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Warm-Up
- Announcing the participants for the CTP Cup 2025 (2)
- Lots of execs moving around all of a sudden
- Chocolate Craze

Markets
- NVDA gets the greenlight
- Waiting for the ECO
- ALL eyes...... Wednesday at 2pm
- Oil Dropping - Gas Prices Dropping slightly
- Just saw $2.59 for regular unleaded down here
- Double edged sword - oil prices dropping is sign of eco slowdown... Nothing to be excited about just yet....

Inflation
- PCE comes in a little lighter than expected
- However, let us be clear that inflation is not lower and prices grossly above where we were a couple of years ago
- Inflation still running at around 3% overall
- Fed set to greenlight the rate cut

Oil and Gas
- Oil has been dropping - reports that use will slow over the next year
- Gas Prices Dropping slightly
- Just saw $2.59 for regular unleaded down here
- Double edged sword - oil prices dropping is sign of eco slowdown... Nothing to be excited about just yet....

Jobs
- Reports show that U.S. employers have announced over 1.1 million job cuts in 2025 (as of early December), marking the highest level since the pandemic's start in 2020.
- This has been driven by tech integration (AI), economic shifts, and soft consumer spending, with sectors like government, tech, retail, and warehousing leading.

Greenlight - No security problems here
- Seeking a compromise over controlling exports to China, the US Department of Commerce will soon allow the export of powerful Nvidia GPUs that are roughly 18 months behind its most advanced offerings, according to a person with knowledge of the plan.
- The move, which would send Nvidia H200s to China, seeks to find a middle ground between those who oppose exports of any advanced AI chips and those who worry that restrictions will merely hand the market to Chinese competitors.
- It also aims to satisfy the Chinese government, which has blocked imports of less powerful chips, such as Nvidia’s H20.
- This can be gamed .....
- OHHHH - and USA to get 25% of the sales ????

China Not With Program
- China is buying soybeans again, but short of President Trump's target, according to CNBC
- Really think this is a big game and will not resolve anytime soon
- China still holds the cards

ECO Data Starting to Flow Again
- BLS to publish October PPI data with the November PPI news release on January 14, 2026
- Unemployment report released Dec 16th
- This week is a little slow but next week (Dec 15-19) kick it up hard
- - - Dec 19 Income and Spending , PCE report, Housing starts, Retail Sales, CPI (Nov), Leading Indicators, Philly Fed, UMich Sentiment

Apple Turnover
- Not the pastry
- In just the past week, Apple’s heads of artificial intelligence and interface design stepped down.
- Then the company announced that its general counsel and head of governmental affairs were leaving as well.
- All four executives have reported directly to Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook

Berkshire Too
- Todd Combs, one of Warren Buffett's investing lieutenants and the CEO of GEICO, is departing Berkshire Hathaway and joining JPMorgan Chase in a new role as part of a major shake-up involving both firms.
- Combs is leaving Berkshire Hathaway and his role leading GEICO to run the bank's new investment group as part of its wider "security and resilience" initiative announced in October.

AI Frames
- Warby Parker and Google announced that the first lightweight, AI glasses developed through their partnership are expected to launch in 2026
- What will be different about these? All others have seemed to failed miserably.

Mergers - Maybe
- Netflix announced Friday it’s reached a deal to buy pieces of Warner Bros. Discovery, bringing a swift end to a dramatic bidding process that saw Paramount Skydance and Comcast also vying for the legacy assets.
- The transaction is comprised of cash and stock and is valued at $27.75 per WBD share
- Others are offering $30 CASH per share
- President Trump has put in his comments that he thinks it may be a tough one to clear
- $2.8B breakup fee if Warner Brothers pulls out and $5.8B reverse break up fee if the deal is not approved.

Oracle Earnings
- Wednesday after the bell
- This is the poster child for the vendor and circular financing
- Stock was the darling for a minute a few months ago
- Written: "The stock has fallen roughly 32-40% from its September 10 peak, erasing its "Nvidia moment" rally and turning Oracle into the primary vehicle for expressing skepticism about the AI build-out and OpenAI's economics." - Briefing analyst

Forgot this...
- What happened to the Tik Tok deal and the China bad discussion?
--- History....
- Negotiations happened between ByteDance, Oracle, and Walmart back in 2020, and later discussions continued under “Project Texas” for U.S. data security.
- The proposed structure (Oracle as tech partner, U.S. investors taking a stake) was announced but never finalized into a binding acquisition or spin-off.
- Instead, TikTok remained under ByteDance ownership, while implementing U.S. data storage and security measures through Oracle.
- The U.S. government extended deadlines multiple times, but no sale or transfer of ownership occurred.
- China wins again! So much winning!

Private Credit 
- Private markets investing startup Yieldstreet, now calling itself Willow Wealth, recently informed customers of new defaults on real estate projects in Houston and Nashville, Tennessee.
The letters, obtained and verified by CNBC, account for about $41 million in new losses.
- They come on the heels of $89 million in marine loan wipeouts disclosed in September and $78 million in losses previously reported by CNBC.
- Willow Wealth also removed a decade of historical performance data from public view in recent weeks.
- Total losses? $208 million

Pistachios - Dubai Craze
- Milk chocolate shell filled with:
- Pistachio cream (often blended with tahini for a nutty, slightly savory note)
- Kadayif (shredded phyllo pastry) for crunch
- Created in 2021, went viral in 2023 via the SOCH
-  United States, Iran, and Turkey the biggest producers of pistachios
- Argentina betting on it to continue  - adding to their farmland to cover the demand
- Dubai Chocolate Bar (the viral pistachio-knafeh chocolate) generated over $50–$60 million in global sales for the year.

IndiGo
- In November, new Flight Duty Time Limitation (FDTL) rules increased pilot rest periods.
- IndiGo failed to adjust crew rosters, causing a severe pilot shortage during peak travel season.
- 1000s of flights cancelled
- IndiGo apologized and implemented measures like processing refunds, arranging transport/hotels for stranded passengers, and strengthening customer support.
- As of this week - still having major problems - stock don 20% from its high on this news (not traded in USA)

Grok Report
- Using Grok as Copilot is getting a little weird....ChatGPT a little slow
- Photo to video clip - pretty cool
- Image generation - FAST!
- Can have full on conversations and even companions.....(?)
- More racy than other Ai (as is to be expected) Age 18+  options
- Interesting nd impressive thus far.

OMG  - Brown Nosing
- Stellantis said it will bring an all-electric small “car” called the Fiat Topolino to the U.S.
- The Topolino is actually categorized as “an all-electric quadricycle” rather than a car, according to Stellantis and has a top speed of roughly 28 miles per hour.
- Fiat’s announcement comes less than a week after President Donald Trump praised small “Kei” cars from Japan and expressed interest in bringing tiny cars to the U.S.

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CTP CUP 2025 Participants:

Jim Beaver
Mike Kazmierczak
Joe Metzger
Ken Degel
David Martin
Dean Wormell
Neil Larion
Mary Lou Schwarzer

Eric Harvey (2024 Winner)

 

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