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 Warm-Up
- More Deals - We are so Amazing with the Deals!
- Investors turn hot on stocks - like nothing happened!
- Apple making moves - so smart
- Microsoft layoffs - Important information on this if you are one of these

Markets
- HUGE move as tariffs paused for 90 days on China
- Right on cue - most negative sentiment in decades then the squeeze
- China - we have something - Maybe Phase 1.5?
- Drug companies under pressure
- Google update  - Lots of headwinds

Announcing the Winner of the Micron (MU) CTP

Reconciliation BILL - Draft
- House Republicans release text of large reconciliation bill which includes extension of 2017 tax cuts for all income levels, spending cuts (Medicaid and green energy spending), energy reform, immigration reform, and a debt ceiling increase of $4 trillion
- The bill eliminates taxes on tips and overtime.
- It achieves "no tax on social security" by increasing deductions for seniors on the program.
- The bill eliminates several green energy spending programs and ends the EV tax credit early.
- The bill makes auto loan interest tax deductible.
- The bill raises the debt ceiling by $4 trillion.
- The bill raises the State and Local Tax Deduction to $30,000 for people making $400K or less.
- The bill makes changes to the IRS free tax filing program, pending review by a task force.
- Bill includes tax on college endowments and private foundations.

AI Diffusion Rule Repeal
- Wasn't the idea to stop chips from being sold to bad actors?
- Good news for NVDA, Intel, AMD etc...
- Is this good news?

Reality Bites
- A quick weekend meeting and all good
- 90 day pause
- The tariff rate on imported goods to the U.S. from China has been slashed from 145% to 30%, and the tariff rate on imported goods from the U.S. to China has been cut from 125% to 10%
- The Art of the ????
---- So confusing that it is hard to imagine that anyone really knows what is going on at this point.

What Do We Do With this:
- Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Sunday that the 10% baseline tariff rate on imports from other countries is likely to "be in place for the foreseeable future," echoing President Donald Trump's comments from days prior.
- They also said no change in tariffs not matter what China does, then maybe a reduction 80%  maybe
- FAKE PROMISES, Fake News????

China Shipments
- China's exports surged in April even as shipments to the U.S. plunged as businesses bore the brunt of prohibitive U.S. tariffs that kicked in last month.
- Exports jumped 8.1% last month in U.S. dollar terms from a year earlier
- Imports slumped by 0.2% in April from a year earlier (much less that expected)
- China's outbound shipments to the U.S. plunged over 21% in April year on year, while imports dropped nearly 14%, official data showed.

How Much?
- In April 2025, the U.S. government collected approximately $16 billion in net customs duties. This was a significant increase from the previous year, driven by higher tariffs on Chinese goods and other imports
- The budget results indicate that the U.S. collected just over $500 million a day from tariffs in April

Income Received

Inflation Update
- Somehow, not moving (yet)
- Total CPI was up 0.2% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) following a 0.1% decline in March. On a year-over-year basis, total CPI was up 2.3%, versus 2.4% in March. That is the smallest 12-month increase since February 2021.
- Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, was also up 0.2% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) following a 0.1% increase in March. Core CPI was up 2.8% year-over-year, unchanged from March

Income Received

Microsoft
- Cutting 3% of workforce
~6,000 employees getting the axe (BTW If you are one of these, contact me before you do anything - need to understand several key items for your finances and retirement plans)
- “We continue to implement organizational changes necessary to best position the company for success in a dynamic marketplace,” a Microsoft spokesperson said in a statement to CNBC.
- either go to TDI site or email me info@

Finally!
- A new U.S. rule that requires hotel and short-term lodging companies to disclose so-called "junk fees" starts this week.
- Announced by the Federal Trade Commission in December, the rule takes direct aim at the widely loathed charges, which can appear as "resort," "destination" or "hospitality service" fees and purport to grant perks that travelers either don't want or already expect to receive.
- The rule, which also applies to live event ticketing companies, was designed to curtail a practice that allowed businesses to charge more "without looking like you're raising prices,"
- Meanwhile - nothing really seems to be changing.... Look at LYV stock...looks like all is just fine...

Drug Pricing Equalization
- President Donald Trump on Monday revived a controversial policy that aims to slash drug costs by tying the prices of some medicine in the U.S. to the significantly lower ones abroad.
- Trump signed an executive order including several different actions to renew that effort, known as the “most favored nation” policy.
- But, part of the drug cost differential is sue to country subsidies - so how would that work?
-- Other savings:
- “We’re going to cut out the middlemen and facilitate the direct sale of drugs at the most favorite nation price, directly to the American citizen,”
--- OH- will probably need Congressional approval for some of this..
- Within 30 days, the secretary (JFK Jr) will also have to set clear targets for price reductions across all markets in the U.S., according to the officials. That will open up a round of negotiations between HHS and the pharmaceutical industry, officials said, not providing exact details on the nature of those talks.
- If “adequate progress” is not made toward those price targets, HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will impose the most favored nation pricing on drugs through rulemaking.

Apple Price Hike
- So smart!
- Apple is "mulling" the idea of increasing prices on some iPhones
- How smart is that?????
--- Get people nervous and off the fence and go and buy before prices go up!
-- Love it!

More Apple
- Apple's plan to offer AI search options on Safari a blow to Google dominance
- Google gets hit by 7% on this news
- The iPhone maker was "actively looking at" reshaping Safari
-- LOOKING AT
- "People are seeing that Google Search is more useful for more of their queries — and they’re accessing it for new things and in new ways," the company wrote. (Really?)
- Google is the default search engine on Apple's browser, a coveted position for which it pays the iPhone maker roughly $20 billion a year, or about 36% of its search advertising revenue generated through the Safari browser, analysts have estimated.
- Apple to lose this revenue? Or shape for their own benefit?

Plenty of $$$ Still Around
- Perplexity AI is in late-stage talks to raise $500 million at a $14 billion valuation
- The funding is on the lower end of Perplexity’s planned raise - was expecting a $18B valuation
- Perplexity has just under $100 million in annual recurring revenue

Airports
- What is going on at Newark?
- Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy laid out the plans the Trump administration has for fixing the nation's air traffic control system, while blaming the previous administration for its failures
- Radar systems failing????

Qatar is Gifting us Air Force 1?
- $400 Million Gift
- Will go to Presidential Library foundation after term
- Is this a good idea? (Boeing can't seem to get AF1 done from last order)
- Trump struck a deal during his first term to modernize two Boeing 747s to be used as the new Air Force One aircraft. But the fixed-price contract with Boeing has gone more than $2 billion over budget amid repeated delays. The planes may not be completed until at least 2027.

Barron's Magazine Cover
- Money Managers Are the Most Bearish They’ve Been in 28 Years, Our Poll Finds
- Date: May 5th 2025 (Nice contrarian indicator)
- Nearly 60% say the stock market is overvalued, according to Barron’s latest Big Money poll of professional investors.
Weight Loss Drug Update
- We know that "old fashioned" weight loss programs are not bringing in the customers.
- Weight Watchers declared bankruptcy
- What happened to Jenny Craig? (Still there - just looked it up)
- Eli Lilly said on Sunday its drug Zepbound was superior to Novo Nordisk's Wegovy across five weight-loss targets such as reducing waist circumference, citing data from a head-to-head trial.
- The data is the first head-to-head trial comparing the wildly popular medicines, and gives Lilly more firepower as it seeks to gain wider insurance coverage in an obesity drug market estimated to reach more than $150 billion annually by the next decade.

New AI Usages
- Recipes - Looking to come up with a new winning chili recipe. The one I am working on in a Maple Bourbon Chili (bison and short ribs)
- Virtual Companions - AI chatbots and virtual companions like Replika can provide companionship, engage in conversations, and even help with mental well-being.
- Note Taking, meeting summaries
- Car Buying - heard a gent turned on ChatGPT audio during discussion with salesman- asked for replies and how to bring down price and then fed back to salesman (seemed to have worked)
- Crafting Pick up lines - AI can generate pick-up lines, providing users with creative and sometimes humorous ways to start conversations
- Complex math - we used to test a few things and it worked pretty well (financial assumptions)
- Analyzing balance sheets and other financial reports - I have uploaded and some really interesting information pops out
--- This week we had a great TDI Podcast - All about AI and some really interesting items came up - Guest Dan Fagella - Ejmerj Artificial Intelligence

 

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