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Warm-Up
- What we learned from Davos
- President Miyagi - tariffs on, tariffs off
- January: stocks are trying to finish with gains - Small-caps flying
- S&P  500: All-time highs going into earnings

Markets
- Silver and Gold - Still Going
- Big week for earnings
- Fed decision on Wednesday
- Nat Gas price exploding
- US Dollar drops hard over past few days

Can't Keep Track Anymore
-Trump has announced he is raising tariffs on South Korean imports to 25% after accusing Seoul of "not living up" to a trade deal reached last year.
- In a post on social media, Trump said he would increase levies on South Korea from 15% across a range of products including automobiles, lumber, pharmaceuticals and "all other Reciprocal TARIFFS".
- South Korea is planning on voting on the "agreement" with the US in February
- KOSPI hits all-time high after being down 1% on the news
- S. Korea President re-affirms their commitments

Davos - 2026 - What we learned
- Not much
- Same bifurcated view of the world
- Trump backed off the Greenland threats - Framework of a "deal" / "plan"
- So, no tariffs
- (Going to get a boy who cried wolf ....)

Gold and Silver
- Off to the races
- Silver was up again in a big way Monday. Fell back down to earth (up 5% from up 15% earlier in the day
- Hovering around $110 - that is impressive - parabolic move
- GOLD! - Proving itself as a USD hedge and safety trade (Bitcoin in the dust)
- Gold above $5,000 per ounce
- - Plenty of reports that central banks are buying up|
- USD weakness

Economy - Still Strong
- The US economy expanded in the third quarter by slightly more than initially reported, supported by stronger exports and a smaller drag from inventories.
- Inflation-adjusted gross domestic product increased at a revised 4.4% annualized rate, the fastest in two years, according to Bureau of Economic Analysis data.
- Consumer spending advanced at a 3.5% annualized pace last quarter, reflecting the fastest pace of outlays for services in three years, while spending on goods also accelerated from the previous quarter.

Amazon
- Trimming.... 30,000 jobs is plan
- First half of that was in October and now trhery are laying off the remainder
- CEO Jassey says that it is not financial of AI issues
---- Again - why so important to state that and make that a focal point?
- Layoffs amount to 10% of the corporate workforce
- Company still has 1.5 million employees

Comeback?
- Spirit Airlines is in talks with investment firm Castlelake for a potential takeover of the discount airline, CNBC has learned.
- Remember, all started when Jetblue deal was blocked
- Frontier tried
- Spirit tried a few times to get head above water - nothing worked

Booz Cancelled
- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent canceled department contracts with the consulting firm Booz Allen Hamilton, whose employee leaked President Donald Trump’s tax records to The New York Times.
- The department noted that between 2018 and 2020, Booz Allen employee Charles Edward Littlejohn “stole and leaked the confidential tax returns and return information of hundreds of thousands of taxpayers.”
- Booz Allen Hamilton’s stock price dropped by more than 10% on the heels of the Treasury Department’s announcement.
- Why does Booz have tax records in the first place?
- Stock down 50% since end of 2024

Private Credit
- BlackRock TCP Capital shares lower by 13% after it disclosed Friday night that net asset value declined approximately 19.0%; other private credit stocks falling in sympathy
- The Company's net asset value per share as of December 31, 2025 to be between approximately $7.05 and $7.09, an anticipated decline of approximately 19.0% during the quarter ended December 31, 2025, compared to a net asset value per share of $8.71 as of September 30, 2025.
- This decline is primarily driven by issuer-specific developments during the quarter.
- The Company's net investment income per share to be between approximately $0.24 and $0.26 for the three months ended December 31, 2025.
- Decliners: TCPC -13.40% OWL -3.07% ARES -3.30% KKR -2.08% BAM -0.41% CG -0.33%

Zoom Communications
- Valuation of Anthropic stake
- The news is driving shares higher as analysts suggest ZM's $51 mln stake could now be worth between $2-$4 bln based on Anthropic's rumored $350 bln valuation, effectively acting as a "hidden gem" on its balance sheet.
- From a fundamental perspective, the company's performance has also significantly improved, evidenced by its Q3 beat-and-raise report in late November where revenue rose 4.4% yr/yr to $1.23 bln.
- This stronger financial performance is being driven by robust growth in the Enterprise segment, the rapid adoption of AI Companion features, and the scaling of adjacent growth businesses like Zoom Contact Center and Workvivo.
- Consequently, the combination of high-margin operational rigor -- highlighted by a 41.2% non-GAAP operating margin -- and the massive unrealized gains from its AI investments has shifted investor sentiment firmly back toward growth.

UNH and Health Stocks
- DOWN 20% today
- The administration's proposal (via the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, or CMS) for Medicare Advantage reimbursement rates to rise by only 0.09% in 2027. This was far below Wall Street expectations of 4-6% (or higher), following a more generous ~5% increase for 2026.
- The near-flat rate aims to improve payment accuracy, curb overbilling practices, and protect taxpayers, according to CMS statements, but it sparked widespread concerns about squeezed insurer margins, potential benefit cuts for seniors, reduced plan offerings, or market exits.
- UnitedHealth has significant exposure to Medicare Advantage (roughly 30% of national enrollment), making it particularly vulnerable. The proposal, announced late Monday (January 26), led to a broader sell-off in health insurers:
- - Humana (HUM) plunged over 20-21%.
- - CVS Health (CVS) and Elevance Health (ELV) each dropped around 13-14%.

Tech Earnings

Microsoft (MSFT)
Reports: Wednesday, January 28 (After Market Close)
- Wall Street Expectations:  Earnings per share (EPS): about $3.86 and Revenue: about $80 billion
- Growth: high teens year over year revenue growth
- Investors are focused on Azure and broader cloud growth, particularly how much of that growth is coming from AI related demand. Microsoft has built a reputation for consistent execution, which also means expectations are high. The critical issues will be cloud growth sustainability, margin stability, and how aggressively management plans to keep spending on AI infrastructure.

Meta Platforms (META)
Reports: Wednesday, January 28 (After Market Close)
- Wall Street Expectations:  EPS: about $8.15–$8.20 and Revenue: about $58–$59 billion
- Growth: roughly 20–21% year over year revenue growth
- Advertising remains the core driver, with AI driven ad targeting continuing to improve returns for advertisers. While topline growth expectations remain strong, investors are closely watching expense growth. The biggest question is whether rising AI and infrastructure spending can be managed without eroding margins or spooking investors, as Meta works through the next phase of its AI strategy.

Tesla (TSLA)
Reports: Wednesday, January 28 (After Market Close)
- Wall Street Expectations:  EPS (non GAAP): about $0.40–$0.45 and Revenue: about $24.5–$25 billion
- Trend: earnings expected to be sharply lower than a year ago
- Tesla enters earnings with the weakest expectations among the major tech names this week. Vehicle deliveries declined year over year, and automotive margins remain under pressure. While the energy and services segments continue to grow, they are not yet large enough to offset slowing EV demand.
- Investors will be far more focused on forward guidance than on the quarter itself—particularly updates on Full Self Driving, robotaxis, and the broader AI roadmap.

Apple (AAPL)
Reports: Thursday, January 29 (After Market Close)
Wall Street Expectations -  EPS: about $2.65–$2.67 and Revenue: about $138 billion
Growth: approximately 11–12% year over year revenue growth
- This is Apple’s most important quarter of the year. Expectations call for record revenue driven by the iPhone 17 cycle and continued Services growth. The focus will be on margins, China demand, and forward guidance—particularly how higher costs (memory prices and tariffs) may impact profitability.
Apple typically beats expectations, but the stock reaction will hinge on what management says about growth beyond this quarter.

Company	Ticker	Report Date	Est. EPS	Key Focus Area
Microsoft	MSFT	Wed, Jan 28 (AMC)	$3.92	Azure AI revenue growth & CapEx spending
Meta Platforms	META	Wed, Jan 28 (AMC)	$8.17	Ad monetization of AI & 2026 CapEx guidance
Tesla	TSLA	Wed, Jan 28 (AMC)	$0.45	Full Self-Driving (FSD) & Robotaxi updates
Apple	AAPL	Thu, Jan 29 (AMC)	Varies	iPhone 17 demand & Apple Intelligence rollout
ServiceNow	NOW	Wed, Jan 28 (AMC)	$0.88	Enterprise AI software adoption rates
IBM	IBM	Wed, Jan 28 (AMC)	$4.28	Hybrid cloud and watsonx performance

*AMC = After Market Close; EPS = Earnings Per Share (Consensus Estimates)

Boeing
- The company’s airplane deliveries last year were the highest since 2018, helping drive revenue. Boeing brought in $23.9 billion in the last three months of 2025, a 57% increase over the same period in 2024 and topping analysts’ expectations. Cash flow of $400 million was roughly double what Wall Street was expecting.
- Boeing brought in $23.9 billion in the last three months of 2025, a 57% increase over the same period in 2024.
The airplane manufacturer delivered 600 airplanes last year, up from 348 a year earlier.

Another MoonShot
- U.S. natural gas prices surged over 17% on Monday morning, climbing above $6 for the first time since late 2022.
- It comes as Winter Storm Fern leaves hundreds of thousands without power and forces mass flight cancellations.
- The National Weather Service has forecast wind chills as low as -50 degrees Fahrenheit (-45.56 degrees Celsius) across the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. this week.
-Up 68% YTD
- Nat gas is used in a whole lot of things - electrical grid 43% is fueled by Nat Gas

Government - Not Again!
- Seems like Dems are threatening a shutdown again
- A partial U.S. government shutdown is set to begin on Friday, January 30, 2026.
- The Senate is expected to vote on a funding package to avert this shutdown, with delays from a winter storm pushing initial votes to at least January 27, 2026
- The issue is being exacerbated with the ICE / Minnesota issues

This is precious
- Ex-finance minister Noda currently co-heads largest opposition party
- He says that Japan unlikely to get international consent for intervention
- Yen, bond selloff requires Japan to be in crisis mode, he says
- Government must vow to restore fiscal discipline to end yen fall, Noda says
- Japan must create environment allowing for steady BOJ rate hikes, he says
- THIS shows us all that the whole thing with these guys/gals is all political.
- NEVER EVER if he was in the role would he say anything like this.

 

 

 

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