Historical wartime market performance explored with @therealdvorak
The new year starts with investors looking to get in on the action – no matter how frothy market conditions have become.
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WELCOME BACK – (2) 2019 Compilation shows – Thanks to Ryan Rediske for his help
Holiday / New year Update?
Big Ending to 2019 – Slow Start for 2020
Disruption in the Middle East
Manufacturing Falls Further
Employment Report on Friday!
A look at performance during wartime (SHOTS/ROCKETS FIRED TONIGHT)
– Phase 1 Signing on January 15th
– Global Market Slump on IRAN “take-out” news
– Gold at 7-year high and climbing – $1,600 breach on Iran retaliation
– Bitcoin range-bound until this week – BOOM – $8,500
Best Story of the Year? (2019)
– Former Nissan Motor Chairman Carlos Ghosn Escape from Japan
– House Arrest – somehow gets out and flies to Lebanon (no extradition policy)
– Out of a Mission Impossible Movie
– First, somehow he gets on a train to Osaka. Goes to a hotel with two collaborators.
– Two collaborators left the hotel shortly before 10 p.m., carrying a large box and a case for musical instruments, Ghosn is not seen with them. He is INSIDE…
– The two men headed to Kansai Airport and boarded a private jet, which took off at 11:10 p.m.
– The entourage flew to Turkey and arrived in Lebanon on Dec. 30.
– No question that there is a healthy dose of froth in the markets….
– The U.S. manufacturing sector fell into its deepest slump in more than a decade in December as the U.S.-China trade war kept a lid on factory output, orders and employment
– The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said its index of national factory activity fell to 47.2 last month from 48.1 in November. It was the lowest reading since June 2009
– ISM Services – Holding near 55
TESLA – RECORD HIGH
– Tesla Inc beat Wall Street estimates for annual vehicle deliveries and met the low-end of its own target, sending shares to a record high in a vindication for Chief Executive Elon Musk after a few turbulent years.|
– Boosted by demand for its mass-produced Model 3 sedans as overseas sales pick up, Tesla on Friday said it delivered 112,000 vehicles in the fourth quarter, including 92,550 Model 3s and 19,450 Model S/X SUVs, which was above expectations of 104,960 vehicles.
– Market cap just about the size of Ford and GM combined (Tesla $84 billion – F/GM $86 billion)
– Largest car manufacturer in America (Has eclipsed Ford’s highest ever market cap over its history)
– Volkswagen ($98 billion)
– The Trump administration is banning flavored e-cigarette pods and flavored liquid nicotine products, with the exception of menthol and tobacco flavors.
– So now no one can buy ?? Regardless of age?
– Apple and Microsoft, which surged 85% and 54% this year, respectively, together accounted for nearly 15% of the S&P 500’s advance in 2019, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices
– Their influence to the cap-weighted index this year is greater than the next eight biggest contributors combined.
– Amazon.com Inc and its Ring home security camera unit have been sued by an Alabama homeowner who said the cameras’ defective design leaves purchasers vulnerable to cyberattacks.
– In a proposed class action filed on Thursday, John Baker Orange said an unknown hacker recently accessed his Ring camera while his children, ages 7, 9 and 10, were playing basketball on the driveway, and through its speaker system encouraged them to move closer to the camera.
– Uber Technologies Inc on Tuesday said its founder and former CEO Travis Kalanick will resign from the company’s board of directors.
– Going to be moving to CloudKitchens (kitchen only restaurants to supply food delivery)
– He has said that this is going to bigger than UBER
Bet on It?
– Daily fantasy sports company and bookmaker DraftKings is merging with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC), allowing it to become public while forgoing the typical IPO process.
– DraftKings is combining with Diamond Eagle Acquisition Corp (DEAC), a SPAC with a market cap of roughly $500 million, and SBTech, a betting and gaming technology company.
– Remember when this was shut down for a while – now it seems they came up through the ashes as fantasy sports betting has been somewhat legalized.
– Federal law specifically exempts fantasy sports contests from the prohibitions of the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act, or UIGEA. At the state level, legislation and regulation vary state-to-state. (Some states still prohibit)
Not Getting Any Better
– Boeing could raise as much as $5 billion in debt to help cover expenditures that could top $15 billion in the first half, The Wall Street Journal reported
– They have plenty of cash on hand – but at these ultra-low rates – why not borrow it?
Will Middle East issues bring a correction?
– Bank of America Merrill Lynch said the S&P 500 has the tendency to dip 6% to 7% on geopolitical shocks, but the firm believes most of the loss will be recovered in the subsequent three months.
– Is this a geopolitical shock?
– US not as vulnerable to Oil price shocks as it once was – in fact may benefit S&P earnings…
– A look at wartime returns over history
420 Stocks …
Stocks to watch: CGC, STZ, TLRY, CRON, MJ, NBEV
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UPDATE – NEW ETF – Global X Millennials Thematic ETF Challenge!
The top holdings of Global X Millennials Thematic ETF (MILN) include stocks many investors would expect, such as Facebook, LinkedIn and Amazon, which take advantage of the tech tendencies of millennials. But some names might be more surprising like real estate investment trusts AvalonBay Communities and Equity Residential, and Home Depot, which could benefit from millennials moving out of the home of their parents.
We are creating the DH Old Codger Index Portfolio to compete against this new ETF to see how “old school” stocks do in comparison. Companies in our index will include: (updated names as of 8/29/16)
We have the performance summary running (daily and since inception of 5/6/16) – DHOCI vs. Millennials ETF Battle
– Yum! Brands struck the first major restaurant acquisition of 2020, announcing Monday it has entered into a definitive agreement to purchase The Habit Restaurants, Inc. for $375 million, or $14 per share in cash.
– The Habit Burger Group, founded 1969 in California, has more than 270 restaurants in 13 states (California, Arizona, Utah, New Jersey, Florida, Idaho, Virginia, Nevada, Washington, Maryland, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and South Carolina) as well as seven international restaurants.
Jeremy Siegel’s Latest Prediction
– Siegel is forecasting that the Dow may hit 40,000 in the next four or five years, unless something derails the market’s bull run.
– How is that for a prediction….
Bad Bad Pizza Pizza Idea
– Little Caesars Enterprises Inc will partner with DoorDash Inc to provide pizza delivery services at 3,600 restaurants in the United States and Canada, starting on Monday, DoorDash said.
– While pizza restaurants helped pioneer the idea of delivering food to people’s houses years ago, Little Caesars – the world’s third-largest pizza chain – has not offered delivery until now.
Just one…..Fed Limericks
There was a big man who said to cut
To the Fed he wouldn’t shut up
Fed Rates should come down
Hey – Powell you’re a clown
Said The Donald as his scholarly rebut.
Last Week’s BrainTeaser
You leave home and go to your right. You reach a corner and turn left. You reach another corner and turn left again. You reach another corner and turn left again and go home. When you get there, there is a person with a mask there waiting for you. What’s happening? Dvorak Difficulty Score (A) (ANSWER : You are Playing Baseball)
NEW This week:
First, I threw away the outside and cooked the inside.
Then I ate the outside and threw away the inside.
What did I eat?
Dvorak Difficulty Score ( )
See this week’s stock picks HERE