to Hormuz closure
- Quota increase removes UAE share after it left OPEC+ and OPEC (so just a make-up)
- Meanwhile, they cannot meet the iutput as no place to put the oil....
--- This all looks and sounds good but there is no substance.
---- Saudi Arabia produces 10 million barrels a day (Biggest in OPEC). USA produces 13 Million ....

Spirit Airlines
- Goodbye - shutdown Saturday night at 3PM
- The administration had floated a last-ditch bailout that would have given the federal government a controlling stake in the airline, but the proposal stalled amid resistance from key creditors, whose approval would have been required for the deal to go through.
- Meanwhile, most ticket holders will get refunds.
--- Already Jetblue and others are looking to fill the void by offering more flights from airports that Spirit serviced.
-- Takes a low cost alternative off the market and potentially will be a negative for consumers - less competition - WHICH IS EXACTLY WHAT BIDEN ADMINISTRATION DID NOT WANT BY BLOCKING JETBLUE MERGER

JC - are you listening??
- Duolingo beats Q1 revenue estimates, driven by 21% growth in paid subscribers
- CFO Gillian Munson says investments target long-term user retention
- Duolingo aims for 100 million daily active users by 2028
- Guided a bit lower and a strategy shift toward prioritizing user experience and long-term retention over near-term monetization, as it invests in product quality and engagement to build a larger base of paying subscribers. (DUMB?)
- Share down 8%

CHIPS
- Samsung Electronics reported an over eightfold increase in first-quarter operating profits on Thursday, hitting a new record and beating analysts’ estimates on the explosive growth of its chip business.
-  Revenue: 133.9 trillion Korean won ($89.96 billion) vs. 132.69 trillion won expected
- Operating profit: 57.2 trillion won vs. 55.28 trillion won expected
- The South Korean technology giant’s quarterly profit climbed more than 750% from a year earlier to a fresh record.
- The company also posted record revenue, up about 70% year over year.

AMD Reports
Conf Call: AMD paired strong current-quarter execution with a more ambitious long-term AI and server CPU outlook. The biggest positives were the stronger EPYC trajectory, rising confidence in MI450/Helios demand, and the upgraded server CPU TAM view.
- The company now sees the server CPU TAM growing more than 35% annually to over $120 billion by 2030, up from its prior long-term view.
- The main caution points were second-half PC and Gaming demand pressure from higher memory and component costs.
- Margins 55%
- Stock up 15% AH

Apple Chips Deal?
- Apple Inc. has held exploratory discussions with Intel Corp. and Samsung Electronics Co. about producing main processors for its devices in the US, as a secondary option beyond Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.
- The discussions with Intel and Samsung are preliminary and have not resulted in any orders, with Apple having concerns about using non-TSMC technology.
- Apple is considering additional suppliers due to supply-chain disruptions, including recent shortages driven by the build-out of AI data centers and higher demand for Macs, with CEO Tim Cook saying the company has less flexibility in the supply chain than normal.
- Discussions - yet Intel up 14% on the  news (after a 100% run in April)

Flashback - 2 weeks
- Remember when OpenAi came out with some news that they missed revenue and user growth goals?
- Took down tech for a day a couple of weeks ago....

Tech earnings
- Overall tech earnings were solid.
- Bbig takeaway is that the group (MAG7) are still spending a buttload on expansion into AI etc. Capex $$$$
- Meta was hit on theor outlook (which is why they came back and announced further layoffs)

AI Layoffs
- Recall - "AI will not take jobs"
- More announced this week - Coinbase today
- How long until the robots take over?
- Recent Announcements

AI Job Cuts

EGGS
- Consumption of eggs is associated with a lower risk of being diagnosed with Alzheimer's Disease for those 65 years and older, according to researchers at Loma Linda University Health
- Eating one egg per day for at least five days a week reduces risk of Alzheimer’s by up to 27%, researchers found.
--- More: Eggs are known to be a source of key nutrients that support brain health. Sabaté said. Eggs provide choline, a precursor to acetylcholine and phosphatidylcholine, both of which are critical for memory and synaptic function, the study stated. Eggs also contain lutein and zeaxanthin—carotenoids that accumulate in brain tissue and are associated with improved cognitive performance and reduced oxidative stress. Eggs also contain key omega-3 fatty acids, and yolks are particularly rich in phospholipids, which constitute nearly 30% of total egg lipids and are essential for neurotransmitter receptor function.

LIV Losing Saudi Arabia
- LIV Golf will lose its financial backing from Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund after the 2026 season, the fund announced Thursday.
- "PIF has made the decision to fund LIV Golf only for the remainder of the 2026 season," a representative for the PIF, Saudi Arabia's sovereign wealth fund chaired by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, told ABC News on Thursday.
- "The substantial investment required by LIV Golf over a longer term is no longer consistent with the current phase of PIF's investment strategy," the statement continued. "This decision has been made in light of PIF's investment priorities and current macro dynamics.
- Looking for Private Equity to step in

Cars
- The Beijing Auto Show that opened to the public this week is a showcase for how hypercompetition in China has driven new car prices in the world's largest car market to ?a fraction of the level of the next-largest market, the U.S.
- In China, there are more than 200 battery-powered models, including hybrids, for sale at less than the equivalent of $25,000, according to DCar, an information and trading platform.
- Plenty at the $10k - $12k level

Death Squads
- Friday, The White house announced plans to add firing squads, electrocution and gas asphyxiation as alternative methods of executing people convicted of the gravest federal crimes
- Only THREE federal executions in the last 50 years

Weekly Picks Ideas

Worst Stocks this Year

Worst Stocks

 

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