DHUnplugged #521: Blowing Bubbles

Airlines making changes – could be a great deal for travelers.

Markets putting up some great numbers for August.

The Fed changes the rules of the game.

A big fish story and more.

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HUGE Month for Markets
The Fed pulls off all safety protocols
Presidential Election Odds flipping back and forth
best August for S&P 500 since 1984
BIG FISH STORY ahead

Market Update
Nothing stopping  new highs on the NASDAQ – Up 35%+ for the year
DJIA dancing around the unchanged mark for the year
Bond yields initially moved lower (after Powell Speech) but now on trajectory higher
USD tapping lows – awaiting more economic updates

Big Fish Story
– Weekend Outing
– At least we brought the BBQ
– Water was running low – no phone service

BIG FISH

Fed – Big Change (Important)
– Powell speech at the Jackson Hole Confab (virtual this year)
– Inflation averaging is now something that the Fed is using
– If what you are doing doesn’t work – change the rules?
– Potential for Fed to stay at ZIRP for LONG LONG time to come
– What bubbles will this create?

Friday – Employment Report
– Some concern that rate may back up a bit
– Initial claims numbers been rising past couple of weeks
– Worse numbers could be met with limited concern as Fed no moving
– Better numbers could be met with some cheer – Fed still not moving

Split Update
– Apple and Tesla now completed their splits – stocks still rocketing higher

ZOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM!
– Zoom Video (ZM) smashes earnings estimates
– Massive growth of revenue
– Raised its annual revenue forecast by more than 30%
– Stock up 40% (now worth more than IBM)
– Docusign (DOCU) up 17% on the back of this

PPP Update
– 10 month delay now for foregiveness
– May see some additional provisions in next stimulus bill
– Under $150k PPP may not need to file for forgiveness

Here We Go Again
– Women managers remain woefully under-represented in the fund industry, but they’re doing a better job picking stocks than their male counterparts, at least this year.
– Among some 500 large-cap U.S. mutual funds, those with at least one-third of manager positions held by women have beaten those with no women by 1 percentage point in 2020, data compiled by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. show.
– That’s a slight departure from the previous three years, when the gender difference had little impact on fund performance.
– Woman-managed funds are benefiting from a preference for technology stocks
– Also helping widen the gap is Tesla Inc., which is more widely owned by female managers.
This is a problem – the constant battle of which race, religion, nationality or sex is better.

Europe Virus Update
– Several European countries have reported a jump in new coronavirus cases in recent weeks after a drop in cases over June and July
– Is this part of the election hoax also?

IPOs are coming
– Great time to cash out for many VC’s
– AirBnB, DoorDash, Snowflake, Asana, JFrog, Sumo Logic
– Lot’s of “Cloud Based”

Cutting Limits
– Capital One Financial Corp. is cutting borrowing limits on credit cards, reining in its exposure as the U.S. reduces support for millions of unemployed Americans.
– Reports that anywhere from 1/3 to 2/3 reduction for some people
– “Capital One periodically reviews accounts based on a variety of factors and may make changes to existing credit lines,” the company said.

Japan’s Abe Resigns
– Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe held a news conference on Friday afternoon in which he is addressed the growing concerns about his health after two recent hospital examinations within a week.
– Longest consecutive tenure of any Premier
– Chronic Ulcerative Colitis
– With that – the realization that his 3 arrows in the quiver – AbeNomics did not live up to the benefits it espoused.

Weird
– TikTok Chief Executive Officer Kevin Mayer has left the company, less than three months after he joined the hit short video app, and U.S. General Manager Vanessa Pappas will replace him on an interim basis, according to an internal memo seen by Reuters.
– Why would he resign before a deal is consummated?
– His excuse: “In recent weeks, as the political environment has sharply changed, I have done significant reflection on what the corporate structural changes will require, and what it means for the global role I signed up for”
— Lost out on potential payday or position with new “owner”

Ghost Kitchens are starting to come alive
– Several online only restaurants are popping up around the country
– Ghost kitchens prep and UberEats/Gruhub etc pick up from the location and deliver.
– San Fran and Miami seeing this start to catch on with home delivery becoming more important these days
– Trend here to stay?

Chip Implants
– Elon Musk’s neuroscience startup Neuralink said last week that they expected to detail its latest innovations for implanting minuscule computer chips in human brains, fueling expectations among scientists who closely watch the company.
– Neuralink aims to implant wireless brain-computer interfaces that include thousands of electrodes in the most complex human organ to help cure neurological conditions like Alzheimer’s, dementia and spinal cord injuries and ultimately fuse humanity with artificial intelligence.

Amazon new Product – Halo
– Fitness band
– Can also figure out your emotional state
—- Listens to your tone as you talk and provides feedback f you are angry, frustrated, etc.

Airline – Making Changes
-United Airlines said it is permanently ending flight change fees for most domestic tickets, the latest effort to boost demand in an air-travel industry hit hard by the coronavirus pandemic.
– Watch the fine print here

Drone Alert
– Amazon.com Inc’s drone service has received federal approval that will allow the company to begin testing commercial deliveries through its drone fleet, the e-commerce giant said on Monday.
– Amazon Prime Air, the company’s special service delivering packages in 30 minutes or less, has been approved by the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to test delivering orders using autonomous drones.

Tesla- Smart
– Tesla Inc on Tuesday unveiled its biggest program of new share sales as a public company, seeking to cash in on soaring Wall Street interest in the electric carmaker to raise up to $5 billion that will ease future debt pressures.
– Stock down 1%

Elon!
– Elon Musk Is Now Richer Than Mark Zuckerberg After Tesla Stock Split
– ‘Nuf Said

Foldable Phones
– Why is this a thing? – Never could get much interest but companies still trying
– Samsung, is launching the Galaxy Z Fold 2 today

SUBSCRIPTION HELL!
– BMW’s latest innovations to this end are subscription-based upgrades that can be activated at will — or de-activated, if you don’t keep up payments.
– From heated seats to optional safety features like adaptive cruise control and automatic high-beams, you might just have to keep on paying for it instead of forking over a one-time fee

 


420 Stocks …

CLICK for list of “Pot Stocks”

Stocks to watch: CGC, STZ, TLRY, CRON, MJ, NBEV

 


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Closest to The Pin – Macy’s (M)

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UPDATE – NEW ETF – Global X Millennials Thematic ETF Challenge!

The top holdings of Global X Millennials Thematic ETF (MILN) include stocks many investors would expect, such as Facebook, LinkedIn and Amazon, which take advantage of the tech tendencies of millennials. But some names might be more surprising like real estate investment trusts AvalonBay Communities and Equity Residential, and Home Depot, which could benefit from millennials moving out of the home of their parents.

We are creating the DH Old Codger Index Portfolio to compete against this new ETF to see how “old school” stocks do in comparison. Companies in our index will include: (updated names as of 8/29/16)

We have the performance summary running (daily and since inception of 5/6/16) – DHOCI vs. Millennials ETF Battle


Bill Ackman Plan – Retirement For All
– Each child born in the U.S. would receive $6,750 in a government-funded basket of index funds that could only be tapped at retirement.
– Assuming 8% returns over 65 years from birth to retirement, that total would ultimately exceed $1 million, and it would cost the government about $26 billion a year, if the birthrate holds.

30 States
– 30+ states have approved the additional $300 per week of unemployment provided by Federal Government
– Workers eligible for the aid will get an extra $300 a week on top of their current benefits.
– Only 2 states so far are kicking in the additional $100 per week.
– Eligible workers will get the payments automatically and don’t need to apply for them separately, according to the latest information from state authorities.
– However, to be eligible for the assistance, many workers must take an additional step and self-certify in their online portals that they are unemployed or partially unemployed due to disruptions caused by Covid-19

Robinhood – Complaints
– Over the first half of the year, U.S. consumer protection agencies received more than 400 complaints about Robinhood — roughly four times more than competitors like Charles Schwab Corp. and Fidelity Investments’ brokerage unit.
– The grievances, obtained via a public records request to the Federal Trade Commission, depict novice investors in over their heads, struggling to understand why they’ve lost money on stock options or had shares liquidated to pay off margin loans.

Rob’n Hood

Fed Limericks

Misa you-sef-pour
There once was a old man who tweeted

Without easing he was defeated.
It was never enough,
He acted so tough,
With the Fed it was always heated.

JCD Score ()

Stephen Maratea
The Fed’s scheme portends a happy ending
With no regard for unlimited spending
The PhD’s being shrewd
The rest of us getting screwed
Leaving the Fed to keep on pretending

JCD Score ()


See this week’s stock picks HERE


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