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INTERACTIVE BROKERS

 Warm-Up
- Fed - Standing Pat
- Tariffs ON ( with some delays, pauses and delays
- India taking Heat
- OPEC at it Again

Markets
-Employment Report - Revisions Gone Wild
- But The Dip (Aka The Bend and Snap)
- Earnings Season - Plenty of CapX
- Boeing making moves  - unions may strike

The Bend and Snap
- That is the markets - any little movement down - snaps right back up (Buy Dip with a Legally Blonde flair)
- Monday saw a huge reversal after the VIX hit 21.50 and small caps were down as much as 3% after the July Employment report and lackluster earnings

Jobs Report
- 4.2% Unemployment Rate
- Only added 73,000 in July
- Revisions for May and June were larger than normal.
- The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for May was revised down by 125,000, from +144,000 to +19,000, and the change for June was revised  down by 133,000, from +147,000 to +14,000.
- With these revisions, employment in May and June  combined is 258,000 lower than previously reported.

THEN.....
- President Donald Trump on Friday fired Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner Erika McEntarfer, hours after the agency reported that job growth in the U.S. had slowed to a near-halt.
- “We need accurate Jobs Numbers. I have directed my Team to fire this Biden Political Appointee, IMMEDIATELY,” Trump posted on Truth Social.

GDP
- Gross domestic product jumped 3% for the second quarter, better than the 2.3% estimate and reversing a 0.5% decline in the prior period.
- Consumer spending rose 1.4% in the second quarter, better than the 0.5% in the prior period.
- While exports declined 1.8% during the period, imports fell 30.3%, reversing a 37.9% surge in Q1.
- HUGE Number - flurry after some Tariff uncertainty lifted in April

OIL
- OPEC+ agreed on Sunday to raise oil production by 547,000 barrels per day for September, the latest in a series of accelerated output hikes to regain market share, as concerns mount over potential supply disruptions linked to Russia.
- The move marks a full and early reversal of OPEC+'s largest tranche of output cuts plus a separate increase in output for the United Arab Emirates amounting to about 2.5 million bpd, or about 2.4% of world demand.
- In a statement following the meeting, OPEC+ cited a healthy economy and low stocks as reasons behind its decision.
- Eight countries to hike September output by 547,000 bpd
- Oil supported by US demands for India to stop buying Russian oil

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Earnings News

Coinbase
- Coinbase shares fell after gains in the cryptocurrency exchange’s subscription revenue failed to offset weaker trading volumes.
- Revenue rose slightly to $1.5 billion from $1.45 billion in the same quarter last year, but fell short of analyst estimates.
- Coinbase reported that retail trading volume, which is typically more profitable than institutional volume, grew 16% year-over-year to $43 billion, but missed the $48.05 billion expected by analysts survey

Reddit
- Revenue grew 78% year-over-year in the second quarter and was 17% above consensus estimates, the biggest beat in the company’s short history as a public company.
- Reddit said third-quarter revenue will be in the range of $535 million to $545 million, ahead of Wall Street estimates of $473 million.
- Adjusted earnings in the third quarter are projected to be in between $185 million to $195 million, ahead of StreetAccount’s estimates of $160 million.
- Shares surged on the news

Berkshire
- Berkshire’s operating profit — those from the company’s wholly owned businesses including insurance and railroads — dipped to $11.16 billion in the second quarter.
- Buffett’s cash hoard of $344.1 billion remained near a record high, though slightly lower than the $347 billion level at the end of March.
- Berkshire was a net seller of stocks for a 11th quarter in a row, dumping $4.5 billion in equities in the first six months of 2025.
- More importantly: The conglomerate also didn’t repurchase any stock in the first half of 2025 even as shares declined more than 10% from a record high.

Apple
- Apple reports biggest revenue growth since December 2021
- Earnings per share: $1.57 vs. $1.43 expected
- Revenue: $94.04 billion vs. $89.53 billion expected
- iPhone revenue: $44.58 billion vs. $40.22 billion expected
- Mac revenue: $8.05 billion vs. $7.26 billion expected
- iPad revenue: $6.58 billion vs. $7.24 billion expected
- Other Products revenue: $7.40 billion vs. $7.82 billion expected
- Services revenue: $27.42 billion vs. $26.80 billion expected
- Gross margin: 46.5% vs. 45.9% expected
- Apple incurred $800 million in tariff costs in the June quarter, Apple CEO Tim Cook said on the call. That came in lower than the $900 million estimate the company provided in May. For the September quarter, assuming no changes, Apple could incur about $1.1 billion in tariff costs, Cook said.
- STOCK DOWN after report

Amazon
- Earnings per share: $1.68 vs. $1.33 expected
- Revenue: $167.7 billion vs. $162.09 billion expected
- Amazon Web Services: $30.87 billion vs. $30.8 billion expected
- Advertising: $15.7 billion vs. $14.9 billion expected
- For the current quarter, Amazon said it expects operating income to land between $15.5 billion and $20.5 billion. Analysts were looking for $19.48 billion
- STOCK DOWN after report

Fall From Grace
- UnitedHealth Group on Tuesday issued a 2025 outlook that fell short of Wall Street’s expectations, as the company’s insurance unit continues to grapple with higher medical costs.
- The company anticipates it will post 2025 adjusted earnings of at least $16 per share, with revenue of $445.5 billion to $448 billion.
- Wall Street analysts had expected 2025 adjusted profit of $20.91 per share, and full-year revenue of $449.16 billion, according to consensus estimates

AMD Earnings
- An OKAY quarter - met expectations on EPS beat revenues, guides revenues for next quarter above analysts estimates
-- Big revenue promises again into the future - but that did not help the stock (dvanced Micro Devices sees Q3 revs $8.4-9.0 bln vs $8.32 bln FactSet Consensus )
- Non-GAAP gross margin of 43% compared to 53% in year-earlier quarter.
- Down 6% after hours

Weird Story
- High Noon has issued a recall of one of its popular vodka seltzer drinks, saying some packages may contain Celsius energy drink cans filled with the alcoholic beverage.
- The cans, labeled as Celsius Astro Vibe Sparkling Blue Razz Edition, were found in certain shipments of High Noon’s Beach Variety 12-packs.
- The issue was traced to a packaging supplier that accidentally sent Celsius-branded cans to High Noon’s facility
- They were distributed to multiple states including Florida, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Virginia and Wisconsin.

FOMC Meeting
- 2 dissents - as expected
- No change  in rate - outlook is fluid
- Still sees risk of inflation
- BUT, now that 50k revisions to jobs number.....?????

Scabs
- More than 3,200 union members who assemble Boeing's fighter jets in the St. Louis area and Illinois went on strike on Monday after rejecting a second contract offer the previous day.
- Boeing Defense said it was ready for the work stoppage and it will implement a contingency plan that uses non-labor workers.
- According to the company, the rejected four-year contract would have raised the average wage by roughly 40% and included a 20% general wage increase and a $5,000 ratification bonus. It also included increasing periodic raises, more vacation time and sick leave.

Joby Deal
- Electric Aircraft business is acquiring Blade's passenger business for $125M
- Reasoning has to do with the commercial operations in Dubai???

Lyft and Baidu
- Baidu will bring its driverless taxis to Europe next year via a partnership with U.S. ridehailing firm Lyft as the Chinese tech giant looks to expand its autonomous vehicles globally.
- The robotaxis will initially be deployed in the U.K. and Germany from 2026 with the aim to have “thousands” of vehicles across Europe in the “following years,” the two companies said.
Interesting as Lyft was always DOMESTIC and this is a big move and new potential competition to Uber

Coinbase -Debase
- Shares of Coinbase slid on Tuesday as the company announced a $2 billion private offering of convertible senior notes.
- Shres down 30% sine high in Mid-July
- Genius Act pushed optimism, then faded?
- RobinHood (hood) taking market share? (up 165% YTD)
--- Comments in Barron's that Coinbase and Hood could be added to SP500

Flow-o-Funds
- With $121 billion flowing into ETFs industrywide in July, the yearly tally hit $677 billion and is now on pace for a record $1.3 trillion for 2025, as tracked by State Street Research
- While U.S. equity ETFs maintained their dominance, netting over $56.9 billion in July, foreign rivals are seeing a renaissance as investors seek more diversification. Non-U.S. equity ETFs saw $24 billion in new money.

In closing...
- Tariffs on Pharma
- President Donald Trump told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” that planned tariffs on pharmaceuticals imported into the U.S. could eventually reach up to 250%, the highest rate he has threatened so far.
- He said he will initially impose a “small tariff” on pharmaceuticals, but then in one year to a year and a half “maximum” he will raise that rate to 150% and then 250%.
- But since we will be getting a 1500% cost cut, this would still be FREE

 

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