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 Warm-Up
- Good ECO/Markets = Trump
- Bad ECO/Markets - Biden
- CTP for Micron is underway
- AI wins a horse race
- News from Omaha
- India/Pakistan - India stikes

Markets
- Some Earnings Color
- S&P breaks it streak this week
- KRI +4, +5 (Spearman +100)
- Currency interventions happening

Interesting Timing
- Skechers U.S.A., Inc. the third largest footwear company in the world, today announced that it has agreed to be acquired by 3G Capital, a global investment firm built on an owner-operator approach to long-term investing.
- 3G gets discount as tariffs are softening price
- Helped to move the other names in the space higher

Heads I Win....
- President Donald Trump took credit for the "good parts" of the economy in an exclusive interview with NBC News airing Sunday, but said that the "bad parts" are former President Joe Biden's economy.
- "Ultimately, I take responsibility for everything, but I've only just been here for a little more than three months," Trump said.
- "The tariffs have just started kicking in. ... The tariffs are going to make us rich. We're going to be a very rich country," he added.

In terms of shortages:
- "I don't think a beautiful baby girl needs – that's 11 years old – needs to have 30 dolls," Trump said.
- "I'm just saying [children] don't need to have 30 dolls, they can have three, they don't need to have 250 pencils, they can have five," he added.
- But, Mira Lago has 58 bedrooms, 33 bathrooms, a 29-foot-long (8.8 m) pietra dura marble-top dining table, 12 fireplaces, and three bomb shelters.
---WHAT?

Ford Earnings
- Ford Motor beats by $0.14, misses on revs, co suspends FY25 guidance; says business is strong, adjusted EBIT tracking within prior guidance, excluding new tariff-related impacts
- Based on what the company knows now, and its expectation of how certain details and changes will be resolved related to tariffs, the company estimates a net adverse adjusted EBIT impact of about $1.5 bln for full-year 2025. Given material near-term risks, co is suspending guidance.

Block Earnings (Last week)
- Revenue decreased about 3% from $5.96 billion a year earlier.
-  Gross profit rose 9% to $2.29 billion from $2.09 billion a year earlier. That missed analysts' forecasts of $2.32 billion for the quarter.
- Gross payment volume hit $56.8 billion, missing expectations of $58 billion, according to StreetAccount.
- Stock plunges

 

 

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Palantir Earnings
- Palantir Technologies reports EPS in-line, beats on revs; guides Q2 revs above consensus; guides FY25 revs above consensus
- Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.13 per share, excluding non-recurring items, in-line with the FactSet Consensus of $0.13; revenues rose 39.4% year/year to $883.9 mln vs the $862.17 mln FactSet Consensus.
- U.S. commercial revenue grew 71% year-over-year and 19% quarter-over-quarter to $255 million.
- U.S. government revenue grew 45% year-over-year and 9% quarter-over-quarter to $373 million.
- Co issues upside guidance for Q2, sees Q2 revs of $934-$938 mln vs. $899.44 mln FactSet Consensus.
- Co raises guidance for FY25, sees FY25 revs of $3.890-$3.902 bln vs. $3.75 bln FactSet Consensus. Raises adjusted income from operations guidance to between $1.711 -- $1.723 billion.
- Stock down- probably some profit taking as valuation is a bit stretched

Kentucky Derby
- AI Wins!
- Sovereignty won the 151st running of the Kentucky Derby in Louisville, Kentucky, in a thrilling fight to the finish line on Saturday to capture the first leg of U.S. thoroughbred racing's famed Triple Crown.
- The bay colt thrived in the wet and sloppy conditions at Churchill Downs to finish the 1-1/4-mile race in two minutes and 2.31 seconds, beating the heavy favorite Journalism down the final straight.
- AH fed some prompts into CoPilot and a few horse came out as potential winners.
- - Added some questions about track conditions and other items - Sovereignty came out as the top pick

Omaha
- Warren Buffett said he will ask the board of Berkshire Hathaway to replace him as CEO with his already designated successor, Greg Abel, at year end.
- Buffett noted that he would still 'hang around' to help, but the final word would be with Abel.
- Buffett not selling a single share...

Here is the answer
- Last month's chaos in the bond market now revealed
- Japan says massive Treasury stockpile among tools for US trade talks
- - Was there a little show of potential going on with China and Japan to wake up US?

Netflix Drops
- New levy on movies made outside the US?
- President Donald Trump announced plans to impose a 100% tariff on films produced overseas, stating "WE WANT MOVIES MADE IN AMERICA, AGAIN!"
- Shares in US media and entertainment companies fell, with Netflix and Warner Bros. Discovery down about 3%, and Paramount Global and Walt Disney Co. down about 2%.
- The proposed tariff has raised questions about how it would work, with many films involving global production and unclear valuation for tariff collection purposes.
- How does this work and why is this happening?
- FYI - Movie The Apprentice The film is a joint production of Canada, Denmark, Ireland and the United States.

Winning Streak Over
- Friday - Dow jumped 500 points
- S&P 500 posts longest winning streak in 20 years
- 90 Day extension/Pause on tariffs
- Clearly the collective views tariffs as negative for the world economy

Apple Earnings
- Apple — Shares shed 4% after the iPhone maker reported fiscal second-quarter services revenue of $26.65 billion while analysts had expected $26.70 billion, according to StreetAccount.
- This number still represented an annual increase of 11.65%.

Amazon Earnings
- Amazon posted better-than-expected earnings and revenue for the quarter, but gave soft guidance for the current period. - Amazon is forecasting operating income to land between $13 billion and $17.5 billion, which fell short of the $17.64 billion consensus call, per StreetAccount.
- The company also said tariff and trade policies could affect its guidance.

More Amazon
- Amazon reported a 19% increase in online ad revenue in the first quarter, beating analyst estimates.
- Ad sales climbed to $13.92 billion, while analysts on average were expecting $13.74 billion, according to StreetAccount.
- Although Amazon's online ad business represents a fraction of overall sales, it's emerged in recent years to become the third-biggest platform in the global digital advertising market, behind only Alphabet and Meta.

Credit Suisse Again
- Credit Suisse will pay about $511 million to settle a criminal case for having conspired with American taxpayers to hide more than $4 billion in at least 475 offshore accounts.
- The conspiracy allowed “ultra-high-net-worth and high-net-worth individual clients” of the Swiss corporation to evade their U.S. tax obligations from 2010 through 2021, the Department of Justice said.
- “In doing so, Credit Suisse AG committed new crimes and breached its May 2014 plea agreement with the United States,” DOJ said.
- Slap on the hand

Currency Intervention
- Hong Kong's de-facto central bank stepped into the foreign exchange market on Tuesday as the currency hit the top end of its band for a fourth time this month, spurred by a broader selloff in the U.S. dollar against several low-yielding currencies.
- The Hong Kong Monetary Authority bought $7.8 billion (HK$60.5 billion) against the Hong Kong dollar on Tuesday, and has been intervening since May 2 as the currency repeatedly hit 7.75, the upper limit of its peg to the U.S. dollar.
- Weird moves: the Taiwan dollar which rose an unprecedented 8% over two sessions to reach three-year highs.
------While analysts have found it difficult to determine a precise reason for the rally, they point to the progress in Sino-U.S. trade talks and a general loss of faith in the U.S. currency and its debt as possible triggers for investors rushing to unwind carry trades and buy back home currencies.

Kohls
- Kohl's announced on Thursday that it fired CEO Ashley Buchanan after an investigation found he violated company policies.
- The retailer said its board terminated Buchanan, who became chief executive in January, after the investigation "determined Mr. Buchanan violated company policies by directing the Company to engage in vendor transactions that involved undisclosed conflicts of interest."
- The investigation "found Mr. Buchanan had directed the Company conduct business with a vendor founded by an individual with whom Mr. Buchanan has a personal relationship on highly unusual terms favorable to the vendor and that he also caused the Company to enter into a multi-million dollar consulting agreement wherein the same individual was a part of the consulting team," the retailer said in a Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filing.

Fed Rate decision Wednesday
- Zero expectation of a rate cut
- Even though oil prices falling and concern over the economy
- Unemployment at 4.2% and economy slowing, not in terrible shape
- Also, plenty of inflation markers in the system to keep the Fed on hold

 

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