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Warm-Up
- AI - the promise and the theft
- Need a new CTP stock!
- Most hated stocks - more hate
- Football Season !!!!!!!!!

Markets
- ATH - Fed cut, AI earnings, buybacks... (Sentiment)
- NVDA under China's microscope
- Cash on the sidelines.... (that reason coming back)
- StubHub IPO coming (thieves, but make $ for company)

Once again
- House to put forth stopgap bill that would fund government through November 21; vote expected Friday

CPI and Jobs
- The consumer price index posted a seasonally adjusted 0.4% increase for the month, the biggest gain since January, putting the annual inflation rate at 2.9%.
---For the vital core reading that excludes food and energy, the August gain was 0.3%, putting the 12-month figure at 3.1%, both as forecast. Fed officials consider core to be a better gauge of long-run trends. The central bank’s inflation target is 2%.
- The Labor Department reported a surprise increase in weekly unemployment compensation filings to a seasonally adjusted 263,000, the highest since October 2021.
- The reports provide the final pieces of a complicated data puzzle that central bankers will review at their two-day policy meeting that concludes Sept. 17.

Retail Sales
- Can't count out the US Consumer - THEY CONSUME
- Retail sales increase 0.6% in August, beating expectations
- Core retail sales rise 0.7%; July gain unrevised at 0.5%
- Higher prices account for some of the rise in sales, but consumers also showing resilience
- Import prices increase 0.3% amid strong gains in capital, consumer goods

Fed Day 
- Odds are 100% for 0.25 cut and 3.9% for a 0.50% cut
- Lots of talk about 3 cuts for 2025 (Sept, Oct, December)
- Gold hitting new highs, silver up there (Schiff on TDI Podcast this week)
- Cook not allowed to be fired

Google
- Welcome to the TRILLION dollar market cap club
- Even with the concern over AI eating up search - stock is ATH after the recent court ruling
-- Probably also due to free input for their LLMs
- The owner of Rolling Stone, Billboard and Variety sued Google on Friday, alleging the technology giant's AI summaries use its journalism without consent and reduce traffic to its websites.
- The lawsuit by Penske Media in federal court in Washington, D.C., marks the first time a major U.S. publisher has taken Alphabet-owned Google to court over the AI-generated summaries that now appear on top of its search results.
- News organizations have for months said the new features, including Google's "AI Overviews," siphon traffic away from their sites, eroding advertising and subscription revenue.
- Penske, a family-owned media conglomerate led by Jay Penske and whose content attracts 120 million online visitors a month, said Google only includes publishers' websites in its search results if it can also use their articles in AI summaries.
- Without the leverage, Google would have to pay publishers for the right to republish their work or use it to train its AI systems, the company said in the lawsuit. I

NVDA
- China says Nvidia violated anti-monopoly law after preliminary probe
- China’s market regulator on Monday said that Nvidia violated the country’s anti-monopoly law, according to a preliminary probe, adding that Beijing would continue its investigation into the U.S. chip giant.
- Surely if USA allows access to the H20 chip that this will go away....

Tesla Shares
- First, company is not doing well - as a company - but stock is performing
- Elon announced that he invested $1B in Tesla shares (first time since 2020)
- It is being interpreted by the market as a strong vote of confidence in TSLA’s long-term prospects
--- OH MY Robotaxis must be near!
--- Timing on 2 fronts (Oracle and Pay package)
---- Real reason: (an bets on for him Shorting Oracle after the pop)

Billionaire List

NEW CLEAR
- The Trump administration’s top energy official said the US should look to boost its strategic uranium reserve to buffer against Russian supplies and increase confidence in the long-term prospects of nuclear power generation.
- US Energy Secretary Chris Wright comments underscore the Trump administration’s plans to promote nuclear energy as the demand for power soars with the electrification of the economy.
- Russia supplies about a quarter of the enriched uranium needed by America’s fleet 94 nuclear reactors, which generate about a fifth of US electricity.

IPO
- Gemini, the Winklevoss’ crypto exchange, pops more than 14% in Nasdaq debut
- Got to$44 on the open then faded - currently trading at $33 $28
-- Funny how all of these DEFI companies want to trade on Old School exchanges

Cash and Cash Alternatives
- There is over $7 trillion in cash-equivalent investments that have offered an attractive return for no market risk, and while much of that money is institutional or emergency funds savings, some shift out of cash-equivalent assets can be expected as the Fed begins to cut rates.
- Cash of the sidelines - money will pour into markets if rates come down as TINA returns
- - - The cash on the sidelines bull thesis has been debunked many times

On Sideline

Tariff Fun
- Swiss watchmaker Swatch has begun selling a special edition watch with the numbers three and nine reversed on its face in a play on the 39% tariffs President Donald Trump imposed on U.S. imports from Switzerland last month.
- The tariffs - among the highest set by Trump worldwide - were met with shock and dismay in Switzerland, a leading producer of high-end watches and other luxury goods.
- Costing 139 Swiss francs ($175), the watch named "WHAT IF...TARIFFS?" went on sale on Wednesday and is only available in Switzerland, a company spokesperson said on Friday.

Most Hated
-  Shares of Pfizer and Moderna fell on Friday after a report that Trump administration health officials plan to link Covid vaccines to the deaths of 25 children.
- The report comes as Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a prominent vaccine skeptic, moves to change immunization policy in the U.S.
- The report said officials plan to include the claim in a presentation next week to a key vaccine panel that advises the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and plays a key role in shot access.

Close the OpenDoor
-  Keith Rabois, Opendoor’s new chairman, said the company he co-founded needs to slash its workforce as much as 85% to fix its cost structure.
- Rabois returned to Opendoor this week, when the company named former Shopify executive Kaz Nejatian as its new CEO.
- “There’s 1,400 employees at Opendoor. I don’t know what most of them do. We don’t need more than 200 of them,” Rabois told CNBC.
- meme stock that moves on every tweet/Reddit post

Phishing
- Reuters and a Harvard University researcher used top chatbots to plot a simulated phishing scam – from composing emails to tips on timing – and tested it on 108 elderly volunteers. The bots’ persuasive performance shows how AI is arming criminals for industrial-scale fraud.
- “We believe every senior deserves dignity and joy in their golden years,” it read. “By clicking here, you’ll discover heartwarming stories of seniors we’ve helped and learn how you can join our mission.”
- But the charity was fake, and the email’s purpose was to defraud seniors out of large sums of money. Its author: Elon Musk’s artificial-intelligence chatbot, Grok.
- Grok warned a reporter that the malicious email it created “should not be used in real-world scenarios.” The bot nonetheless produced the phishing attempt as requested and dialed it up with the “click now” line.
- Overall, about 11% of the seniors clicked on the emails sent. Five of the nine scam mails tested drew clicks: two generated by Meta AI, two by Grok and one by Claude. None clicked on emails generated by ChatGPT or DeepSeek.

WHO Backs Diet Shots
- The World Health Organization will recommend using weight-loss drugs to treat obesity in adults, according to draft guidance from the agency that urged countries to take the condition seriously as a chronic disease.
-The WHO’s expert committee concluded that the popular GLP-1 drugs, first developed by Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, are part of the solution for the long-term treatment of obesity for patients with a body mass index (BMI) of 30 or above, alongside counseling on lifestyle and behaviour changes.

AND
- FDA issues NVO a warning letter; says Oprah Special misled consumers on Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy, Ozempic, Victoza marketing
_ The video originally appeared on ABC as a Primetime Oprah Special on March 18, 2024 and can also be accessed through ABC’s website.6 The video subsequently appeared on Hulu on March 19, 2024. FDA has determined that the video is false or misleading. Thus, the video misbrands Wegovy, Ozempic, and Victoza within the meaning of the Federal Food, Drug and Cosmetic Act (FD&C Act) and makes its distribution violative.

Crackdown
- HIMS trades down 2.8% yesterday and more today after U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Commissioner, Martin Makary stated that the Super Bowl ad from Hims & Hers "breached" federal law.
- Makary's primary argument is that the ad violated the "fair balance" rule required for prescription drug advertising.
- Omission of Side Effects: The commissioner specifically noted that the Hims ad highlighted the benefits of its compounded weight-loss drugs without mentioning any of the potential side effects. This omission, in his view, is a clear violation of FDA regulations.

Thoughts?
- The Senate has confirmed Stephen Miran, President Donald Trump’s pick to join the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.
- Miran will participate in the Fed policy committee’s upcoming meeting, where the board will consider whether to cut interest rates.
- Miran will also keep his White House position at the helm of the Council of Economic Advisors, but will take an unpaid leave to serve on the central bank board.
- Mole???? Moellleee mole Moleee....

 

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