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Warm-Up
- Tariffs deemed illegal?
- So much for rates coming down - Long bond up again
- Announcing the WINNER of the CTP
- Blame it on AI - new excuse.... Flirty Chatbots

Markets
- NVDIA earnings the high point for a while?
- Good month - August is green - Sept starting out wobbly
- AI News  - Valuations - TO THE MOON

NVDA Earnings
- From last Wednesday
- STRONG: Nvidia reported better-than-expected earnings and revenue on Wednesday, and said sales growth this quarter will remain above 50%
- Earnings per share: $1.05 adjusted vs. $1.01 estimated
- Revenue: $46.74 billion vs. $46.06 billion estimated
- Overall company revenue rose 56% in the quarter from $30.04 billion a year ago, Nvidia said. Year-over-year revenue growth has now exceeded 50% for nine straight quarters, dating back to mid-2023
-Stock opened Thursday at $180 - now trades near $168
--- Some concern over data-center revenue declining 1% from previous quarter due to $4B less in sales of H20 chips

NEW CLEAR
- The Duane Arnold nuclear plant northwest of Cedar Rapids, Iowa is pressing ahead with plans to restart operations by the end of the decade after shutting down for economic reasons in 2020
- NextEra Energy (NEE)
- Duane Arnold would follow similar restarts planned for the Palisades nuclear plant in Michigan and Three Mile Island in Pennsylvania, which plan to resume operations later this year and in 2027
- Big Change on the economics is just 5 years!

USA Travel
- Who needs those pesky visitors anyway
- Overseas travel to the U.S. fell 3.1% year-on-year in July to 19.2 million visitors, according to U.S. government data. It was the fifth month of decline this year, defying expectations that 2025 would see annual inbound visitors finally surpass the pre-pandemic level of 79.4 million.
- New VISA INTEGRITY fees on incoming travelers from many countries
- The extra charge raises the total visa cost to $442 for non-via waiver countries like Mexico, Argentina, India, Brazil and China
- In China, arrivals have remained muted since the pandemic, with July numbers still 53% below 2019 levels. The visa fee also threatens travel from India, where visits are down 2.4% so far this year, driven by a near 18% drop in students.

Tariffs Illegal?
- A divided U.S. appeals court ruled on Friday that most of Donald Trump's tariffs are illegal, undercutting the Republican president's use of the levies as a key inter
- Trump lamented the decision by what he called a "highly partisan" court, posting on Truth Social: "If these Tariffs ever went away, it would be a total disaster for the Country."
national economic policy tool.
- So, now it goes to the Supreme Court (non - partisan?)
- Talk of the Bond Vigilantes making a move if the tariffs struck down because not much to pay the huge deficit and debt encumbered with new OBBBA

 

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Speaking of Rates
- Since the Powell hint of cuts - rates on the rise
- -Longer-Term rates
- Mortgage rates are the highest in months and the 10-Yr is at approx 4.30%
-- Please note, the Fed controls short-term rates.... Some influence on mortgages due to Quantitative easing, but even if rates are dropped does not mean that longer-dated paper will see a drop in the rates

DEE MINIMUM US
- The de minimis exemption, which allowed shipments valued under $800 to enter the country duty-free, came to an end globally last Friday.
- Small business owners on Etsy, eBay and Shopify, for example, relied on the provision to support their marketplace businesses.
- For nearly a decade, shipments valued under $800 were allowed to enter the country virtually duty-free and with less oversight.
- The end of de minimis could cost U.S. consumers at least $10.9 billion, or $136 per family, according to a 2025 paper
- The end of de minimis could cost U.S. consumers at least $10.9 billion, or $136 per family, according to a 2025 paper
- More interesting is that some research shows that a good amount of drugs make their way into the US in de minimus packages.
--- In a fact sheet published on July 30, the White House said 90% of all cargo seizures in fiscal 2024, including 98% of narcotics seizures and 97% of intellectual property rights seizures, originated as de minimis shipments.

Make US Politics look calm
- Thailand's Constitutional Court dismissed Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra on Friday for an ethics violation, in another crushing blow to the Shinawatra political dynasty
- She became the fifth premier in 17 years to be removed by the Constitutional Court, underlining its central role in an intractable power struggle between the governments of the Shinawatra clan and a nexus of powerful conservatives and royalist generals with far-reaching influence.

This is excellent news
- US is moving forward with the “America by Design” initiative
- The Order establishes the National Design Studio and the role of Chief Design Officer to facilitate design improvements in both digital and physical Federal spaces.
- Updating Federal websites to make more intuitive and user friendly
- Currently Only 6% of Federal websites are rated “good” for mobile performance, and 45% of Federal websites are not mobile friendly.

Following Up - Spirit Airline
- Not looking good
- Frontier Air took on and aimed to bury Spirit once and for all
- 2nd Chapter 11 bankruptcy in 6 months
- Presidents letter stated: Blah Blah... We are going though the Chapter 11 process, just like many of companies in the airlines industry have....

Some AI News
- Alibaba is developing a new AI chip
- The chip is specifically for inferencing rather than training but Alibaba will still use semiconductors from other vendors like Nvidia.
- Alibaba said it would invest at least 380 billion Chinese yuan ($53.1 billion) in AI over the next three years.

More IA
- Artificial-intelligence company Anthropic said on Tuesday it is now valued at $183 billion post-money, over twice as much as its earlier valuation, as investor enthusiasm towards AI startups stays strong despite some doubts over tech industry spending.
- The new valuation is a jump from the $61.5 billion post-money valuation in March this year, where it raised $3.5 billion.
- Estimates that the company will be pulling in $5B revenue from what they have done recently

TESLA
- News that Euopean sales are sliding - down 40% in the past year
- Tesla has reportedly sold few cars in India since launching in mid-July 2025, with just over 600 orders placed

Kraft Heinz
- Kraft Heinz will split into two companies, one focused on groceries and the other on sauces and spreads, it said on Tuesday, dismantling a packaged goods giant that never achieved the growth expected when it was formed a decade ago.
- The spinoff, which is expected to close in the second half of 2026, is the latest in a series of rearrangements among major global consumer brands that once embraced the conglomerate model, but are now rethinking their business structure amid sluggish sales, depressed valuations, and tariffs.
- Warren Buffet said he was disappointed in the move
- Shares dropped 7% on the news (so much for unlocking value)

Flirty Chatbots
- Meta has appropriated the names and likenesses of celebrities – including Taylor Swift, Scarlett Johansson, Anne Hathaway and Selena Gomez – to create dozens of flirty social-media chatbots without their permission
- Meta removed some flirty celebrity bots after being questioned by Reuters
- Meta says its own AI created inappropriate images, violating its policies
- Legal expert says Meta's use of likenesses may have violated celebrities' publicity rights

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