DHUnplugged #764: CHINUS Capitalism

China Style Capitalism – CHINUS Capitalism

Some Fed speakers talking 2 cuts now

Fresh set of IPOs entering the market

A NEW Closest to The Pin announcement

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Warm-Up
- China Style Capitalism - CHINUS Capitalism
- Some Fed speakers talking 2 cuts now
- Fresh set of IPOs entering the market
- A NEW Closest to The Pin
- AND a couple of listener limericks

Markets
- New Highs and Crypto looks to breakout
- Apple best week since 2020
- Alts coming to your 401k
- Gold - no longer to be tariff'd
- NVDA chips - not safe?

Fed Speakers
- Some talking 3 rate cuts... End of year?
- CPI and PPI this week so we shall see
-- Seems like kiss ass tactcs to keep job or get promoted

New America Way of Business? - CHINUS
- Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices have agreed to give the U.S. government a share of revenues from certain chips sold in China, the Financial Times reported, in an unprecedented arrangement with the White House.
- In exchange for 15% of revenues from the chip sales, the two chipmakers will receive export licenses to sell Nvidia’s H20 and AMD’s MI308 chips in China, according to the FT.
- The arrangement comes as President Donald Trump’s tariffs continue to reverberate through the global economy, underscoring the White House’s willingness to carve out exceptions as a bargaining tool. (Who is this bargaining with????)

Perplexing
- Perplexity offered to purchase Google's (GOOG) Chrome for $34.5 billion, according to WSJ
- Google doesn’t break out Chrome-specific revenue, analysts estimate its indirect contribution to ad revenue is tens of billions annually. Losing Chrome would weaken Google’s ability to control defaults and gather behavioral data, which are critical for ad targeting
- Analysts suggest Chrome could be worth $50 billion or more if Google were forced to sell, given its user base and strategic importance
-

IPOs
- The U.S. IPO market has surged in 2025, with over 210 listings so far—up 84% from last year. Notable performers include:
- Figma, Inc. – IPO at $33, now trading at $78.11 (+136.70%)
- Ambiq Micro, Inc. – IPO at $24, now $39.47 (+64.46%)
- inkhome Holdings Inc. – IPO at $4, now $7.50 (+87.50%)
- Rich Sparkle Holdings Limited – IPO at $4, now $35.09 (+777.25%)
- Masonglory Limited – IPO at $4, now $12.00 (+200.00%)
- Firefly Aerospace Inc. – IPO at $45, now $50.17 (+11.49%)
- HeartFlow, Inc. – IPO at $19, now $28.75 (+51.32%)

JOBS Report FIX
- BLS Commissioner nominee E.J. Antoni suggested that monthly jobs report could be paused to fix methodology, according to Fox Business interview
- Many are worrying about the FIX - is it a fix or will it be fixed...?
- More than 2,000 people work at the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), including professional economists and survey takers who contribute to the production of the monthly jobs report
- The Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has no direct role in collecting, processing, or altering the monthly jobs report data. Here's a breakdown of how the system is designed to prevent manipulation
---The commissioner does not see the jobs data until the Wednesday before its public release on Friday
- But, let's discuss - how can the commissioner change the numbers?

Intel - 96 hours of fun
- Intel stock up as White House going to force TSM to buy into company
- Intel stock down as White House recommends firing CEO
- Intel Stock up after CEO meeting with Trump in White House

Apple
- Best week since July 2020
- Apple shares rose 13% this week, its largest weekly gain in more than five years, after CEO Tim Apple appeared with President Donald Trump in the White House on Wednesday.
- $400 Billion in market cap with promise to increase spend in America of $100B (chips, manufacturing etc)
- Brings the total promised to $600B since Trump's first term
- There are no official known records that show how much was spent of the $500 billion
- NO TEETH

NVDA- Risk to China
- Nvidia’s chips pose security concerns for China, a social media account affiliated with China’s state media said on Sunday, after Beijing raised concerns over backdoor access in those chips.
- The H20 chips are also not technologically advanced or environmentally friendly, the account, Yuyuan Tantian, which is affiliated with state broadcaster CCTV, said in an article published on WeChat.
- “When a type of chip is neither environmentally friendly, nor advanced, nor safe, as consumers, we certainly have the option not to buy it,” the article concluded.

401ks
- The new White House order directing regulators to expand access to alternative investments in 401(k) plans, like crypto or privately owned companies adds a new layer of risk to the retirement portfolios for ordinary investors that they may not fully understand, investment professionals say.
- Private equity and other alternative asset funds have increasingly been raising capital from wealthy individuals but are traditionally designed for institutional investors and typically include layers of fees. Private equity, for instance, has long had the "2 and 20" structure: managers collect a 2% overall fee, as well as 20% of any gains.
- Risk, lock ups, irregular valuations
- How is this just approved by the White House? The Department of Labor's Employee Benefits Security Administration (EBSA) is the primary government agency that oversees 401(k) plans. They ensure compliance with the Employee Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA) and other relevant legislation.

Softbank - Riding High
- Shares of SoftBank Group ended Friday 10.39% higher at 13,865, paring gains from its record of 14,390 earlier in the session following the company’s higher-than-expected fiscal first-quarter profit.
- SoftBank shares have extended gains to a fourth straight session, and closed at a record high on Thursday, before the company released its earnings.
- SoftBank’s profits for the April to June quarter came in at 421.8 billion yen ($2.87 billion), substantially overshooting LSEG consensus estimates of127.6 billion yen.
- AI bets fueling shares - Vision Fund
- - History:
- Launched Yahoo! Japan in the 1990s
- Acquired Vodafone Japan in 2006 (now SoftBank Corp., Japan’s third-largest wireless carrier).
- Invested early in Alibaba, turning a $20 million stake into tens of billions

Trade Desk
- Shares of The Trade Desk plummeted 39% on Friday, their worst day on record, after the ad-tech company announced the departure of its CFO and analysts expressed concerns about rising competition from Amazon
- The Trade Desk, which went public in 2016, suffered its steepest prior drop in February, when the shares fell 33% on a revenue miss. In its second-quarter earnings report late Thursday, the company beat expectations on earnings and revenue, but the results failed to impress investors.
- The Trade Desk, which specializes in providing technology to companies that want to target users across the web
- Big concern was the growing role of Amazon in the advert space. Also, Meta's AI ad placement probably not helping.

Pulse of the World?
- Maersk CEO flags strong demand ‘pretty much everywhere’ except for the U.S. as outlook raised
- Shipping giant Maersk on Thursday reported better-than-expected quarterly profit, defying trade fears even as the industry navigates a new era of tariff complexity.
- Maersk also raised its full-year guidance and the outlook for global container market volume growth.
--- Maersk raised its full-year 2025 financial guidance, saying underlying EBITDA this year is expected to come in between $8 billion to $9.5 billion, up from previous guidance of between $6 billion to $9 billion.
- “Outside of the United States, we see a continued very strong demand and that is fueling the earnings and the upgrade that we were able to do today,” CEO Vincent Clerc.

SPORTS Hookup
- Walt Disney's ESPN has reached a landmark deal with the National Football League to acquire NFL Network and other media assets from the league in exchange for the NFL taking a 10% equity stake in the sports network, the parties said on Tuesday.
- NFL will take a 10% equity stake in ESPN
- Stake could be worth $2 billion to $3 billion, analysts and industry insiders say
- Potential Conflict of interest? ESPN has a sportsbook - ESPN Bet... (Deal remains subject to regulatory approval)

Lilly
- New weight loss pill effective - 12% reduction in  body weight after 72 weeks late-stage trial
- They bring Eli Lilly’s pill, orforglipron, one step closer to potentially becoming a new, needle-free alternative without dietary restrictions in the booming market for weight loss and diabetes drugs called GLP-1s.

 


 

 

 


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ANNNOUNCING
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FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS

Keith Jacobs
In finance, a trader did crack.
Buxom tracks had investors aback.
While she'd trade with great zest,
And made some quite the best,
Her returns just often won’t rack.

In the Fed halls, a plan did rise,
To tame inflation so outsize'.
With dollar-backed might,
And digital right?
Now wait for a crypto surprise.

 


See this week’s stock picks HERE


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